Solving the Climate Crisis - A Community Guide to Solving the Biggest Problem On the Planet

By Palmer Owyoung

Some things you will learn in Solving the Climate Crisis:
 

• Dozens of Ideas On Things You Can Do to Fight Climate Change (it goes beyond just your carbon footprint)
• How to Save Our Oceans
• How to Save Our Forests
• How to Repair Our Soil

• Does ESG Investing Work?
• Who is Most Responsible For Climate Change
• How to Pay for Climate Change
• Why Carbon Offsets are Scams
• Ways to Fix the Food System
• How Society Changes
• Why Climate Doomers are Wrong

• Is Grass Fed Beef Really Better for the Climate?
• Reasons for Hope

 

Solving the Climate Crisis is an easy to read solutions-based book that offers actionable advice readers can take to create lasting changes in their communities. The book is filled with hope that by working together, we can build a sustainable future by using science, and evidence-based solutions to reimagine our economic, political, and social systems, to stabilize the climate and restore biodiversity.

 

We hear about it on the news every day, but climate change can be confusing

 

Are we doomed? How did we get here? What can I do about it? These are some questions you have probably asked yourself.  

In Solving the Climate Crisis, Palmer Owyoung deconstructs climate change to understand how we got here and looks at how we can create a better future by building a nature-based economy in which we live in balance with our environment. Not only will this save us from the worst effects of climate change, but it will also save millions of lives, save trillions of dollars, create jobs, lower health care costs, reduce pollution, lower energy costs, and create a more stable economy.

 

 

• Language: English
• Publisher: Palmer Owyoung
• Release date: Aug 8, 2023
• ISBN: 9798223679684

Book preview

Solving the Climate Crisis

A Community Guide to Solving the Biggest Problem on the Planet

by

Palmer Owyoung

Palmer Owyoung is an entrepreneur, writer, author, and blogger. He has a Bachelor’s degree of Sociology from the University of California at Santa Barbara and a Master’s degree in International Relations from the University of California San Diego. He served in the Peace Corps in Namibia and is originally from Alameda, California, but now lives in Phuket, Thailand with his wife and two dogs.

You can find more of his work at www.PalmerOwyoung.me or www.Youtube.com/@Palmer_Owyoung for videos on solutions to global problems. You can also stay in touch at www.Twitter.com/PalmerOwyoung or www.Facebook.com/powriter2023

Copyright © 2023 by Palmer Owyoung

All rights reserved.

No portion of this book may be reproduced in any form without written permission from the publisher or author, except as permitted by US copyright law.

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in rendering legal, investment, accounting or other professional services. While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional when appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, personal, or other damages.

Book Cover by Gerd Altmann

First edition 2023

For Shawna -My beautiful and brilliant wife, thank you for allowing me to chase my dreams....

Table of Contents

Introduction

Chapter 1  The Costs of Climate Change

Chapter 2  Who is Causing Climate Change?

Chapter 3  The Problems

Chapter 4  Why Climate Doomers Are Wrong

Chapter 5  Policies and Plans to Save the Planet

Chapter 6  Reasons For Hope Part 1

Chapter 7  Reasons for Hope Part 2

Chapter 8  How Society Changes

Chapter 9  Things You Can Do

Chapter 10  Building a Nature-Based Economy

Chapter 11  Fixing the Land and Soil

Chapter 12  Fixing the Food System Part 1

Chapter 13  Fixing the Food System Part 2

Chapter 14  Fixing the Oceans

Chapter 15  Fixing Our Forests

Chapter 16  Conclusion

Part 1

What’s the Problem?

Introduction

The way we see the world shapes the way we treat it. If a mountain is a deity, not a pile of ore; if a river is one of the veins of the land, not potential irrigation water; if a forest is a sacred grove, not timber; if other species are our biological kin, not resources; or if the planet is our mother, not an opportunity, then we will treat each one with greater respect. This is the challenge, to look at the world from a different perspective.

-David Suzuki

Hope

I started writing this book at the end of 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, hoping to find hope for the future. What I discovered over the 2.5 years I spent writing and researching this book was pleasantly surprising and... hopeful, but also scary. 

