Zero Sum Games

By TOM SERPO

Travis Rogan,an American Investment banker working in London, receives a mysterious phone call inviting him to a meeting of "mutual interest" with an  unkown person in an undisclosed location.He accepts, then agrees to join the business of a notorious Saudi family and finds himself in a world more competitive and uncompromising than investment banking. Surrounded by intoxicating wealth,corruption and spies he has to negotiate a pathway to escape the conflicting national interests of Israel and Iran, who are supported by powerful global alies. The stakes are very high with nuclear confligration a real possibility in the Middle East.Will the deadly situation be resolved in a zero sum game or will there be no winners or losers?

• Language: English
• Publisher: Serpo publishing
• Release date: Jan 31, 2024
• ISBN: 9798224683772

TOM SERPO

An academic and author in economics and business he moved into investment banking and lived/worked in London,Singapore,Riyadh and Dubai.He managed multi billion $ for individuals,banks and government agencies across asset classes and countries. Zero Sum Games is the first book  in a series of Thrillers.

Book preview

Chapter 1

It all started with a phone call on a wet, cold January morning.

‘Travis, I have a Mr Al Quemsi on the line for you’ my secretary Sarah said in her usual monotonous voice.

‘Who is he and what does he want ?’ I responded in an abrupt manner which reflected the fact that my mind was somewhere else. I was watching my Bloomberg screens monitoring the global currency markets for the Euro/US$ for any potential reaction to the market briefing taking place in the European Central Bank. It was concerning the real growth of the economies in the Euro Zone and how, if at all, the bank proposed to stimulate the current poor growth scenario.

The market players who anticipate such market movements and buy or sell before they occur will increase or protect the value of their funds, those who do not will lose value in their funds. Global financial markets are a series of Zero Sum Games. For some players to make money, some have to lose it.

Working on behalf of my clients, my job was to make more than I lost! Fund managers know that the performance of their portfolios will be used to evaluate their professional abilities and influence bonus payments. Given that every fund manager has a very strong belief in their ability to outperform other managers and the markets, positive portfolio performance is a necessary ingredient to sustain such egos. In the Global Financial Markets, people with outrageous opinions of themselves are very easy to find!

‘Hi, this is Travis Rogan, how can I help?’ I smiled as I answered the phone remembering my recent Dealing with clients Citibank course.

‘Mr Rogan thank you for taking the time to talk. My name is Sulaiman Al Quemsi. I represent the interests of a significant family group in the Middle East. Is it possible that we could meet soon to discuss a delicate and important matter that might be of great interest to you?’

‘Mr Al Quemsi, have we met?’ I replied with intrigue.

‘No, Mr Rogan I have not had that pleasure. However, I do know quite a lot about your professional achievements. Let me just say that you have been selected from a very special group of people reviewed by my clients and we would like to meet with you’

‘Mr Al Quemsi, if this concerns the possibility of Citibank managing money for your clients I would ask you to contact the Head of our Business Development, a Mr Neil Heywood. I can have my secretary give you his contact details.’

‘No, Mr Rogan, this is not why I am calling. My clients want to talk to you on a very confidential and personal matter which is not related to your current employer.’

‘Shit’ I thought, these guys from the Middle East always are so secretive and manic about everything. Straight talking was not a cultural characteristic. Losing patience, I decided to end this distraction from my real work.

‘Mr Al Quemsi, I am afraid I have a full schedule this week and next, so any meeting so soon is impossible.’

‘That is not a problem Mr Rogan as my clients want to invite you to meet them this weekend somewhere in Europe. We will make all of the arrangements. I have taken the liberty of leaving an invitation and full details of the arrangements with the concierge in your apartment building in Shad Thames. You will find my contact details in the information and I will assume that you will be joining us unless you contact me before Friday. I look forward to our meeting. Good Day Mr Rogan.’

Click. I was left holding the instrument of a one way conversation. I sat motionless holding the phone with my mouth open. What the hell was that all about? Who was this guy and who are his mysterious clients?

I walked out of my office to talk to my able secretary Sarah, sitting in her cubicle in front of my office.

‘Sarah, do you have any details on that last call?’

‘No Travis, I just picked up and the guy asked for you’ she replied.

