See How They Run

By Joseph Steranka

The process taken to develop a key horse procedure (KHP) that leads to the selection of winners in more than 50 percent of their thoroughbred horse races is described. The procedure is objective and requires no special knowledge about horse racing (trainers, jockeys, breeding, weights, etc.). The KHP contains multiple methods for defining the winning horse in a race. Statistical tests with a confidence level of over 95 percent yield results showing the key horses win in a range of 51 to 63 percent with a return on investment (ROI) in a range of 26 to 34 percent.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Fulton Books, Inc.
• Release date: Jun 28, 2023
• ISBN: 9798887313221

Book preview

Table of Contents

Title

Copyright

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Normal Results in Horse Racing

Chapter 3: What You Will Find in This Book

Chapter 4: This Research Project

Chapter 5: The Database

Chapter 6: Processing the Data

Chapter 7: Analysis and Procedure Development

Chapter 8: Testing

About the Author

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See How They Run

Joseph Steranka

Copyright © 2023 Joseph Steranka

All rights reserved

First Edition

Fulton Books

Meadville, PA

Published by Fulton Books 2023

ISBN 979-8-88731-321-4 (paperback)

ISBN 979-8-88731-322-1 (digital)

Printed in the United States of America

Chapter 1

Introduction

It's the first race of the day, and my horse is on the outside, passing the field, in the turn for the stretch, then he moves to take the lead a length from the finish line! Ahh—how great it is to win!

I enjoy a day at the track. Most often, I go on a weekday when there are a number of retired folks, such as myself, around. We are serious players, but our wagers are not. Most often, we limit ourselves to two- or five-dollar bets. We get as much pleasure out of winning with these small bets as the players with their more serious bets. Once in a while, we hit a nice exacta or triple, and we can add some bacon to those beans for supper.

Take a look around the next time you go to the track. On a weekday, it's an older crowd with many retired folks; on weekends, the crowd is a younger one, which had been strapped to the job all week; only a few retirees are around. Almost any day though, you may find someone making serious bets. I recall a time when Harry, an acquaintance of mine, had chided a guy, Sam, who was ruing the loss of a triple.

After looking at Sam's losing ticket, Harry said, Ah, it wouldn't have paid much anyway; it was chalk.

Sam hotly replied, Sure, but did you see the size of the bet? It's more than you bet all week.

Enjoying a day at the track is great, but winning makes it even better.

I recall, particularly well, a day at the Bowie Race Track in the 1960s. I was looking over a maiden race with a horse on which I had bet ten days earlier. On that day, the horse lost; the track was wet, and the horse was doing well on the outside while in the near turn into the stretch. It was gaining ground and leaning inward when its feet slipped sideways; the horse near went down.

Anyway, the horse fell behind and lost. Today, however, was another day, and the odds on the horse were ten to one, and the track was dry. I put a few bucks to win and place on the horse. The odds rose to twenty to one by the time the race began and rose even more as the totalizers caught up with all of the wagers. The horse won. I collected $101 and change for win and place.

As I was going back to my seat, a fellow player I often saw at the track said, I see you have a few dollars, put some on the exacta in the next race.

I forgot the numbers he gave me. I followed through, and I got another $100-plus from the exacta. Such days don't happen often, but I'll take them anytime they come around.

I'm Joe. I'm a meteorologist. I'm retired now. It may be the challenges of producing quality weather forecasts that led me to the challenges of finding winners in horse races. I grew up in the field of meteorology before the electronic age of weather forecasting; it was better termed a seat of the pants age. Many factors were considered when preparing a weather forecast: clouds, temperature, wind, pressure, moisture, and present weather. These factors, when put together covering a geographical area, provided a picture of that which existed at the observational time of the factors, a weather map.

The map showed what was current; a series of earlier maps allowed a determination of what took place to reach the current map. In forecasting, the object is to determine what the future map will look like, be it in hours as well as days. Decades ago, this was done manually; today, it is done electronically. The forecasters in the days of yore did splendid work and produced forecasts of high quality. Forecasters gained meteorological wisdom with age. Experience was the best teacher. The electronics of today have taken over the primary role of weather forecasting. Today's forecasters accept the product of electronics; they distribute and explain that which the electronics have produced.

My role in meteorology began as a weather observer and advanced to forecasting and then research.

In research, I led or participated in projects which involved the relationship between observational data and following weather events which took place. Based upon satisfactory findings in such a relationship, observational data was put to work to foretell the outcome of forthcoming weather events. The projects involved a high degree of what I call number crunching and,