The New York Yankees' approximate offer to Aaron Judge was reported today by ESPN's Jeff Passan. Is it something the San Francisco Giants will be able to exceed? The Yankees' offer to Judge, according to Passan, is around eight years and $300 million. That would be an average annual value (AAV) of $37.5M. That would make Aaron Judge the highest-paid position player in baseball on a per-season basis, surpassing Mike Trout's $35.5M. However, Bryce Harper's $330M total guarantee would still stand as the largest free-agent deal ever handed out. The SF Giants should be able to match or exceed the Yankees' reported offer, but it stands to reason that New York is willing to go higher than their standing offer of $300M.
If the Giants miss out on Judge—and heaven forbid he ends up on the Dodgers or something—what should they do? They're perhaps even somewhat likely to sign Carlos Correa if Judge falls off the board. Judge is clearly their top target, but Correa seems to have emerged as their second choice. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area has consistently reported as such over the last few days and weeks, and other local journalists have echoed this sentiment. Correa is 2.5 years younger than Judge, and is likely to command a similar number of years. When all is said and done, Judge is the best right now and is certainly the most likely to drive fan interest and ticket sales, but Correa might be a better fit from a long-term perspective. If the Giants miss out on Judge and Correa, there are still other top shortstops, and there are some really good top-of-the-rotation arms, and center fielder Brandon Nimmo. A lot is expected to happen at the upcoming Winter Meetings in San Diego, which kick off on Sunday.
Would the Giants consider just letting their young guys play if they miss out on free agents? Could Bryce Johnson do what Cody Bellinger does? The SF Giants seem unlikely to just let their young guys sink or swim their 2023 season. The Giants are determined to put a far more compelling team on the field next year, and they certainly should feel pressure to get back to the playoffs. It's hard to envision a scenario in which they don't come away with a much better looking team on paper going into 2023. That being said, their organizational philosophy is to always create opportunities for younger players who are deserving of such chances.
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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.
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