I was intrigued by the whole scenario but tried to put it out of my mind and got back to my Bloomberg and everyday work for the rest of the day. Maybe it was all a joke by one of the other guys in the department. Messing with people’s personal lives and particularly their egos was an implicit part of the team environment in Citibank and similar institutions. Reputations could be won or lost by perpetrating such cons and how you reacted was monitored.

It was not until around 7.30pm when I reached my apartment building. Sid, the concierge greeted me with a smile and a chocolate box sized package.

‘Evening Travis. This was dropped off by a chauffeur driving a Rolls Royce!"

I accepted it dubiously and took the lift to the tenth floor. My peaceful sanctuary, contrasting with the high pressured everyday life at Citibank.

As usual, I put on my sound system already loaded with my favourites,  pulled out a bottle of Chardonnay from the fridge. and popped the cork. A ritual which represented the beginning of my time every evening.

The rhythmic melody of Gregorian Chants filled the room as I poured myself a full glass of wine and walked to the French windows to survey the view of the river Thames and the city. I picked up the package and removed the gold coloured wrapping paper to reveal a dark red leather box and flipped open the lid. Inside was a white satin inlay with two gold pens nestled in the satin. On the inside of the lid was the iconic Cartier brand. I carefully removed the pens, one cartridge and the other ballpoint and noticed both had TCR, my initials engraved on the side.

There was an envelope with a single piece of parchment folded precisely to fit. Unfolding the paper I had an overwhelming sense of danger and adventure, perhaps some sort of warning of what might follow.

Written in an exquisite hand was a simple message:

Mr Rogan, a car will collect you on Friday at 16.30 pm. Please pack a bag and your passport.You will be back in your apartment by 21:00 pm on Sunday. Call me on 00966567026928 if you decide not to accept by 2100 hrs on Thursday. Please accept this small token from my client.

Sulaiman Al Quemsi. 

If this was all a con by any of my colleagues it was the best ever, I thought! I looked at my Rolex watch, standard equipment for bankers worldwide. It was just after 8 pm, which meant I had 24 hrs to make a decision that I somehow knew would change my entire future.

I poured another glass of wine and moved out on to my small balcony. The lights of London glittered before me with the Tower of London in the distance to my right. I took a deep breath and considered if I should accept the invitation. Meet a client of a guy I had never heard of in some unknown location to discuss something that should be of great interest...

Chapter 2

The superfluous alarm clock rang at 6.45am on Thursday but I was already wide awake as I had spent most of the night pondering my decision. By the time I was under the shower, I had decided to go, even if just to satisfy my curiosity concerning Mr Al Quemsi and his enigmatic client. After all, what did I have to lose? My thoughts then turned to what I should include in a weekend bag to use in an unknown location in Europe in January.

Arriving at my office at my usual time of 7.45am, I decided to to find information on Mr Al Quemsi that might give me some ideas on who his client might be. I opened Google search and entered his name. A number of people called Sulaiman Al Quemsi came up, but none seemed to fit his profile... or the very little I knew about him. Next, I tried Linked in and other social media sites. Again, a number of people with the name, but no-one who seemed to fit.

Disillusioned, I turned my attention to my work, checked the markets and looked at the changes in the values in my portfolios and reviewed the presentation I had prepared for a meeting at 12pm with one of our big clients, a sovereign Wealth Fund from an emerging market in Asia.

I was the lead manager for the $100 million portfolio, investing in Global bond and equity markets, often called a ‘balanced portfolio’ as I had been asked to make a presentation to review the performance over the past twelve months. At 11.55am our team, including Neil, our head of business development, Peter, the guy managing the equity allocation in the portfolio and myself entered the meeting room which had already been set up with audio visuals and hard copies for all involved. Such reviews were usual on an annual basis or if requested, like this one, by the client. I enjoyed such meetings, even if the performance of the portfolio was less than desirable, as it gave me the opportunity to explain what, why and when we had managed the funds in response to market conditions.

The client team consisted of the Chief Investment Officer and two of his fund managers who were responsible for monitoring our management of the money. As fund managers we always preferred to deal with clients who understood the problems of managing money in complex markets. Unfortunately, in my experience, many clients had very little understanding of the markets or money management which was obviously the major reason for hiring external managers such as Citi or one of the hundreds of other teams in a multi-trillion dollar industry. Dealing with clients was difficult at the best of times, but very difficult if the clients had unrealistic expectations and little understanding of the markets.

