Aaron Judge to the San Francisco Giants? According to our friends at BetOnline, the Giants are the favorites to land Judge—if he leaves New York. The Yankees are undoubtedly the overall favorites, but if Judge leaves, it's hard to envision a better fit than San Francisco. The SF Giants are in need of star talent, and Judge is from the Fresno area and grew up a huge San Francisco Giants fan.
What, exactly, would the SF Giants be getting if they signed Judge? The one knock against Judge is the fact that he will be 31 in year one of a new deal. So if he signs a seven- or eight-year contract, he will be 37 or 38 in the final year. If Judge were five years younger, ZiPS projection system creator Dan Szymborski says Judge's projections would put him in line for a $500 million contract. Given that he's 31 and not 26, however, Judge's projection is worth more like 8/$290 million. Does that make sense for the Giants? Would they really give out a contract that large?
It's not so much about the total value. It's more about the average annual value. In Judge's case, his age is working against him and some caution should be advised when thinking about the realistic odds of the Giants ending up with him. There's definitely a fit there, but other free agents might represent a better value to the San Francisco Giants. Brandon Nimmo and Willson Contreras are a couple of quality players who might end up signing for less than $100 million, but both would plug holes and should be strong values and good everyday players. And there are other top options who are younger than Judge and figure to command less on the open market, even though the production may end up being similar. Those players include Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts.
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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.
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