How to Handicap NFL Football The Smart Way

By Ken Osterman

This book contains the entire book The Quick and Dirty NFL Football Handicapping Method. It also contains supplemental information to improve your handicapping, along with several spot play angles.

 

The following is a description of The Quick and Dirty NFL Football Handicapping Method.

 

The purpose of this book is to explain a fundamental approach to making a profit betting on professional football games, especially for those with little time to handicap them.

 

This method will help you find an overlay in the point spread using the simplest and quickest method possible.

 

The Quick and Dirty NFL Football Handicapping Method teaches you how to create your own point spread for each game in the NFL.

 

The results using The Quick and Dirty NFL Football Handicapping Method for the 2015 season showed a flat bet profit over five percent. Although this may seem low to many people, this was for a method that was simple and completely mechanical. No subjective analysis was involved. As I have stated in my book, this is a strong foundation to build upon.

 

Table of Contents

Introduction

The basis of the Quick and Dirty NFL Method

How to create your own point spread

NFL 2013 season Week 7 - Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

NFL 2013 season Week 9 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

NFL 2013 season Week 15 - Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions

Money Management

Improving this method

Mistakes to Avoid

Conclusion

 

Other information included is Ken Osterman's method for calculating over and under totals. This is designed to give a football handicapper a good starting number that can be adjusted according to the factors you believe are most important.

 

Ken also explains teaser and parlay cards, and how to wager with them. Also included is an explanation on when to bet the money line, overused handicapping factors, and he offers general tips and advice for success when betting the NFL.

 

With all the information contained in this book, you will become a good handicapper without a lot of previous knowledge. And for those who are already good handicappers, you will likely find enough information here to improve your game.

 

• Language: English
• Publisher: Teela Books
• Release date: Jan 6, 2021
• ISBN: 9781393494485

Book preview

Table of Contents

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The Quick and Dirty NFL Football Handicapping Method (The revised edition)

Introduction

Section 1 - An important first step in becoming a winning bettor

Section 2 - The basis of the Quick and Dirty NFL Method

Section 3 - How to create your own point spread

Section 4 - NFL 2013 season Week 7 - Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Section 5 - NFL 2013 season Week 9 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Section 6 - NFL 2013 season Week 15 - Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions

Section 7 - Money Management

Section 8 - Improving this method

Section 9 - Mistakes to Avoid

Section 10 – Conclusion

Results for the 2015 Season - Summary

Addendum

Supplemental Information

When to Bet the Money Line

Teaser and Parlay Betting Cards

Overused  and Overemphasized Handicapping Factors

Tips and Advice

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Spot Play Angles

Calculating Over and Under

The Injured Star

The Hat Trick

The Injured Starting Center Angle

Appendix

Sports Betting and Taxes

The Ethics of Gambling

Breakdown of Results for 2015 Season

The Quick and Dirty NFL Football Handicapping Method

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Introduction

The purpose of this book is to explain a fundamental approach to making a profit betting on professional football games, especially for those with little time to handicap them. It is a quick method that ignores nearly all variables that determine the chances of a team winning today’s game and by how many points. The reason for this is simple.

There is no magic formula that only requires a few numbers to calculate the winning bet for today’s game. The only way to make money betting football is to bet on a team that is an overlay. That is to say, betting a team whose odds are higher than they should be. Another way to put it is in terms of point spread. Since professional football games are bet according to a point spread, a team that has a more favorable point spread than it should have is an overlay.

Naturally, much of this type of speculation is subjective, but the results of the bets you make are not subjective. You can calculate mathematically exactly how well you are doing and how great your advantage or disadvantage over the game is.

Regardless of whether you are betting a football game or another sport including horse racing, there is no predetermined outcome. No one has a crystal ball, and there are no psychics that can see the future, because it hasn’t happened yet. The future is all about probability. There are thousands of factors that can influence the future, and the exact way the future unfolds into the present is dependent upon the interaction of many variables and the strength of influence these factors have.

Among the factors that go into calculating a probability of a football team winning include:

Injuries

Common opponents

Home field advantage

Performance against the spread

Strength of opposition

Time off since last game

A robust handicapping method will often include certain variables that are considered important while discarding others. The variables that are included will be given different weights regarding their importance. In some cases, these variables will be a part of a complex mathematical formula that is processed by computer. Other handicappers will only calculate mentally, getting a feel for what the line should be. Successful handicappers may even do a combination of both. But whatever the method, a handicapper must be able to determine when an overlay in the point spread exists.

This method seeks to find an overlay in the point spread using the simplest and quickest method possible.

Section 1

An important first step in becoming a winning bettor

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Understanding How Casinos Make Money on Football Betting

It is important to understand how a sports book makes money from football games, because too often people are under the mistaken belief that they are betting against the