The Great Skills Gap: Optimizing Talent for the Future of Work

By Jason Wingard

An extraordinary confluence of forces stemming from automation and digital technologies is transforming both the world of work and the ways we educate current and future employees to contribute productively to the workplace.

The Great Skills Gap opens with the premise that the exploding scope and pace of technological innovation in the digital age is fast transforming the fundamental nature of work. Due to these developments, the skills and preparation that employers need from their talent pool are shifting. The accelerated pace of evolution and disruption in the competitive business landscape demands that workers be not only technically proficient, but also exceptionally agile in their capacity to think and act creatively and quickly learn new skills.

This book explores how these transformative forces are—or should be—driving innovations in how colleges and universities prepare students for their careers. Focused on the impact of this confluence of forces at the nexus of work and higher education, the book's contributors—an illustrious group of leading educators, prominent employers, and other thought leaders—answer profound questions about how business and higher education can best collaborate in support of the twenty-first century workforce.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Stanford Business Books
• Release date: Jun 8, 2021
• ISBN: 9781503628076

Book preview

THE GREAT SKILLS GAP

Optimizing Talent for the Future of Work

Edited by Jason Wingard and Christine Farrugia

STANFORD BUSINESS BOOKS

An Imprint of Stanford University Press

Stanford, California

STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

Stanford, California

© 2021 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University.

All rights reserved.

Harnessing the Power and Potential of Diversity and Inclusion is reprinted with permission from TIAA. All rights reserved.

How the Future of Work Impacts the Workforce of Technical Organizations is reprinted with permission from NASA. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press.

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Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Wingard, Jason, editor. | Farrugia, Christine A., editor.

Title: The great skills gap : optimizing talent for the future of work / edited by Jason Wingard and Christine Farrugia.

Description: Stanford, California : Stanford Business Books, an imprint of Stanford University Press, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2021001586 (print) | LCCN 2021001587 (ebook) | ISBN 9781503613539 (cloth) | ISBN 9781503628076 (epub)

Subjects: LCSH: Vocational qualifications—United States. | Labor supply—Effect of education on—United States. | Labor supply—Effect of technological innovations on—United States. | College graduates—Employment—United States. | Continuing education—United States. | Education, Higher—Economic aspects—United States.

Classification: LCC HF5381.6 G74 2021 (print) | LCC HF5381.6 (ebook) | DDC 331.11/420973—dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021001586

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021001587

Cover design: Rob Ehle

Text design: Kevin Barrett Kane

Typeset at Stanford University Press in 10.5/14 Minion Pro

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

Foreword

Ramon Laguarta, Chairman and CEO, PepsiCo

INTRODUCTION

Part I: Talent of the Future: Are We Missing the Mark?

Introduction

Neil Irwin, New York Times

1. Equipping a New Generation with the Skills Needed in the Automation Age

Susan Lund and Bryan Hancock, McKinsey & Company

2. The Role of Citizen Developers in Developing Technological Literacy

Lance Braunstein, BlackRock

3. The Future of Work: Four Difficult Questions I Ask Myself as an Employer

Matthew Pittinsky, Parchment & Blackboard

4. Why Geography Is So Important

Michael L. Ulica, National Geographic Society

5. Enabling a High-Performing, Human-Centered Organization in Pfizer’s Upjohn Division

Amrit Ray, Lu Hong, and Trish White, Pfizer

6. How the Future of Work Impacts the Workforce of Technical Organizations

Gregory L. Robinson, NASA

7. Corporate Learning and Development Has a Vital Role to Play in the Robotics Revolution—Is It Ready?

Uli Heitzlhofer, Lyft

Part II: Higher Education: Still the Solution for a Workforce in Flux?

