Week One NFL Winners - 2021 Edition

By Sports Betting Secrets

2021 Edition! 18 Winning Weeks, 3 Losing Weeks in 2020! Welcome to the 2021 Edition of Week One NFL Winners. In this book you will find complete analysis for all 16 Week One games, plus expert handicapping advice, sports betting secrets and a whole lot more. We started the 2020 season with 13 winning weeks in a row and finished the year with 18 winning weeks and 3 losing weeks. The year before we started with 14 winning weeks in a row and finished the year with 16 winning weeks and 5 losing weeks, all due to the information in this book. Many of our readers have cashed in the SuperContest, winning amounts from $15,000 up to $215,000. You'll find this to be the most complete, the most detailed, the most comprehensive analysis of Week One games available anywhere on the planet.

Read this book and discover for yourself:

• Why Handicapping Beats Analytics
• Top-7 Reasons Why Sports Bettors Lose
• Top-5 Reasons Why You Can Win
• How the Las Vegas Betting Line is Made
• How to Bet Sports Like a Business
• Low-Risk, High Reward Betting aka How to Win a 20-1 Shot (We Did it Last Year)
• How to Acquire and Profit from Inside Information
• How to Make Money Off Losing Teams
• The Mid-November Wall
• How to Handicap a 17-Game Season
• Why Coaches Hold the Key to a Winning Season
• Money-Burning NFL Coaches (Play Them at Your Own Risk)

And much, much more!

Football Handicapping and Sports Betting Secrets

Join the thousands of readers who have made this the top football handicapping book in the world.

 

Regarding the Las Vegas betting line, this year's book contains the exact formula the oddsmaker uses to form his opening line. No one else in the entire world will tell you how this is done - because they don't know. But I know, and I reveal it all in the 2021 edition of Week One NFL Winners.

 

How to Win a 20-1 Wager

 

Remember too that everyone who buys a copy of Week One NFL Winners is entitled to a free September update. Last year's free September update contained my advice to take Kevin Stefanski to win Coach of the Year, a 20-1 shot that paid off big. 

 

This year's book contains an entire chapter detailing how you can predict who is going to win Coach of the Year in 2021. 

 

If you're planning to enter a contest or bet any NFL games this year, you simply can't afford not to read this book. Especially at these rock-bottom sale prices. In the words of Don Corleone, "I'm making you an offer you can't refuse."

• Language: English
• Publisher: Week One NFL Winners
• Release date: Jun 1, 2021
• ISBN: 9781953006134

Book preview

Do You Know?

Do you know which NFL head coach is 32-8 SU and 25-12-3 ATS in non-division home games, including 34-6 ATS on the first leg of a 6-point teaser? His team faces a non-division opponent at home in Week One. (Page 79)

Do you know which NFL head coach has held his last ten Week One opponents to an average of 19 points and 292 yards per game? He’s likely to do the same again this year. (Page 82)

Do you know which NFL quarterback went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in night games last season with a TD/INT ratio of 7/5, while going 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in day games, with a ratio of 26/5? Hint: It’s not who you think. (Page 84)

Do you know which NFL team qualifies for a pair of Week One systems that are a combined 3-29 SU and 3-28-1 ATS (09.6 percent)? If you bet this team, don’t say I didn’t warn you. (Page 90)

Do you know which NFL quarterback is 1-16 SU and 0-15-2 ATS when his team allows 22 or more points? You don’t want to back this guy’s team if you think the game will be a shootout. (Page 97)

Do you know which NFL head coach is 12-5-1 SU and 14-3-1 ATS when his team scores 25 or more points, and 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS when they don’t? His team is projected to score 24 points in Week One (Page 101)

Do you know which NFL coach is 2-19 ATS in 1st half wagering and 7-14 ATS in 1st quarter wagering? His teams have scored 0 points in the 1st quarter in 14 out of 21 games. (Page 106)

Do you know which NFL coach is 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. teams of .500 or more, and 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS vs. former defensive coordinators-turned head coaches? Don’t let this guy burn your wallet. (Page 111)

Do you know which NFL head coach is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs. the quarterback he’ll be facing in Week One this year, winning by an average score of 21-12? This is my favorite bet of Week One. (Page 117)

Do you know which NFL quarterback has led his team to an average of 28 points in twelve Week One games, going 11-1 over the total? Call him Mr. September. (Page 147)

You’ll find the answers to all of these questions and a whole lot more inside this book!

