AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the ”Experts,” Stand

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AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the ”Experts,” Stand

FromCold Takes Audio

ratings:

Length:

19 minutes

Released:

Sep 7, 2021

Format:

Podcast episode

Description

What the best available forecasting methods say about when we can expect transformative AI - and why there's no "expert field" for this topic.https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/

Released:

Sep 7, 2021

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (50)

Amateur read-throughs of blog posts on Cold-Takes.com, for those who prefer listening to reading. Available on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, and anywhere else you listen to podcasts by searching Cold Takes Audio.

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All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild by Cold Takes Audio
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Digital People Part 1 - intro by Cold Takes Audio
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Summary of history (empowerment and well-being lens) by Cold Takes Audio
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Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?) by Cold Takes Audio
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How to make the best of the most important century? by Cold Takes Audio
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Digital People Part 3 - Implications by Cold Takes Audio
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The Duplicator by Cold Takes Audio
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Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI? by Cold Takes Audio
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Digital People Part 2 (optional) - FAQ by Cold Takes Audio
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This Can't Go On by Cold Takes Audio
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AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the ”Experts,” Stand by Cold Takes Audio
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Has Life Gotten Better? by Cold Takes Audio
9 min listen
Forecasting transformative AI: the ”biological anchors” method in a nutshell by Cold Takes Audio
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Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning (guest post by Ajeya Cotra) by Cold Takes Audio
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Call to Vigilance by Cold Takes Audio
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Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof? by Cold Takes Audio
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Rowing, Steering, Anchoring, Equity, Mutiny by Cold Takes Audio
22 min listen
Unraveling the evidence about violence among very early humans by Cold Takes Audio
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Falling everyday violence, bigger wars and atrocities: how do they net out? by Cold Takes Audio
14 min listen
Did life get better during the pre-industrial era? (Ehhhh) by Cold Takes Audio
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Has Life Gotten Better?: the Post-Industrial Era by Cold Takes Audio
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Pre-agriculture gender relations seem bad by Cold Takes Audio
20 min listen
Visualizing Utopia by Cold Takes Audio
21 min listen
Was life better in hunter-gatherer times? by Cold Takes Audio
22 min listen
The Bayesian Mindset by Cold Takes Audio
32 min listen
Why Describing Utopia Goes Badly by Cold Takes Audio
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Future-Proof Ethics by Cold Takes Audio
27 min listen
Minimal-trust investigations by Cold Takes Audio
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Debating myself on whether “extra lives lived” are as good as “deaths prevented” by Cold Takes Audio
20 min listen
Stakeholder Management and Cost Disease by Cold Takes Audio
18 min listen

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What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century by Cold Takes Audio
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Jobs that can help with the most important century by Cold Takes Audio
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Spreading messages to help with the most important century by Cold Takes Audio
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How we could stumble into AI catastrophe by Cold Takes Audio
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Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview by Cold Takes Audio
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Racing Through a Minefield: the AI Deployment Problem by Cold Takes Audio
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High-level hopes for AI aligment by Cold Takes Audio
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AI safety seems hard to measure by Cold Takes Audio
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Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity? by Cold Takes Audio
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The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine by Cold Takes Audio
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Nonprofit Boards are Weird by Cold Takes Audio
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AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined by Cold Takes Audio
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Useful Vices for Wicked Problems by Cold Takes Audio
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Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more) by Cold Takes Audio
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Debating myself on whether “extra lives lived” are as good as “deaths prevented” by Cold Takes Audio
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The Wicked Problem Experience by Cold Takes Audio
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Learning By Writing by Cold Takes Audio
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Defending One-Dimensional Ethics by Cold Takes Audio
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Reader reactions and update on "Where's Today's Beethoven" by Cold Takes Audio
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Why it matters if "ideas get harder to find" by Cold Takes Audio
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The Bayesian Mindset by Cold Takes Audio
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Visualizing Utopia by Cold Takes Audio
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Why Describing Utopia Goes Badly by Cold Takes Audio
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AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the ”Experts,” Stand

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the ”Experts,” Stand

Description

Titles in the series (50)

More Episodes from Cold Takes Audio

Related podcast episodes