Introduction

Joseph Williams, Business Insider

8. Supporting Unlearning to Enable Upskilling

Chris Dede, Harvard University

9. Higher Education’s Changing Faces: Serving STEM Learners for a Lifetime

Yakut Gazi and Nelson Baker, Georgia Institute of Technology

10. The Future of Business Education: New Economies of Automation, Certification, and Scale

Anne Trumbore, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

11. Back to the Future: Fragile Workers, Higher Education, and the Future Knowledge Economy

Earl Lewis, Alford Young, Jr., Justin Shaffner, and Julie Arbit, University of Michigan

12. The Evolution of the Liberal Arts

Christopher Mayer, United States Military Academy at West Point

13. The Evolution of Liberal Education in a Technology-Mediated, Global Society

Kelly J. Otter, Georgetown University

14. The Core and the Adult Student

David Schejbal, Marquette University

15. Perpetual Learning as Alumni Engagement: Renewing the Social Contract

Matthew Rascoff, Duke University and James DeVaney, University of Michigan

Part III: Bridging the Gap between Learning and Labor

Introduction

Lauren Weber, Wall Street Journal

16. Harnessing the Power and Potential of Diversity and Inclusion

Stephanie Bell-Rose and Anne Ollen, TIAA

17. Public Education and the Future of Work

Ross Wiener, Aspen Institute

18. Developing Workers for the Workplace: How Businesses and Higher Education Can Alleviate Worker Barriers to Retraining or Upskilling

X. Susan Zhu, Alexander Alonso, and Johnny C. Taylor, Society for Human Resource Management

19. Past as Prologue: Apprenticeship and the Future of Work

Mary Alice McCarthy, New America

20. Bachelor’s-Level Registered Apprenticeship for Engineers: Possibilities and Challenges

Daniel Kuehn, The Urban Institute

21. The Agility Imperative: The Future of Work and Business–Higher Education Partnerships

Jason A. Tyszko, US Chamber of Commerce Foundation and Robert G. Sheets, George Washington University

22. Demand for the Blended Digital Professional

Brian K. Fitzgerald, Isabel Cardenas-Navia, and Janet Chen, Business–Higher Education Forum

23. A Coherent Approach to Connect: Education and the Future of Work

LaVerne Srinivasan, Elise Henson, and Farhad Asghar, Carnegie Corporation of New York

CONCLUSION

Notes

About the Contributors

Index

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We, the editors, would like to thank the following individuals for their support in bringing this ambitious book to fruition:

First, thank you to the University Professional and Continuing Education Association (UPCEA) for their partnership on the Forum on the Future of Work, the book’s primary content source, held at Columbia University in 2019. Specifically, we appreciate the efforts of Robert Hansen, Molly Nelson, Jordan DiMaggio, and Joseph Fedak for their expert advisory and project management contributions.

Second, we would like to thank Pam Wong at Columbia University for her contributions throughout the developmental stages of the project.

Third, we offer special thanks to Steve Pelletier and Susan Shain for their editorial assistance, and Natalie Nixon for her consulting support.

Finally, we thank the contributors to this volume, whose thought leadership and eagerness to engage in this topic made the book possible.

FOREWORD

If there ever was any doubt, the fallout from COVID-19 has made it clear that technology will drastically change the jobs of the future. The only question remaining is, how will workers adapt? How will seasoned professionals who have spent their lives in one career successfully make the leap to something new? How will young people lay the foundation for a lifetime of meaningful, engaging work? No one has all the answers right now. But one thing we know for sure is that new skill sets will be critical.

A remake of skill sets is already underway. Done successfully, transitioning workers to new skills and new jobs can close the gap between those reaping the rewards of the digital age and those yet to realize its gains—in other words, between the haves and the have-nots. But if the transition fails, the gap between these groups will widen. This transition is being steered by a variety of agents, including educators, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and, of course, corporations.

As the CEO of a multinational Fortune 50 company, I believe that corporations have a responsibility to help their employees navigate the challenges of reskilling for the digital age, so that both employees and companies emerge stronger than before. Not only do employees need transparency about whether their skills are in demand today and if they will still be needed tomorrow, but also companies need to ensure that employees are comfortable enough with digital technology to make it work for them.

Education is a solution. But not just the traditional kind. Employers have for too long focused on bachelor’s degrees as the ticket to good jobs, but the truth is that many of today’s jobs require skills, not degrees. At PepsiCo, we take a multistep approach to upskilling and reskilling our workforce. A range of on-demand learning resources is available anytime, anywhere, on any device. These resources are tagged by skill set, so people can create learning paths based on their development goals. For deeper capability building, we offer tuition support for certificate and degree programs. We also encourage our leaders to teach, bringing together external perspectives with PepsiCo-specific application to bring the learning to life. The problem of reskilling is ultimately solvable, but it takes the public and private sectors working together to change the face of education. Neither companies, nor government, nor education can do it alone. The need for reskilling is larger than any individual or organization.

