While San Francisco Giants fans range from hopeful to skeptical about the team's chances of landing Aaron Judge, MLB Network reporter Jon Morosi said on Thursday "There's a legitimate chance that Aaron Judge becomes a San Francisco Giant." Judge's favorite player growing up, Rich Aurilia, went on KNBR on Wednesday and said that Morosi told him the Giants' odds of landing Judge were 50 percent, whereas the combined odds of the Yankees plus everybody else equaled 50 percent. That would mean, in essence, that Morosi views the SF Giants as the most likely team to come away with Judge. Morosi also said that the Giants would need to prove to Judge that they can win around him, but all indications are that that is their intention. He also said that the Giants might need to get closer to $40M per year to come away with Judge. As has been suggested on this show, something like 8/$320M ($40M AAV) could possibly get a deal done. The Yankees' reported offer on the table to judge is 8/$300M ($37.5M AAV).
If the San Francisco Giants are able to land Aaron Judge, what else would they do around him? It all depends on how high they're willing to push their payroll. Adding Judge would push them beyond where they've been in recent years, but they also have a lot of future flexibility with almost no guarantees on the books for 2024 and literally $0 committed in 2025 and beyond. So it's not out of the question that that could carry a $200M+ payroll in 2023, and they could go lower in 2024 if they wanted to. The Giants are set to receive $30M from the sale of BAMTech to Disney. The first luxury tax threshold is $233M in 2023, and the SF Giants are nowhere near it. Adding Judge, Carlos Correa, and Carlos Rodón at roughly their predicted AAV's would push the Giants to about $225M, still underneath the first luxury tax threshold.
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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.
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