Let me state I am not a Pollyanna. If the evidence said that we are doomed, I would say that in the book, but it doesn’t. In writing this book, I stuck to what the science said. If living through the pandemic taught me one thing, it is that humans don’t see the world how it is. We see it how we are.

As much as it is humanly possible, I tried to approach this project as an unbiased observer. I acknowledge the pitfalls of our current situation, the positive changes that are occurring, and the solutions being presented.

As of 2023, we are still on the path toward 3˚C of warming by the end of the century. This will still be catastrophic since science says we need to stay below 1.5˚C to avoid the worst outcomes.

But just a decade ago we were on a path toward 5˚C of warming, and 15 years ago we were still arguing whether climate change was even happening. 

Falling renewable energy prices, a move away from coal, improved efficiency, and a change in public sentiment have moved us off a path of imminent destruction. Staying below 1.5˚C at least seems reachable now.

So, while you should feel an urgency about climate change, you should not feel hopeless.

I hope this book will give you enough hope for the future, that it inspires you to create change within your life and in your community. This will inspire others to do the same and these small ripples can grow into waves of change.

With that said, let’s look at some stories being told about climate change.

Stories

As children, we are told fables that teach us life lessons and stimulate our imaginations. As we get older, we learn about money, economics, religion, capitalism, and democracy, as if they were facts, some absolute truth. But these are social constructions, not grounded in natural laws of science, rather they are ideas created by humans, that are subjective, and sometimes self-serving. 

Climate change is arguably the most important story ever told. However, it isn’t just being told by science. It is also being told by politicians, marketers, the nightly news, social media, and our friends and family.

In his book Sapiens[1], historian and author, Yuval Noah Harari says that the reason humans are the dominant species on this planet is because of our ability to cooperate. But the reason we cooperate is because of the stories we are told. If we want a positive outcome to climate change, then we need to tell a good story, one that will get people to work together. However, most of the commonly told stories are more divisive than inspiring.

The Denialists

The first comes from the denialists[2]. They say that climate change doesn’t exist, or if it does, it is a naturally occurring phenomenon that humans aren’t responsible for. They often blame the government and media for using it to control us. This is a falsehood not supported by the evidence or 97%[3] of climate scientists.

In a Pew Research Survey, only 54%[4] of US adults described climate change as a major threat to the country’s well-being versus 75% as a global average. This is sharply divided along party lines with 78% of Democrats seeing it as a threat versus only 23% of Republicans. So, if we want conservative America to cooperate, we need to tell a story that appeals to them. 

Deep Greens

The second story is that of the deep greens[5]. They say that industrial society cannot work and that technology, no matter how sustainable, is still a source of environmental waste. Since these technologies will all need to be scaled up as the world demands more solar panels, wind turbines, electric cars, and lithium-ion batteries, it will inevitably lead to our self-destruction. 

Their solution is to create a life-centered resistance movement that will dismantle industrial civilization by any means necessary.

In short, they want to get rid of electricity, cars, airplanes, computers, smartphones, televisions, and air conditioners and return to an agrarian society.

This is a radical position, but one that is short-sighted. They make a valid point, that technology alone will not be enough to save us if we don’t also learn to live in balance with nature.

However, where they fall short is in their failure to acknowledge the powerful, natural carbon sinks, that we are just beginning to understand.

When combined with technologies like renewable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, 5G, material science, and robotics, we can repair and even enhance these natural tools.

Technology will also improve exponentially in the coming decades, making the pace of change faster than most people can imagine.[6]

Eco-Modernists (Bright Greens)

This brings us to our third story, that of the eco-modernists, also known as the bright greens[7]. They believe that to prevent the worst of climate change, we just need to embrace technological innovations like nuclear energy, electric cars, and lithium-ion batteries. They say that by using technology, we can increase our productivity and efficiency, and grow our economy, while decoupling from nature and the consequences of our environmental impact.

Several prominent environmental scientists and economists hold this point of view. This includes Michael Shellenberger, who is the author of Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All, and was named Time Magazine’s 2008 hero of the environment.