Successfully navigating complex change requires the ability to lead people through uncertainty. Continually scanning the external environment, envisioning future scenarios, and building capabilities to thrive under any circumstance is a top priority for PepsiCo. Our mission to create more smiles with every sip and every bite means we must stay in lockstep with our consumers, adjusting our portfolio and finding new ways to delight in more sustainable ways. This versatility is due in no small part to the agility of our leaders—an agility we consciously nurture through challenging assignments, frequent job transitions, and a robust learning culture.

The Great Skills Gap: Optimizing Talent for the Future of Work offers an abundance of provocative ideas for how higher education can collaborate with the business community and system facilitators to align educational programs with the long-term needs of employers and workers. The editors, Jason Wingard and Christine Farrugia, are leading experts on the future of work and its implications for higher education and training. Their research on the human impact of automation highlights the importance of prioritizing strategies for inclusive talent development, reaching across industries and demographics—strategies that will be more important than ever as companies look to rebound from the devastating social and economic consequences of COVID-19.

In this book, Wingard and Farrugia have curated an insightful exploration of how transformative forces are—or should be—driving changes in the ways colleges and universities prepare students for careers. Combining their own work with the perspectives of leading educators, prominent employers, and other thought leaders, they deliver a wealth of insight into the skills challenges facing our economy. They explore innovative ideas for how to solve these challenges through higher education and alternative learning models, as well as how to scale solutions through cross-sector partnerships. From the first page to the last, the book’s insights and analysis are invaluable to all of us, both in business and higher education, who hold a stake in the success of the twenty-first century workforce.

Ramon Laguarta

Chairman and CEO, PepsiCo

INTRODUCTION

AN EXTRAORDINARY CONFLUENCE of powerful forces is transforming both the world of work and the ways we educate current and future employees to contribute productively to the workplace. Automation and digital technologies are already profoundly transforming how business is done at every level, and alarming predictions of our jobs being replaced by robots abound. While the most catastrophic of these scenarios is overblown, there are seismic shifts afoot across industries and roles that reach beyond manufacturing—where industry disruption has been a mainstay for decades—to professional occupations where the prospect of job displacement due to automation seems to many like a far-off possibility rather than a looming threat. With these changes comes immense uncertainty for what the future holds in terms of what our jobs will look like and whether they will exist at all.

As with all things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of two extremes. The realistic scenario is that jobs will not evaporate entirely, but they will change, perhaps substantially. Robots will not replace us. Instead, humans will work with machines and artificial intelligence in new ways. As technologies develop, they will open new lines of business and create roles that will demand skilled workers. The jobs we know today will be reinvented into something new—and perhaps unrecognizable—in the future.

A transformation is underway at the nexus where the world of work meets the world of higher education. The exploding scope and pace of technological innovation in the digital age is fast transforming the fundamental nature of work, and many of the shifts have already begun. The gig economy is prevalent. Companies like Lyft and Airbnb offer technologies that capitalize on this trend, and Google now has more contract employees than regular full-time workers.¹ Automation is also influencing the way people work. For example, to better respond to customer demand for personalized cars, Mercedes-Benz moved from a dumb robot system on the S-class sedan assembly line to a cobot system. Cobots—robotic arms operated by human workers—combine the power of robotic methods with the agility of humans who are able to execute judgment and adapt quickly.² These developments, and their rapid pace, are shifting the skills and preparation that employers need from their talent pool.

At its core, the ability to successfully navigate toward the future of work relies on workers receiving training that is relevant for the jobs of today and the jobs of tomorrow. Employers are grappling with these dilemmas of how to transform their current workforce to meet future business needs in a rapidly changing environment. Employers face the challenge of anticipating how their industries and companies will change, and then crafting training and hiring strategies to meet their needs now and into the future. The difficulty of this task rests in the element of the unknown. What will the jobs of tomorrow look like? Which of the skills that workers possess today will still be relevant in five, ten, or twenty years?

