Exotic Wagering the Winning Way

By John Alexander

Hook to the Book




There are two, I repeat, two things standing in the way of your personal success with exotic wagering. One of the two is you. The other is a paradox involving your approach, the standard approach, to playing the exotics. I will provide you a quick, yet thorough explanation in this book. Realizing your vision of winning exotic wagers consistently necessitates a brand-new mindset, and then soon you will be on the surefire road to unparalleled success. You are only a couple of hours away from identifying the other hurdle, thus obliterating the hindrances and obtaining your long-elusive dream.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Mar 5, 2010
• ISBN: 9781477167052

John Alexander

John Alexander’s mother, Jennifer Alexander, was born into an army family in the early 1920s. She lived a full life; spending her childhood in India and travelling throughout Europe before air travel became unremarkable. During the Second World War, Jennifer served in the WRNS, hopping on planes to London for the weekend from her naval airstation in the Lowlands. Afterwards, Jennifer had two stints working at Queen magazine in the 1950s. In 1960 Jennifer married and the following year moved into the house in Surrey where the contents of Granny’s Kitchen Cupboard were brought to light more than 50 years later.

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Copyright © 2010 by John Alexander.

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CONTENTS

Chapter One  Out Of The Starting Gate: Stop The Insanity

Chapter Two  Conspiracy Theories

Chapter Three  A Horse Is A Horse, Of Course

Chapter Four  Welcome To The Pool Party

Chapter Five  No Future In The Past: The Randomness Of Racing

Chapter Six  You’ll Never Cross The River Twice

Chapter Seven  Handicapping 101: The Antibiotics-And-Condoms Approach

Chapter Eight  Handicapping 102: We Never Failed To Fail

Chapter Nine  Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: The System

Chapter Ten  I Did It My Way

Chapter Eleven  The Final Word: The House Is Not The House

Bibliography

To my friends Woody and Larry, horsemen extraordinaire.

CHAPTER ONE

Out of the Starting Gate: Stop the Insanity

Though this book is entirely about exotic wagering strategies, there are certainly times when the prudent bet is a flat bet, a bet to win only. When there is a small field in a race and there are one or two horses clearly better than the rest, there may not be much advantage in putting together an exotic ticket. The possible payoff, which may very likely involve two of the favorite, will not provide a return on your investment worth the risk. Now would be the time to load up on the horse you feel pretty good about winning the race, rather than risk destroying your ticket by trying to predict a third- or fourth-place finisher.

From a mathematical standpoint, the shorter the field, the easier it is to pick the winner. Regardless of what a horse’s chances of winning are, from the standpoint of the odds, each of the entries has some chance of winning the race. If you doubt this, take a moment to reflect on how many times you see upsets pulled on race cards throughout the racing world. Actually, since the favorite wins less than a third of the time, upsets occur two-thirds of the time, with some upsets more unlikely than others. Though class, past performance, and fitness play major roles in the likelihood of a horse’s success, you must keep in mind that the best horse does not always win the race. Rather, it is the horse that crosses the finish line first.

The flat bet is a safe bet. Only one thing must occur for you to have a winning ticket—the horse must finish exactly where you predict it will. Its position in the final standing will not be affected by wherever any of the other contestants finish the race. The exception is when you bet your horse to show (finish third) or place (finish second) and your horse wins. You will then receive a portion of the place or show pool, depending on which one you bet.

Remember the risk/reward factor, which works in a way that allows greater reward for greater risks. The flat bet I am describing is low risk; therefore, you should expect a small return. One way the flat bettor compensates for the relatively small return on his investment is to increase the amount of the wager. In this way, even though the ticket may only return pennies on the dollar, enough pennies may amount to a very nice profit.

At this point, it is appropriate I mention that winning and making money are not mutually inclusive. A flat bettor could wager a short-priced horse (3-5) and profit about twenty dollars for every one hundred dollars wagered. If he were to win five such races in a row, he would have a profit of approximately one hundred dollars. Though not a bad profit for his investment, the first time his short-priced favorite loses—which they do more often than not—he loses his one-hundred-dollar bet. There goes his entire profit in one fell swoop. The truth is that it is extremely difficult to build a significant profit betting short-priced horses to win, place, or show because the return is relatively small.

Many players are disciplined enough to take an investment of a few hundred dollars, gain a modest return for their investment, and go home. Many more, however, are not satisfied with a few dollars and continue to pursue greater winnings though the evidence clearly supports the fact that most handicappers will not win enough consecutive wagers on the short-priced horses to come out ahead should they continue playing. For this reason alone, I will steer you toward a system that will allow you the opportunity to realize a much greater profit when you win. You will win more money playing the exotics.

You have probably heard or read more times than you care to recall many, many claims that there are ways to beat the racetrack. Thus far, however, neither you nor anyone you know personally has been successful. Yes, there are literally thousands of surefire win programs. You buy them and implement them, waiting anxiously on a reversal of fortunes, only to be disappointed once again. Hasn’t your usual experience been to have many or most of the winners on your exotic ticket, only in reverse order? Or has your box ticket looked good right until the end of the race, only to be infiltrated by a stray number, thus successfully killing your ticket? You shoulda added just one more horse, coulda deleted one of the losers, and you woulda had a payoff instead of more thrash to toss. Losing by a nose or nose hair is no less bearable since making the wrong choices leads to obscene frustration, grief, and emotional pain. How clear the path to victory appears on the race replay.