In the eco-modernist manifesto,[8] they write:

"Intensifying many human activities — particularly farming, energy extraction, forestry, and settlement — so that they use less land and interfere less with the natural world is the key to decoupling human development from environmental impacts. These socioeconomic and technological processes are central to economic modernization and environmental protection. Together they allow people to mitigate climate change, to spare nature, and to alleviate global poverty."

The eco-modernists believe that there are no limits to our consumption because technology will keep making us more efficient at extracting resources from our planet.

It all sounds so promising, right? We get to go on living our lives just as we have been making no genuine sacrifices and letting technology do the heavy lifting to solve the climate crisis. While their point of view is more nuanced than the deep greens, it is still overly simplistic.

Technology will play a role in mitigating climate change and make us more efficient in our consumption of resources, but it still cannot overcome the laws of physics.

The fact is that the planet has a finite amount of resources, and our current economic system is extremely wasteful in how we use them. Couple this with human demands for more, which seem limitless, and it is a recipe for disaster.

The world needs to reduce its CO2 footprint now. The surest and best way to do this is to cut our emissions, by making our energy system more efficient, while making fewer demands and repairing our natural carbon sinks.

Also, given that nature is essential for our physical[9], mental[10], and emotional well-being, do we really want to decouple from it? In our modern world of concrete, glass, and steel, shouldn’t we be trying to reconnect with it?

Solarpunks

That brings us to our fourth story, that of the Solarpunks[11], an artistic, literary, and social movement whose mission is to create hope for a better future. Instead of dystopia, they envision a world in which science and technology, combined with a better understanding of nature, a reimagining of our social, cultural, economic, and political structures, conflate to solve climate change, create a world without poverty, famine, or pollution, with less inequality, and greater social justice.

The Solarpunk movement is trying to inspire you into taking action against climate change, by painting a picture of what the world could look like if we get things right, rather than trying to fill us full of fear and dread if we don’t.

Dr. Dean Ornish, a professor of preventative medicine at UCSF, said it well in an opinion piece for Time Magazine[12] when he wrote, What enables people to make sustainable changes in their lives, both personal and planetary, is not fear of dying; it’s joy of living.

However, the Solarpunk future is far from a foregone conclusion. It is a possibility, a reality, that we must strive for if we want to live in a cleaner, more climatically stable world. The climate crisis, if left unabated, could eventually lead to societal collapse.

Humans have never faced a challenge as complex, but as Dr. Ornish advises, I prefer to think about the world we could create if we get things right. One in which humanity and nature coexist in harmony, where the air and water are clean, and the soil is rich; the forests are full of verdant trees, whose branches are teeming with life. A world where the ocean is abundant, the corals are alive, and fish and marine mammals thrive.

While this book is most in alignment with Solarpunk, the problem I see with the movement is that it is naïve. Many of its adherents denounce the excesses of capitalism and claim that we can create a system without hierarchy and inequality, but it is short on details about how to do this.

While I believe that at some point, we will create an economic system that is better than capitalism, I don’t think that it’s going to happen in the next 10 to 25 years, which is the time frame we have to solve climate change.

A Nature-Based Economy

With that said, this book falls some place in between eco-modernism and Solarpunk. I like to call it a nature-based economy. As the name implies, what I write about is an economy based on living in balance with nature.

That doesn’t just mean getting to net zero. It also means repairing our forests and the soil. It means cleaning the air and water and repairing our oceans to prevent biodiversity loss, which is as important as mitigating climate change. 

Biodiversity is the variety of all living organisms on Earth, including plants, animals, fungi, and microorganisms, as well as the ecosystems they inhabit. It is crucial to the functioning of ecosystems and provides a wide range of benefits, including clean air and water, fertile soils, food, medicine, and raw materials. Biodiversity also plays a key role in regulating the Earth's climate and in providing resilience against the effects of climate change and the spread of diseases like COVID-19.

Like the eco-modernist, I believe that technology plays a role, but it is not a panacea, and we should not become solely reliant on it.

Like the Solarpunks, I believe we need to get back to living in balance with nature. But rather than just painting about and imagining this future, I write about some solid plans for how to get us there. 

