Does success come from luck or skill, and how do you tell the difference? One way to find an answer: think like a pro gambler does, says football executive Rasmus Ankersen. Using sports analytics to emphasize his point, Ankersen digs into the reasons why successful companies often hesitate to change until it's too late, offering data-driven lessons on how to stay ahead of your competition.

This week, the TED Audio Collective is releasing a bunch of great episodes about sports, in celebration of the launch of a new podcast: Good Sport with Jody Avirgan. It’s a show that takes sports seriously, as the best way to understand humans and our world. Check it out wherever you’re listening to this.