Employers are already developing strategies to expand their pipelines of skilled talent and to train and retain their workers. Google and Ernst & Young are turning away from a college degree as a predictor of on-the-job success and have opened numerous professional positions to workers with the requisite skills, regardless of whether they have a college degree.³ Corporate-backed training options are growing in prevalence and type. TSYS has implemented a program to retrain their older workers with the future skills that their company needs so they are able to adapt within the company.⁴ IBM now offers a menu of training options for new-collar jobs that require some training but fall short of needing a college degree. The company offers programs such as digital badge portfolios, apprenticeships, and bootcamps to groom the talent it needs.⁵ In an effort to attract and retain young talent, Walmart offers college tuition benefits and a platform to access online degree programs.⁶

While employers are grappling with how to ensure a pipeline of skilled talent for the future, higher education also has a role to play. Colleges and universities have traditionally fed their graduates into skilled occupations, largely relying on the liberal arts model of education that has defined US higher education since its inception. However, within the changing employment landscape, there are questions about how well the current higher education model is positioned to continue launching its graduates into productive careers. Indeed, the future of work creates an imperative for radically rethinking the purpose and current approach to employment readiness by higher education institutions.

The Future of Work and Its Implications for Higher Education

Workforce disruption is a dominant theme in the future of work. Increasing levels of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are replacing workers and reshaping the world of work. McKinsey estimates that by 2030 about half of work activities could be automated.⁷ For example, in the medical field, AI approaches are being developed to harness massive amounts of health data so that machines can diagnose illnesses, and these tools are showing the potential to be more accurate than doctors.⁸ Media companies are already using AI to mine data sets to generate newsworthy insights, to create article content, and to automate and optimize content distribution across channels, placing pressure on traditional jobs in journalism.⁹ Industries, employees, companies, and technologies are already being developed, disrupted, or reconfigured in unforeseen ways, illustrating how the jobs we know today may not exist in the future.

The accelerated pace of evolution and disruption in the competitive business landscape demands that workers not only be technically proficient but also exceptionally agile in their capacity to think and act creatively and quickly learn new skills. Employee capabilities in leadership, teamwork, and communications are also paramount. In turn, those changes are motivating significant, even revolutionary change in the way educational institutions prepare learners for careers. Forward-thinking colleges and universities are reshaping instruction and the curriculum to ensure that they invest learners with skills appropriate to the twenty-first-century economy.

In addition to technological disruption, demographic forces are also affecting the workplace, compelling higher education to respond in turn. The increased longevity of human beings means that many careers will span sixty years or more, creating a sustained need for continual reskilling so that workers remain productive with relevant skills.¹⁰ Meanwhile, evolving demographic trends are shattering the relative homogeneity that once defined the workforce by opening the pipeline to employment for a more diverse employee population. The ability to achieve workforce parity and diversity relies on higher education graduating a diverse pool of talent with the skills and knowledge needed to move into professional occupations.

To meet the challenges of a dynamic, fast-evolving workplace, employers seek workers who can think creatively and act nimbly. Employees need both the preparation to contribute substantively to their workplaces from day one, as well as an educational framework that will enable them to retool their skills continually over the course of a career that might endure for sixty years or more.

Within this context, higher education faces new demands in supporting the development of a workforce invested with twenty-first-century skills. Higher education has a paramount role to play in ably preparing learners to meet the immediate requirements of the workplace, as well as the uncertain demands of the future. Many higher education leaders believe they do this well. However, the Strada-Gallup 2017 College Student Survey found that while nearly all (96 percent) of chief academic officers in colleges and universities believe their institution is effective in preparing future workers, just 11 percent of business leaders strongly agree with them.¹¹

As the workplace undergoes transformation wrought by automation, technological innovation, globalization, and demographic shifts, the skills and training that employers require are evolving. At the same time, higher education is facing pressures to prepare students so that they are employable, ready to contribute to innovation, and able to craft meaningful careers over their lifetimes. In the future of work, the ability of higher education and industry to work collaboratively and productively is paramount to achieving these ends.