A nature-based economy means recognizing that a healthy ecosystem provides us with economic value we haven’t been calculating, such as clean air and water, a carbon sink, physical, emotional, and mental health benefits, and raw materials. It also means calculating the negative externalities that come from burning fossil fuel and other forms of pollution. 

In the same way that nature is an interconnected web, a nature-based economy uses a broad set of tools to create holistic solutions. Rather than just depending on technology or nature to fix things, we will also look at how changing the economy, government, laws, corporations, culture, and the behavior of the wealthy, are required to create meaningful and lasting change.

This multi-faceted approach can solve both climate change and biodiversity loss. It can also address connected issues like pollution, social inequality, and lack of healthcare. 

Most importantly, we will look at what entrepreneurs, schools, communities, businesses, and individuals just like you can do to help solve the climate crisis. 

The Negativity Bias

In this book, I choose to focus more on the solutions than on the problems, not because I am a Pollyanna who views the world through rose-tinted lenses. I write about solutions because there is already enough negative information out there surrounding climate change, and you can’t get a complete picture of the changes that are occurring if that is all you look at.

Humans have a cognitive bias, called the negativity bias[13]. This means that our brains are hard-wired to focus on negative news over positive.

It is a legacy of our evolutionary biology, because paying attention to negative information, like a bear being close by, could save your life. Whereas knowing that a rainbow has just formed would only give you a temporary amount of viewing pleasure. 

The adage if it bleeds, it leads, is as true today as it ever was. The mainstream media is a for-profit business. In order to capture eyeballs and viewers, they need to focus on the negative, which is fine for selling advertising, but it doesn’t give you a balanced view of the world. 

In this book, I try to provide that balanced point of view of where we are in the fight against climate change and I offer solutions that the average person can take part in. After all, you don’t have to be a tech billionaire or a genius to help solve global issues.

As much as possible, I talk about solutions that exist today, and everything I present is grounded in science and supported with data.

I divided this book into four sections:

Section One

In the first section, we’ll deconstruct climate change to understand how it is already affecting us today. We’ll then look at the future consequences if we don’t change our ways and what it will mean for our children.

We’ll then look at the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to better understand what the world will look like if we stay below the targeted 1.5˚C, and how different it will look at 2˚C.

We’ll break down climate change by the numbers, to understand what they mean, and look at which countries have contributed the most over the years.

Then we’ll look at how we got into this crisis to begin with. Although we have known about climate change for years, we failed to act. We’ll look at how corporations manipulated us; the political and economic forces that kept us on this self-destructive path; and why we are continuing to walk down it. 

We will also look at why the wealthy are the most to blame for the predicament we are in because of their high-carbon lifestyles, which can be thousands of times higher than the average person.

Finally, we look at the major impediments to change, which include public apathy, lack of government action, and corporate greenwashing.

Section Two

In the next section, we look at why there is still hope and how many of the familiar doomer-tropes are actually just old scientific hypotheses that turned out to be incorrect.

We will read about Clair Patterson, a heroic figure who is not given enough credit for moving the world off leaded gasoline, and we’ll learn that one man can make a difference.

We’ll then look at some of the proposed policy changes and plans to transition the world off of fossil fuels. One of the most comprehensive is from Stanford Engineering professor Mark Jacobson. Under his plan, the world could transition to 80% renewable energy by 2030, far ahead of the Paris Agreement goals. It would also save billions of dollars, create millions of jobs, and save millions of lives. 

In the next two chapters, we look at dozens of reasons to be hopeful. These include new battery technology, changes in laws, aviation, construction shipping, consumer behavior, and actions being taken by non-profits, entrepreneurs, and the government. 

Section Three

The next section is about you. Yes...you. We’ll talk about adopting the correct mindset for fighting climate change based on psychological research, behavioral economics, and the wisdom of ancient philosophies like Stoicism. 

We will then look at how society changes based on the research of three sociologists and how to reach the correct tipping point to turn a social movement into a social norm and how to apply this to climate change.