After a 30 minute run-through of the presentation I asked if there were any questions. Mr Rogan, our CEO wants to know why our portfolio return, managed by Citi, has underperformed the return on our local equity market over the time concerned. He asks if we should consider moving the funds into our local markets? one of the fund managers asked. I could feel the collective wince of our team and had to control myself to preserve a professional approach.

"As you know, we are running a portfolio based on your explicit mandate to allocate on average 60% of the funds to specified global equity markets and 40% to specified Global bond markets. The benchmark, the target return that we as managers are trying to outperform is a composite of 60% of the performance of the Global equity markets, as measured by the Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI) and 40% of the Global bond market performance measured by the JPMorgan Global Bond Index. Last year the benchmark return was 6.4%, our portfolio return was 7.27%, meaning that we significantly outperformed our benchmark by 1.87%, or 187 basis points, net of fees. A very good performance relative to our manager ‘peer group’ who managed similar portfolios against the same benchmark" I stated clearly and continued.

I am sure you all know that your local equity market is an emerging market and is not in the Global market benchmark, so we cannot invest within the market. Markets such as this are very volatile, small and represent very high risks to any investor. The allocation of your funds according to your mandate has a much lower risk to suit your stated investor objectives.Your local market or indeed any other emerging equity market may at times offer much higher returns but also much higher losses over any time period. Please explain to your CEO that comparing the returns of any market or asset to those of any other is a little like comparing apples with pears, inappropriate! To estimate our performance in managing the portfolio, it is only useful to look to the benchmark performance and that of other managers with similar mandates. As you can see, for the last year and over the past three years, our performance ranks us in the top quartile (25%) of all Balanced Fund Managers.

After a pause they replied Mr Rogan, thank you for your very full response.We will pass on your report and the very useful information on relative performance to our CEO and Investment Committee.

Neil, our sales guy summed up and thanked our visitors in the usual way and the meeting ended. We all moved to Balls Brothers, a nearby bistro, where we had reserved a table for 8 for lunch. Neil had invited two of his colleagues, both attractive ladies to join us and lighten our load. This always worked, as the presence of ladies diverted the discussion away from the markets, performance and reviews.

Thursdays were very popular days for meetings with clients from the Middle East and Asia, as they could use the meeting as an excuse to be in London over a weekend, which in the Gulf is Friday and Saturday. Pre-lunch meetings were favoured as it was very likely that such a meeting would be followed by an expensed lunch and lots of alcohol. Indeed, the restaurant business in London owes a lot to the bankers and asset managers of the city, where the bill could often top £100 per person, mostly on drinks. Indeed, the average bottle of wine in some restaurants is close to this price and could be much, much higher and all on the expense account. Life in the city does have its advantages!

The rest of the day passed me by as my mind was focussed on the weekend and my meeting with Mr Al Quemsi and his client.

On Friday I had another presentation to a client team from a local authority in the Midlands, pre-lunch of course. These guys were very different to our friends the day before. Firstly, they were both experienced fund managers who understood the markets well. Secondly, they were personalities who talked to our staff often and were always a pleasure to deal with and thirdly, they regarded this annual pilgrimage to London as an opportunity to sample all that the big city has to offer.

The presentation on the performance of our management of their Global bond portfolio went very well. We had outperformed the benchmark by 0.5%, or 50 basis points over the time period which was pretty good. After a few questions on our expectations on market movements it was time for lunch. This time none of our female colleagues would join us as we knew that our guests wanted to sample the best entertainment available every Friday afternoon in the East End of London.

We jumped into two taxis and headed for Shoreditch and Browns Pub, a regular haunt for bankers and others on Fridays. The place was packed with Alpha Males representing all of the financial services in the city: accountants; brokers; Lloyds List names; bankers; and fund managers like ourselves. In the middle of the room and centre of attention was a platform with a pole running up to the ceiling. Dangling upside down from the pole was a near naked exotic dancer who had the attention of the entire population of the room while she performed in time to booming Beyonce tune.

What can I get you all said Neil, a regular who had some strategy to beat the crowds around the bar and get us all drinks before we were all at pensionable age. We had all brought large numbers of £1 coins to donate to the dancers who did the rounds of the room after their shift on the stage was over, every 5 songs or so.