About This Book

This book examines the gap between employers and higher education and considers their ability to collaboratively address the coming challenges in the future of work. The book’s content is guided by the overarching question of what higher education’s special role is in addressing employment needs of the future. Employers and higher education do not always talk well with each other, so in this book we bring these two groups together, along with intermediary organizations—such as nonprofits, foundations, and think tanks—that work between higher education and employers to help facilitate system solutions. The book’s contributions from leading educators, prominent employers, and other thought leaders frame relevant considerations for both business and higher education and suggest specific strategies for improving workforce preparation.

This book is structured in three parts that present the views of each stakeholder group. Part I (Talent of the Future: Are We Missing the Mark?) examines issues around automation, demographics, economic disruption, and related trends that are transforming the fundamental nature of work and the workplace, exploring the ways technology will transform the world of work and how the workplace should respond. With such change as context, how can we ensure that employees have the right skill sets for work in the future?

The chapters in Part I explore how automation and other technological advancements will affect workplace practices and employers’ demands for workplace skills. The authors consider how best to tackle the challenges of training emerging professionals and reskilling seasoned talent through higher education, workplace training programs, or alternative credentialing models. Several contributors argue for the primacy of the human experience through humanistic workplace practices, retraining efforts that advance individuals’ development and employment prospects, and a global understanding of the world and the people in it.

Part II (Higher Education: Still the Solution for a Workforce in Flux?) raises the question of how higher education can or should adapt to better meet the needs of tomorrow’s workplace. Fundamental changes in the workplace are driving significant changes in the ways that colleges and universities help prepare learners for careers and for their lives as citizens. Responding in part to concerns from employers that many new employees lack the requisite skills that businesses need, colleges and universities are engaging in change on several fronts.

Institutions are developing academic programs and cocurricular tools like makerspaces and apprenticeships to help students across a spectrum of majors to develop practical skills in emerging technologies. Across the curriculum, institutions are focusing on ways to help students develop crucial workforce skills like teamwork, goal setting, effective interpersonal communication, and conflict resolution. There is increasing recognition that the liberal arts—recently in disfavor in some more career-centric circles—invests students with a rich panoply of skills that employers value, including creative thinking and idea synthesis and the capacity to solve problems and drive innovation. Higher education is embracing an evolving palette of tools—including online learning, microlearning, credentials beyond degrees, experiential learning, bootcamps, competency-based education, and more—that help better prepare their students for the jobs of tomorrow. Professional and continuing education are booming, serving expanding needs of adult workers for lifelong retooling and upskilling across the course of increasingly longer careers.

In light of these contexts, Part II explores key questions, such as how continuing education can help adult learners unlearn deeply held identities and reinvent themselves in the process of upskilling to new occupational roles. Chapter authors reflect on the new relevance of the liberal arts in the era of rapid technological advancement and explore how students and professionals in today’s workplace can marry expertise drawn from the liberal arts with more purely technical skills. The ways in which alumni learning and university strategies to better serve their graduates are evolving in the digital era are explored in depth.

Part III (Bridging the Gap between Learning and Labor) delves into the perspectives of system facilitators to explore solutions and innovations to help business and higher education to find more effective ways to join forces in support of their respective needs, in order to help traditional and posttraditional students gain the skills they need for tomorrow’s workplace. How can the worlds of commerce and academe collaborate effectively to better understand their respective motivations and work together to capitalize on emerging opportunities?

Insights about the changing nature of work and preparation for the workplace of tomorrow underscore the need for better communication and richer collaborations between employers and institutions of higher learning. Chapter authors reflect on how business and higher education can develop agile partnerships to meet the challenges of changing labor markets and evolving economies.

Among other critical questions, Part III examines the systemic problems in higher education that prevent students from graduating with the capacity to fully serve the demands of the contemporary workplace. It further considers how universities can sustain their mandate to prepare future citizens while also delivering highly relevant vocational training, including apprenticeships, and what role business can play in supporting lifelong learning for employees. Also explored are the challenges of fostering a culture of learning and growth to motivate workers to embrace and capitalize on technological change, as well as persistent questions about how to ensure that tomorrow’s workplace is broadly accessible to a diverse cadre of workers.