In the final chapter of section 3, we look at things that you can do, in your life, at work, and within your community, to help with the fight against climate change. Some of these include focusing on your carbon shadow instead of just your carbon footprint, installing a heat pump in your house, and moving your money out of banks and investment funds that support fossil fuel exploration.

Section Four

In the last section, we look at the concept of being nature-positive and look at some low-tech solutions to curb emissions. These include repairing the soil and fungi, changing our agricultural system, empowering Indigenous groups, increasing phytoplankton production, building seaweed and shellfish farms, repairing mangrove swamps, and protecting and rewilding our forests and oceans.

No matter who you are, what economic, social, or educational background you come from. You will find actionable and cost-effective solutions in Solving the Climate Crisis.

In his book Physics of the Future, scientist Michio Kaku says that we are the most important people to have ever lived because we will determine the fate of civilization, the planet, and every living creature on it.

This is a heavy burden to bear, but what readers will find encouraging is that the issues aren’t intractable. By combining collective action with the power of nature, science, engineering, creative thinking, new technology, and systemic change, we can stave off the worst of climate change and build a better world. The real challenge we face comes down to our behavior.

Corporations, the ultra-wealthy, and government officials who sold their souls, have shaped society into what they wanted it to be. If you don’t like what it has become, then now is the time to stand up. 

Ultimately, climate change is not just an environmental, social, political, or economic issue, it is a moral one. I hope this book will inspire you and give you the tools and resources to take meaningful action. It is imperative for our planet, for our future, for our children, and for every living creature that doesn’t have a voice, that we act now, and as our momentum gathers, our voices will grow from a whisper to a scream.

Clarification

For the sake of simplicity and style, throughout this book, in most cases, I use the terms greenhouse gases, GHG, carbon dioxide, carbon, and CO2 interchangeably. I know they are not the same thing. A greenhouse gas absorbs solar radiation and includes water (H20), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), and ozone (O3). While carbon dioxide is just carbon dioxide. I do this for style and to make the book easier to read.

Net-Zero Vs. Carbon neutral

You will find different meanings for these similar-sounding terms, depending on who you ask. For clarity and consistency, net zero refers to the removal of all greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other hydro-fluorocarbons.

Carbon neutral accounts for CO2 emissions and not other greenhouse gases, and typically refers to a defined part of business operations. This rarely includes a company’s supply chain.

Net Zero means that a company reduces its absolute emissions across its entire supply chain and is the gold standard for climate change action.

Chapter 1

The Costs of Climate Change

"W e can ignore reality , but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality."

-Ayn Rand

Climate change is nothing new to the planet. It’s been going on for billions of years, but sometime around 12,000 years ago[14], the levels of greenhouse gases stabilized, and so did the climate. This was crucial for the development of modern civilization and has led to agriculture, roads, cities, technology, the creation of wealth, industrialization, and the rise of CO2 levels, which is sling shotting us back toward an unstable climate.

Archeologists and Scientists think Climate change contributed to the downfall of several ancient civilizations[15], including the Mayans in Mesoamerica, the Akkadians in Mesopotamia, the Vikings in Greenland, and the Khmer in Southeast Asia. There is no reason to believe that it could not eventually lead to the downfall of our modern civilization as well.

When we think of changes to the Earth, we usually think of them as being slow, taking millions of years for mountains to form and continents to drift apart. But anthropogenic climate change has proven to be anything but slow and is happening faster than most scientists expected. [16]

In this section, we are going to deconstruct climate change, so that you can understand how it is already affecting your life, and what to expect from the future. If you watch the news with any regularity, you already know that our world is changing. Heat waves[17], fires, floods, hurricanes,[18] tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions[19], food shortages[20], and droughts are steadily rising.

We are seeing an increase in the spread of infectious diseases[21], which could lead to another global pandemic. The changing climate is also leading to human and animal mass migrations[22] that are disrupting countries around the world.

So, addressing the impact of climate change is not only an environmental issue, but an economic and social issue as well. With that said, let’s detail some effects that we are seeing, and look closer at what we can expect from the future if we leave it to run its course unabated.

Current Effects

In October 2018, the IPCC released a report stating that we have until 2030 to act before some effects of climate change become permanent.