Who doesn’t relish the prospect of possessing the only winning ticket in the room? The immeasurable thrill of knowing that you were the only one who made the bet correctly is a feeling like no other. Plus, it pays pretty well. A scene like this does not play out very often, but it can. A potent strategy is required—one that brings out the best you can produce. There is a lot of money to be made in this game, but to make it, you will have to get off your high horse (no pun intended) and admit that your present approach has not brought about consistent desirable results. Remember that one good definition for insanity is to do the same things the same way and expect a different result.

If you expect to begin winning your exotic bets, you may need to retool your thinking and be prepared to do things differently. Many fellow players want what does not work. They believe that if they keep at it, stay consistent with what they are doing, their approach will eventually pay dividends. In the meantime, they continue to absorb a mountain of defeats while stubbornly using unproductive strategies. Take a hard look at what follows and see if you can identify yourself. If you can, you definitely have the right book in your hand.

Requiem of a Racetrack Gambler

•   Your last big payoffs are few enough that you can remember every detail about the winning ticket.

•   You have walked to the parking lot in a daze, wondering what happened, when just a few hours earlier you were on a winning streak. To make matters worse, you can’t even find where you parked your car.

•   You have sworn that the jockey riding your choice pulled the horse up, in full view of the racing stewards, rather than allow it to win for you.

•   According to you, the stewards, jockeys, trainers, owners, and veterinarians have conspired to make you lose a race you bet.

•   You have vowed to never follow the advice of a particular handicapper whom you claim has led you down the wrong road far too frequently.

•   You have thrown down and stomped on the Daily Racing Form (DRF) in lieu of other professional handicappers.

•   You have second-guessed yourself into the mother of all migraines.

•   You have reacted violently, cussing, shouting, and kicking the racetrack’s furniture.

•   Your blood pressure has elevated significantly.

•   Racetrack security has discreetly given you verbal warnings about your untoward behavior.

•   The professional handicappers (those paid to pick winners) have repeatedly failed you, causing you to lose all confidence in their abilities.

•   You swear on all that is holy (and unholy) that you will never ever come to the racetrack again.

CHAPTER TWO

Conspiracy Theories

Amusing, abundant, and asinine are but a few of the terms that come to my mind whenever I hear bettors cry about conspiracies at the racetrack. We have all heard them and may even have been guilty of uttering one or two ourselves. The following is a list (not all inclusive) of some of the more popular theories on why our horse(s) lost a race:

•   The jockey pulled the horse up in the stretch to allow others to beat him.

•   The judges changed the angle of the finish line, allowing another horse to nose yours out for the win.

•   The trainer or jockey had his money on another horse in the race.

•   The mafia threatened the jockey with an offer he could not refuse—If you win, you better keep running.

•   The jockey did not try.

•   The jockey purposely got his mount (our selection) in trouble.

•   The stewards wanted only favorites to win.

•   The racetrack calculated the tickets to determine which ticket holders have the advantage before declaring the photo finish winner.

•   The whole thing was fixed. The jockeys got together before each race and decided who will finish where.

•   The trainer used one of his horses as a decoy.

While I can certainly empathize with the bitter disappointment losing a wager can bring, I have to agree with an eloquent response to a group of bettors crying foul play. A man listened to the complaints and gripes for hours before finally asking, Why would you even come out here if you really believe the racetrack is stealing your money? Why would you bet knowing that there is a good chance that you will be cheated?

I thoroughly agree that disappointment has a way of rendering some of us unreasonable. Having said that, it is preposterous to believe that the racing industry is attempting to single us out and conspire to make us lose our bets. Notwithstanding, there are those who believe that their every movement is being tracked by an electronic eye or some form of radar.

Some players believe in an eye in the sky, a concealed group of people who monitors the racetrack patrons to see who is winning and what they are betting. These hidden spotters busy themselves transmitting information, presumably about our wagers and wagering patterns, for no purpose other than to keep us victims of fleeting success. The vets are drugging the horses we pick so as to slow them down, we feel. The horses we don’t bet are also being drugged, only these are performance-enhancing drugs, those designed to improve their performance, we assert. When all is said and done, there are conspiracy theories enough to fill the betting galleries. The theories provide the much-needed consolation for bettors who have a long history of losing and need somewhere to place blame. As with many situations in life, some find the need to blame outside factors for personal failures.

Later in this book, I will go into detail to explain the reason why a racetrack has no motive for risking the possibility of losing its license by cheating us. Remember, the track takes its money from the top. The balance is what all the patrons share. The track does not care where or to whom the payouts go. When we walk through the racetrack door, we are one of hundreds of thousands of people wagering on the races. Are we so conceited that we actually believe someone has singled us out and decided to make us losers? When a steward’s inquiry goes against us, is it really possible that the stewards have somehow identified us with the intention of plotting against us? Fellow bettors, this is what works. Whenever we contemplate a conspiracy theory, any conspiracy, we need to dismiss our own self-importance and move on to the next race. No one is out to get us, nor is anyone targeting us to lose a race. We lose simply because