Welcome to the Winner’s Circle

Congratulations! And welcome to the 2021 edition of Week One NFL Winners. You’ll find this book to be a virtual treasure trove of football handicapping information with systems, trends, and sports betting secrets you simply can’t find anywhere else. I’m not exaggerating when I say it’s the most complete, the most detailed, the most comprehensive analysis of NFL Week One games available anywhere on the planet.

What’s more, everyone who buys this book is eligible to receive a free update in September for all of this year’s Week One games. Last season’s September update contained the reasons why I thought Kevin Stefanski would win Coach of the Year, a 20-1 shot that paid off handsomely. (You’ll find my analysis to win Coach of the Year for 2021 inside this book!)

To receive your free September update, simply send me an email with the words UPDATE 2021 in the subject line. You’ll receive the update approximately one week before the season starts. (Send your email to: [e-mail])

As a reader of this book, you also have my personal support available throughout the entire season. Have a question about a game? Concerned about an injury? Want to know who I’m picking in my weekly football pool? Shoot me an email. I’ll be happy to answer any question you have.

This might be a good time to mention that last season—thanks to the information contained in the 2020 edition of this book—we finished the year with 18 winning weeks and 3 losing weeks, and those 18 winning weeks included some absolute monsters where we went 12-4, 9-1, 5-1, etc. They also included a great start to the season with 13 winning weeks in a row.

The year before, in 2019, we started the year with 14 winning weeks in a row and finished with 16 winning weeks and 5 losing weeks. Those are records that no one else has ever come close to and probably never will. So you’re in good hands with the information you’re about to read in this book.

In this 2021 edition, I am spilling my football handicapping secrets. I am giving away the gold, because I want you to have a fun, successful, and winning season.

You might also be interested to know that many of my readers—not just a few, but many—have placed in the top-10 and even the top-5 of the prestigious Westgate SuperContest, winning amounts from $15,000 to $215,000. If you’re interested in joining them, here are some Week One handicapping systems to get you started:

Week One NFL teams that had between one and eight fewer wins than their opponent in the previous year and whose opponent is projected to be an underdog in Week Two are 99-55-1 ATS (64.2 percent).

Week One NFL teams that had between one and eight fewer wins than their opponent in the previous year and who are projected to be favorites in Week Two are 104-59-4 ATS (63.8 percent).

Week One NFL teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous year and are up against division opponents that did make the playoffs in the previous year are 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 2005, including 27-11 ATS (71.0 percent) as underdogs.

Week One NFL teams that finished top-5 in scoring are 18-13 SU and 10-21 ATS (32.2 percent) vs. teams that won between 2 and 7 games the previous year.

What you’ve just read is merely the tip of the iceberg of what’s inside the pages of this book. There are plenty of other systems just like these and you’re going to read about them all very soon. In addition to those systems, you’ll find my comprehensive analysis for all 16 Week One NFL games, along with handicapping articles and a whole lot more. In short, I think you’ll find the information in this book to be extremely valuable, not just for Week One, but for the entire NFL season.

In just a moment, I’m going to share some handicapping secrets with you, but before we get started, I want to thank you for buying this book. Your support is greatly appreciated. Here’s to a winning season for you in 2021.

Your information is very helpful and a must-have in every handicapper’s arsenal.... In the end we all make our own picks, but I would not have hit 51.5 winners in the Westgate SuperContest without your help. – N.G.

Handicapping vs. Analytics

Contrary to popular belief, handicapping and analytics are not the same thing. In fact, they are as different as night and day. If you want to make money betting on sports, or if you’re a team owner, general manager or head coach and you want to put your team in the best possible position to win games, practice handicapping. If you’re into fantasy football or football video games, practice analytics.

The analytics craze began with Bill James in baseball and has now carried over to every professional sport. Analytics is great if fantasy football is your game, but it’s useless for sports betting and its real world application to the actual game of football has failed miserably. In fact, the two NFL teams most heavily involved in analytics–Cleveland and Jacksonville–are the decade’s biggest losers.

During the analytics-fueled Sashi Brown/Andrew Berry years, the Browns went 1-31 SU and 8-24 ATS. The following regime was only marginally better and it wasn’t until last year that Cleveland finally had their first winning season since 2007.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 41-106 SU and 61-80-6 ATS under owner Shad Khan. The only success Jacksonville has enjoyed under its current, analytics-driven ownership is when Tom Coughlin came in and overruled everything the analytics department was doing. Coughlin literally built the team that went to the 2017 AFC Championship Game. With Coughlin calling the shots, the Jags went 22-27 SU and 22-25-2 ATS, and were 10 minutes away from the Super Bowl. Without Coughlin, the team is 19-79 SU and 39-55-4 ATS under Khan’s ownership, and they have analytics to thank for it.