According to NASA, 2020 was the hottest year ever recorded narrowly nudging out 2016.[23] The seven hottest years have all occurred since 2014, and the 10 hottest have taken place in the last 15 years. 

Heat waves can exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory illness, increase disease transmission, and decrease the supply of fresh water. By 2030, we can expect an additional 250,000 people[24] to die annually worldwide from heat-related illnesses.

In the United States, extreme heat kills approximately 1,500 people[25] per year and that number is likely to rise as temperatures continue to climb.

However, to be fair, extreme cold weather still kills about 20 times as many[26] people as extreme heat does.

The extreme heat has caused a mega-drought[27] that started in 2000 and ended in 2018, in the Western United States. Scientists think it’s the worst period of drought in the past 1200 years. Similar dry spells took place in both Australia and Brazil during the same period, which have led to subsequent record-breaking wildfires.

In 2019, 40,000 fires in the Amazon destroyed 2.2 million acres, causing $957 billion[28] in damages. Between 2019 and 2020, 46 million acres were burned in Australia, costing an estimated $78 billion[29]. In 2020, fires in the Western United States burned 10.2 million acres, which caused $19.9 billion in damage. 

Although 90%[30] of these fires were started by humans either accidentally or intentionally, record-high temperatures and droughts caused by climate change exacerbated them - 2019 and 2020 broke records for the number of acres burned, but as the climate gets drier, the fires are becoming more frequent and larger in scale.

However, the excess heat doesn’t just damage the land. The ocean absorbs 90%[31] of it, which creates a warmer top layer of water which leads to more severe weather. Large storms that used to only take place once a century are now occurring a few times a decade. They have already intensified so much that meteorologists have suggested that we create a category 6 for severe storms like Hurricane Dorian, which struck the Bahamas in September 2019 and caused $7 billion[32] of damage, the costliest disaster in Bahamian history.

Just two years before in 2017, Hurricane Irma devastated nearby Caribbean islands costing $77 billion[33] and just days later, Hurricane Maria struck in the same region, causing an additional $91 billion of damage.

An economy runs on having a healthy transportation network of roads, bridges, trains, and airports. Sea level rise, floods, and heavy rains are destroying or interrupting this infrastructure.

For example, at the end of October 2021[34], the California Coastline was inundated with rains that dumped 1 inch (2.54 cm) per hour, over an area that was mired in drought for months. The storm knocked down trees, caused landslides, and created electrical outages that extended up to Oregon and Washington.

It also shut down highways throughout California, stranded motorists, and prevented goods and services from being transported. In the Pacific Northwest, the record-setting heat wave of 2021 caused roads in Oregon and Washington State to crack and buckle. 

Climate change is also affecting buildings that were not designed to deal with extreme weather. For example, on June 24, 2021, in the Miami suburb of Surfside Florida, a 12-story beachfront condo collapsed, killing 98 people.

Although the cause is still being investigated, building inspectors hypothesized that a rise in sea level, from storm surges and flooding, led to increased exposure to saltwater, which contributed to the deterioration of the foundation of the building.[35]

Engineers design buildings and other structures to operate within a range of conditions. They consider the local climate when they build them and tailor them to withstand the temperature, rainfall, snow, wind, and even earthquakes in that area. However, if conditions exceed the limits of the structure, they can become damaged, or, as we’ve seen, collapse.

They designed older buildings with lower limits when different climatic conditions existed, which means we can expect to see more buildings and structures collapse in the future.

Global warming is already costing hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars, and we haven’t even seen the worst of it. So, let’s look at what the next ten to thirty years could look like if we don’t take aggressive action now.

Food Shortages

Although hunger exists in the world, it’s not because there isn’t enough food to go around. It’s because we are inefficient and wasteful, with between 30-50%[36] of it getting thrown away. However, soon there may be extended food shortages which will lead to malnutrition.

Today, we harvest about 2.5 billion tons[37] of rice, wheat, and corn around the world. These grains account for 42.5% of human calories worldwide. By 2050, the population could hit 9.6 billion, and the demand for these grains could increase by 30% to 3.3 billion tons. This is problematic because not only does growing these cereals release a lot of greenhouse gases, but for every 1˚C of warming, crop yields decline by between 3% to 7%[38].

