The Adaptive System

By Rod Watson

Butcher the Bookie with:

The Adaptive System

By Rod Watson, a Certified Accountant, former employee of the Secretaries to the Jockey Club and a professional punter, he has spent thirteen years developing The Adaptive System.

The System will almost certainly put a brake on your loses, and practised with discipline and restraint, should, generate a nice secondary tax free income for you from horse racing

All you need is a few hours a week (when it suits you), access to the internet and a small sum of seed capital.

This little book packs a mighty punch! It is full of original tips and ideas that have been born out of over fifty years of observing horse racing.

---

Towards the end of 2000. enormous changes took place in the betting and horse racing industry. Betting Tax was abolished,you could lay a horse to lose on 'betting exchanges' through matched betting. It was possible to make and receive payments by using debit and credit cards. All transactions could be done on the internet and subsequently on your mobile device; you could bet 'on the wing'. It was possible to back and lay 'in running',and to bet on the place market only. The bookmakers andbetting exchanges introduced all sorts of new bets and enhanced existing variants. You can now watch a race on your mobileand replay it many times. On the the tracks, All Weather and floodlit racing was introduced. In the betting shops (for those who still wanted to go there) there were refreshments, toilets, televised racing and comfortable facilities.

It was against this exciting background that I wrote The Adaptive System, finishing the original version in 2007 Laying and the use of the internet were its two main platforms. Laying was 'like taking candy from a baby' - easy money.

Primarily aimed at horse racing in the UK and Eire, this innovative System works efficiently for any horse race under rules Worldwide. Indeed, sales in USA, Jamaica, Europe, Scandinavia, Hong Kong and Australia are surprisingly buoyant, whichproves the strength in depth of The System. Its methodology applies equally to the Flat (AW and Turf) and both the Summer and Winter National Hunt seasons. It covers both laying and backing and the lucrative place only market.

The System is well composed, clear and simple to follow with plenty of worked examples. The rational behind eachset of scores is concisely explained; some of it obvious, others will surprise you with their innovation and practical validity.In addition to The System itself the book covers staking strategy, betting bank management and the psychology of winning plusmany other methodologies.

Written for the serious punter whose aim is to trade for profit, not just for fun, this 85 page book book packed with useful andand original angles and information. It is not guaranteed to make you rich, but properly practised will be the best investmentyou can make in a horse racing system. It is a powerful tool to 'Butcher The Bookie' with and relieve him of the contents of hissatchel.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Legend Press
• Release date: Dec 21, 2017
• ISBN: 9781787196360

Book preview

constructed.

PREFACE

Who is this booklet for? What is it about?

It will appeal to anyone who backs and lays racehorses in mainland Britain and Ireland and takes that activity seriously enough to buy the Racing Post and subscribe to Timeform, even though that may only be on a Saturday.

It is not an encyclopaedia of British horse racing, or The Complete Guide To… There are few references to great racehorses, trainers, jockeys and no in depth analyses of past horse races. There are hardly any statistics. It specialises in certain types of races and therefore, by definition, contains many omissions.

There is little about breeding, that needs to be the subject of a separate book on its own.

What is it about? The adaptive system (TAS) is a system of scoring racehorses in a race against a number of criteria. It is adaptive because it adapts itself from race to race and the scores alter for each race. Once the horses in a particular race have been scored, the scores are ranked in descending order and compared with market odds. Often the two will be similar, but where there are differences, the opportunity for arbitrage occurs. This leveraging on arbitrage, combined with multiple staking and sometimes, laying as well as backing, tilts the balance in the trader’s favour.

It works on the very simple principle that the number plus two is greater than the number plus one. Everything, including subjective comments are reduced to a number. It is an invaluable tool to assist you in forming the right decision to back or lay a horse.

Will it bring you the four Freudian precepts, namely, Fame, Honour, Riches and Love of Women (or Men)? GUARANTEED, IT WILL! (Not!)

Will it provide you with untold riches beyond my wildest dreams? No, it will not.

Perhaps a second income? Perhaps, practised with Discipline and Restraint, it might – but, don’t give up the day job yet.

Anyone who backs or lays horses has a system. It could be sticking a pin in a list of the runners, or backing any horse with the name Oscar in it (The Oscar Method works surprising well). The adaptive system simply uses a linear, numerical approach.

Frankie Dettori once said A horse doesn’t read The Racing Post, he doesn’t know what his BHB rating is, or even where the winning post is. I can add that a horse cannot speak and therefore will not tell you that his shins are hurting, he has a sore back and that he hates Goodwood. Furthermore, not all trainers are wizards, not all jockeys have hands of silk and balls of brass and most training yards could throw up a good Dick Francis novel or two.

But, remember if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it. If nothing else, the system, where practised with Discipline and Restraint, will put the brakes on your losses.

CHAPTER ONE

GOVERNMENT WEALTH WARNING

Gambling on racehorses is a highly addictive and compulsive activity. It can rob you of all your money, time, friends and family. You must control it, not permit it to control you.

There is an account of one of the greatest painters (I did say painters and not punters) of recent times – Lucien Freud. He was down nearly one hundred thousand pounds on the ponies one afternoon and had simply run out of readies; so he sold his Bentley and blew that as well. It was only when he had emptied himself of all cash and all emotion that he could start to paint.

I used to visit an associate of mine, in prison whose horse race gambling addiction caused him to spend several terms on and off in open prisons. He was allowed out in a working party. Where did they send him? To the trainer, Captain Ryan Price to work on his gallops!

Let’s not go there, there really is more to Life.

Here are some simple guidelines that you ignore at your peril!

Money:

•   Budget your money! This budget must come from your free cash flow, that is to say the cash that you have free after all expenses have been met – the mortgage, car, household expenses, family holiday and so on. The budget must come out of your fritter money. For years I budgeted £10 per week. I no longer budget because The adaptive system is self-financing, but until your system becomes self- financing, budget.

•   Keep financial records! Record all losses and gains; apart from helping you to keep control over your money, it will enable you to identify where you are being profitable, where you are churning and where you are not being profitable. You will ascertain which income stream is the Cash Cow, the Rising Star, the Problem Child and the Dog. Problem Children need to be curbed and Bad Dogs put down.

•   Big Bank, Small Stakes Keep your stake unit small in relation to your betting bank. The more you make, the more you stake, the less you make, the less you stake.

Time:

•   Budget your time! Remember it’s not the time,