While analytics applied to football has failed on every front, handicapping is as strong as ever. Handicappers make their living studying relevant stats and determining which team is most likely to win a given game. Handicappers study what works, not what sounds fun and fancy to a roomful of video game geeks. The stats that winning handicappers use to analyze games are the polar opposite of the stats used in analytics. If NFL team owners and head coaches knew what stats were most relevant and conducive to winning games—and those stats are what handicapping is all about—they would immediately disband their analytics departments and focus on handicapping.

Almost everyone involved in analytics comes from a background in fantasy football or football video games vs. actually playing and coaching the game. As a result, analytics departments all across the country are blissfully ignorant about the correlation between run-stuffing and turnovers, the correlation between rush attempts and winning (they mistakenly believe that winning dictates rush attempts, when it’s the other way around), or the correlation between pass attempts and red zone efficiency, but handicappers are well aware of all of those things and more.

Fantasy football players are obsessed with big passing yards and they retain that obsession when they gravitate to analytics. However, what works in fantasy football has no correlation to what works on the field or to what works in sports betting. That’s why it’s called fantasy football. Fantasy football fans and their brethren in analytics could never survive in the harsh reality of sports betting.

NFL analytics departments never bother to ask themselves why teams with pass-happy play-callers, like Jay Gruden, Pat Shurmur, Dirk Koetter and others, continue to lose year after year after year, while teams with balanced offenses, like Baltimore and Seattle, make the playoffs on a consistent basis.

NFL analytics departments never take into account the playing surface, or an opponent’s coaching tendencies, or any emotional factors that might be present in a given game. They never study a team’s strengths or its personnel individually, like handicappers do. Instead they assign arbitrary, one-size-fits-all dictates that say pass in this situation, or run in that situation, regardless of the skill levels of their team’s players or who their opponent is.

The Carolina Panther’s recent decision to jettison quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in favor of Sam Darnold is a perfect example of how teams that rely on analytics vs. handicapping continually shoot themselves in the foot. Analytics gurus across the country unanimously declared Bridgewater’s 2020 season in Carolina a disaster. (Disaster is the exact word used by the internet’s #1 analytics website, a site frequented by fantasy football fans around the world.)

Why were analytics devotees across the country so down on Bridgewater’s 2020 season? Because he failed to provide the big passing yards they’re obsessed with. However, to football handicappers, as well as to anyone who actually understands how the game is played, Bridgewater’s 2020 season was a roaring success. He kept Carolina competitive, week after week, game after game, and almost singlehandedly led the team to a 9-6 ATS record in his fifteen starts. Bridgewater accomplished that despite an inexperienced coaching staff and a complete lack of offensive playmakers. If handicappers had their own version of the Most Valuable Player award, then Bridgewater would have won last season hands-down.

Carolina lost at least three games last year due to missed field goals and another three games due to poor offensive play-calling. Their defense allowed 30 or more points in six games. Their coaching staff was over-matched in practically every game. So what’s their answer to all of those issues? Replace a quarterback who wins more games than he loses with one who loses twice as many games as he wins. After all, that’s what the analytics department recommends.

As I type these words, the world’s #1 analytics website is shilling hard for Jalen Hurts to start in Week One for Philadelphia, because in their words, he averaged 21.3 fantasy points in his four 2020 starts.

This is the kind of juvenile mindset that permeates the analytics departments of every NFL team in the league. It’s no longer about winning; it’s about fantasy points and big passing yards.

Handicapping is the complete opposite of analytics. The metrics that handicappers use bear no relation to the metrics used in analytics. Handicappers use their research and their knowledge of the game to correctly predict winners at rates that analytics departments can only dream about achieving.

There’s also an art to handicapping–just as there is an art to football coaching–that is completely absent from analytics. Old-school football coaches know about this art. They can’t always put it into words, but they can feel it in every bone in their body.

It’s a shame that so many professional football teams have fallen for the fallacy of analytics. What they should be spending their time on is old-fashioned football handicapping. A simple change from the former to the latter would result in an immediate advantage over their opponents and a measurable increase in the