This means that not only do we need to increase the amount of food we produce, but we also have to do it while temperatures are increasing, and yields are declining. A 2014 study published in Nature noted that increased levels of CO2 are also causing nutrient deficiencies in staple grains like rice and wheat.[39] This means that we will need to increase the amount we consume to get the same amount of nutrients. 

Increase in Disease

The COVID-19 pandemic officially ended after three years. The official tally was almost 6.9 million deaths worldwide and almost 1.2 million in the United States, but these numbers are almost certainly higher, as many never made it to the hospitals to be counted in the tally. 

Although they haven’t conclusively proven it, COVID-19 was most likely started by an encounter with an exotic animal, during the destruction of natural habitats for development, mining, farming, burning, hunting, or the wildlife trade.

This led to a zoonotic transfer of a novel coronavirus, which eventually evolved to infect humans. Our global interconnectedness from travel and trade made it easier for it to spread quickly.

Over the past few decades, as human expansion has sped up, we have seen this same scenario play out repeatedly, with SARS, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Ebola, MERS, and even AIDS. Higher temperatures increase the likelihood of a zoonotic transfer occurring as animals that don’t normally encounter one another mingle. This, coupled with our continual encroachment into new wilderness, means that another COVID-19 pandemic, or worse, is inevitable unless we act quickly and decisively to change our ways.

Mosquito-borne diseases, like malaria, Zika, and dengue, will also spread more quickly as warming speeds up, and the Earth's tropical zones expand from the equators and into more temperate zones. This will add more stress to the global healthcare system, as we force it to deal with unfamiliar diseases. A similar scenario will play out with tick-borne diseases because these blood-sucking insects like warm climates and can spread tick fever, Lyme disease, and spotted fever.

Poor Air Quality

Air pollution is already a big problem, and in 2018, the World Health Organization[40]  estimated that 9 out of 10 people are breathing air containing high levels of pollutants. Air pollution contributes to about one in six deaths around the world, or 6.5-7 million[41] premature deaths per year due to stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, or chronic respiratory diseases.

Not only does air pollution affect our bodies, but it also affects our minds. A 2016 study, published in the British Medical Journal, said that it can affect mental and cognitive health and can contribute to mental illness[42]. Three different studies have connected air pollution with an increased risk of memory loss, dementia, and Alzheimer’s in older people.

Climate change will make existing air pollution problems worse for several reasons. As the planet heats, ozone particles form at a faster rate, which means it will lead to more smog. As temperatures climb, people will use more air conditioning, which means burning more fossil fuels.

Higher temperatures will also lead to an increased risk of forest fires because of drought, which will compound the already poor air quality.

Water

Clean drinking water will also become scarce, as droughts become more common. Since the human body comprises 60% water, and we can only survive without it for three days, this is a big problem.

We use it for food, drinking, cooking, bathing, cleaning, and washing, but we take it for granted, believing we will always have enough. Turn on the tap and it almost seems limitless.

However, according to the United Nations, by 2025[43], 1.8 billion people will suffer from water scarcity, and 5 billion will be under water stress. By 2030, they expect global freshwater demand to exceed supply by 40%. By 2050, 5 billion people[44] could have inadequate access to fresh water. 

Besides shortages because of drought and pollution, there will be increased demand that comes from agricultural production as the population increases.

Risk of Societal Collapse

In 1972, a group of MIT scientists published a study that turned into a bestseller called, Limits to Growth.[45] It predicted that by the mid-21st century, the world would be close to societal collapse if it continued to pursue a strategy of rapid economic growth. When they published it, the study caused a lot of controversy, and many disagreed with its findings.

However, a new analysis by Gaya Herrington, who works as the sustainability and dynamic system analysis lead at KPMG, one of the Big Four accounting firms, supports its conclusions.

The new study[46] examines data across 10 key variables including- population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint.

What Herrington found was the latest data most closely aligns with two scenarios. The first is called business as usual and the second is comprehensive technology.