The clients were fully engaged when the drinks arrived and we pushed our way to the stage. The dancer caught the eye of one of our guests, dismounted from the pole and after a series of wiggles and bends, approached the guy, grabbed his tie and pulled him on to the stage. A huge cheer went up as the Alphas smelled humiliation and degradation of one of their competitors.

On stage in his cheap suit and shirt and tie, he looked like a fish out of water. The dancer, now completely naked except for tassels on her nipples and white knee length boots, played with him to the delight of the crowd. They were screaming advice and abuse in equal measure as she grabbed his tie and removed it with panache. She then proceeded to hold it between her legs and pull it back and forward between her legs, which left little to the imagination. Our client stood like a statue, helpless and completely at the mercy of the dancer. When the song finished, she positioned the now very moist tie around his neck and kissed him on the cheek.

He stumbled back to our group, red faced and speechless. I bet you never wear that tie again, particularly with your wife! Neil blurted out. I was sure he would treasure the tie and his experience forever.

At 2.45 pm I bid my farewells, telling the clients I had another meeting and got a cab back to my apartment on the other side of the Thames. As I parted, the spectacles of Tim, one of my fund managers, were being ‘polished’ on the nipples of the gorgeous black beauty who had ownership of the stage. I could not help thinking what Tim’s wife in Cobham would think if she knew what was going on!

It was around 3.30pm when I arrived back at my apartment building, after 3pm on Friday was rush hour traffic as many people began the weekend exit early to beat the rush. I showered and changed, put together my weekend bag with a couple of pairs of trousers, two polo shirts, a couple of casual dress shirts and an additional pair of shoes. I checked for my passport and wallet, which included some Euro notes from previous trips and poured myself a Jack and coke and collapsed on the sofa.

At 4.30pm precisely the phone rang,  Travis, there is a car and driver waiting for you at out front’ said Sid the concierge. I’m on my way Sid" I blurted.

Sid winked at me as I went through the reception. Away for a couple of nights Sid, back on Sunday. Keep your eye on my place will you?

Have a good trip Travis he responded.

Outside, I was met by a very large man dressed in a black suit, a peaked chauffeur’s hat, white shirt and red tie. He was holding the rear door open of a large, black Mercedes S500.

Good evening Mr Rogan. My name is Drake. You will find a file on the seat next you with some information for you. Please relax and enjoy the journey to the private airport which will take us around an hour depending on traffic he purred.

The cream leather seats crackled as I slid in to the back seat. All the windows were tinted and there was a tinted partition between the front and back seats, which provided passengers with complete privacy. The car looked and smelled brand new. It had an array of controls for air conditioning, seat positioning and others which I could not work out.

I picked up the file and opened it to the first page, which was a letter of welcome.

Mr Rogan,

Thank you for joining us. The car will take you to a private airport in Kent, about one hour from your building. You will be met at the airport and all arrangements have been made. The flight will take around two hours and you will be met at the destination airport and accompanied by car to the venue for our meeting. I hope your journey is smooth and comfortable. Please ask any of the staff for any assistance you may need.

With Best Wishes,

Sulaiman Al Quemsi.

I was shocked to see this was the entire contents of the file! I still had no idea where I was heading, other than it was within two hours flying time of Kent, or who I was going to see. Frustrated, I pressed the intercom button, Drake have you any idea where I am going or who I am going to meet?

Sorry Mr Rogan, he replied. My instructions were to pick you up and drive you to the private airport near Maidenhead.

Ok I muttered. Thanks anyway.

I considered my options:

1. I could ask the driver to turn around and take me back to London. If I did this I would never know what this was all about or anything about the enigmatic ‘client’.

2. I could sit back and enjoy the ride and see what would happen. As a player in the financial markets this sounded like everyday professional life. Experience had shown me that in uncertain conditions, rash knee jerk reactions do not tend to produce positive or desirable outcomes.

Options considered, I sat back and watched the Kent countryside flash past. After a further 40 minutes of driving we turned off the main road onto a country road that eventually took us to a small private airport.We stopped at double gates, until we were waived through onto a runway stopping next to a very smart private jet with an open door and steps.

As we pulled up alongside, a tall beautiful woman dressed in an elegant tailored uniform appeared at the top of the stairs. She had a two-piece suit with a sleek knee-length skirt and fitted jacket over a white cotton blouse. Her long legs were encased in black stockings with shiny black patent leather shoes and enormous stiletto heels. From my seat in the car she looked 7 feet tall! She descended the steps and greeted