PART I

TALENT OF THE FUTURE

Are We Missing the Mark?

PART I PRESENTS THE PERSPECTIVES of leading employers who describe how the future of work will impact their industries and organizations. They share their visions of how the skills needed from their employees will evolve in response to these larger environmental shifts. Lund and Hancock present McKinsey’s research on the impact of automation on the future workforce and discuss how the demand for skills will change across industries. Braunstein from BlackRock extends this conversation through his reflections on how technology now pervades all aspects of life and work, creating a demand for citizen developers—technological laypeople who, notwithstanding their nontechnical roles, have the skills and knowledge to develop technological solutions to solve work problems. Pittinsky, cofounder of Blackboard and now CEO of Parchment, discusses the value of credentials in the workplace and explores opportunities and challenges for creating systems to communicate workers’ skills to employers in the absence of formal credentials. Ulica, president and chief operating officer of the National Geographic Society, makes the case that the field of geography is vital for success in an interconnected world. Pfizer’s Ray, Hong, and White discuss the importance of integrating a commitment to humanity and mission with a technological and scientific focus. NASA’s Robinson reflects on how technological development in prior decades altered the ways we worked and then situates past changes on a continuum of the shifts we are likely to see in the future. Heitzlhofer of Lyft explores the need for continuous corporate learning in the face of rapid technological developments and proposes that learning and development programs be expanded beyond single companies to span multiple employers.

The array of employer perspectives in this section provides a multifaceted vision of what the future landscape of work will look like and how it will impact both employers and workers. This section sets the stage for discussions in later sections of how higher education and multisector partnerships can evolve to meet changing training needs.

INTRODUCTION

Neil Irwin

IF YOU ARE SOMEONE WHO SPENDS a lot of time thinking about the future of work, it sometimes feels like the real future of work is millions of people organizing panel discussions about the future of work. That is to say, this is an endlessly important question—how we, and future generations, will make a living—but one that lends itself more to endless gabfests than definitive conclusions.

This is partly because foreseeing the future is inherently hard. But I think that’s only part of it.

Part of the challenge of reaching confident predictions about the nature of work is that the forces we see around us in the present are themselves subject to interpretation. There are lots of unresolved contradictions as to what is happening in the here-and-now, which in turn makes any kind of prediction about the future difficult.

Here’s one of those contradictions: everyone worries a lot about automation rendering millions of once-secure jobs needless. And you can come up with anecdotes about advances in artificial intelligence and robotics resulting in a company shrinking its workforce. But at the economy-wide level, none of the things you would expect to happen in a world of mass displacement of humans by machines seems to be happening. The unemployment rate, as of late 2019, is near its lowest level in five decades. Employers complain of labor shortages. Capital spending is relatively low as a share of the economy, by historical standards. And productivity growth has been weak roughly since the beginning of the twenty-first century, not uncommonly strong.

In more anecdotal terms, in the same publication you might read an article in which a technologist bemoans the future loss of millions of good blue-collar trucking jobs as driverless freight trucks become a reality—and also an article about how the trucking industry is struggling to find enough drivers.

But that’s not the only contradiction. Consider one tied to what it means to have a job. As everyone knows, the implicit contract between a worker and an employer has changed a great deal over the past few decades. Even for traditional payroll employees, there is no implicit promise of a job for life of the sort that large, successful companies offered in the decades immediately following World War II. To the contrary, workers understand that as an employer’s business needs change, so will the workforce. Layoffs are common even at profitable companies and even when there is no recession.

And that sense of uncertainty is even more extreme for the armies of contract and freelance workers modern organizations rely upon to do their work. Indeed, part of the appeal of using contracting firms for companies is that they can offer less lavish benefits and less job security than they would for payroll employees.

Consider an example that formed the basis of a 2018 article I wrote for the New York Times. In the 1980s, a janitor for Eastman Kodak—one of the most innovative and profitable companies of that time—may not have been paid much money, but she did receive paid vacation time, excellent health care, and an annual bonus based on the company’s profits. Her equivalent today, a janitor at Apple Inc., does not work for the company at all, but for a janitorial services company.