What the study concludes is-

Both scenarios thus indicate continuing business as usual, that is, pursuing continuous growth, is not possible. Even when paired with unprecedented technological development and adoption, business as usual as modeled by Limits to Growth would inevitably lead to declines in industrial capital, agricultural output, and welfare levels within this century.

This does not mean that humanity will cease to exist. It simply means that growth will stop and decline, which will lead to less food production and lower standards of living. Under both scenarios, the models predict that economic growth will end around 2040 and then decline.

However, there is also a third scenario – what Herrington calls a stabilized world. In this scenario, the world invests heavily in education, public health, and technological innovation, and follows a sustainable path. In this scenario, the world sees the least economic decline. While this is the most optimistic pathway, it is also the least like the one that we are currently on.

Increased Conflict

Terrorism will become increasingly climate related. As water and food shortages increase, terrorists will use this as a recruiting tool in the Middle East and Africa and blame the United States and other Western countries for their high CO2 footprints. It is thought that Osama Bin Laden used this tactic to recruit terrorists for the 9/11 attacks.[47]

Personal conflicts will also increase. Evidence suggests that hot weather leads to hot tempers, and more violence and crime. A 2019 study from the University of Southern California revealed that days that had a high temperature of 85˚F (29°C), saw a 2.2% increase in crime, and a 5.7% increase[48] in violence.

This also includes armed conflicts. A study published by the Journal of Science said that for every 1˚F (.5˚C) in warming, in war-torn parts of Africa, it increased the chance of a rebellion, war, or civil unrest by 11% to 14%.[49]

The 6th Extinction

Climate change will not only affect humans. We share this planet with about 8.7 million species and as the Earth heats and ecosystems die, so do the plants and animals that depend on them for survival. Some scientists think that we’re already in the middle of the sixth extinction[50],[51]. Similar to the other extinctions, excess levels of carbon dioxide are causing this one. The key difference is that humans are speeding up the timetable.

In the 4.5 billion years since the Earth has existed, the planet has seen five mass extinctions, in which 70% to 95% of all plants, animals, and microorganisms were wiped out. Scientists believe the first four were related to climate change. The most recent extinction took place approximately 66 million years ago and was caused by a meteorite striking the Earth, causing massive tidal waves. Subsequently, dust clouds rose into the air, blacked out the sun, and sent the planet into an ice age, killing off most of the large animals and plant life.

We are already seeing the widespread loss of our most biodiverse habitats, such as coral reefs and rainforests. According to a 2019 United Nations[52] report, approximately 1 million species of plants and animals will face extinction within the next decade.

Negative Feedback Loops

One of the more complex aspects of climate change is the negative feedback loop or ripple effect that related events create. We can see one example of this in the loss of Arctic ice. Because it is white, the ice reflects sunlight, but as it melts, the dark land underneath reflects less light and absorbs more heat. This causes the planet to warm more quickly and speeds up the loss of ice.

Another example is the loss of forests due to fire. Because of high temperatures, drought-prone areas like Australia, the Amazon, California, and Siberia are experiencing record numbers of wildfires.

When trees burn, they release the carbon that they have stored over decades. It’s estimated that 10% to 20%[53] of our annual CO2 emissions are now coming from wildfires.

So, when fires occur, it’s a double whammy. Not only do you lose the trees that were sequestering carbon, but everything they’ve stored is now being released, thus heating the atmosphere faster, and increasing the likelihood that there will be more fires. 

IPCC Reports

The 6th IPCC[54] assessment report on August 9th, 2021, warned that human activity is changing the climate in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. It warned of increasing extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding, and the likelihood that the key temperature limit of 1.5˚C will break in just over a decade if we don’t take immediate action. The United Nations Chief called the report a Code Red for humanity.

One of the biggest recent advances in climate research is in attribution science, which ties global warming to individual weather events such as hurricanes or heat waves. Scientists can now say, with certainty, that humans are causing more extreme weather, including heavy downpours and extended heat waves, and droughts.

The assessment said that the pace of global climate change is speeding up, and without a doubt, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are the overwhelming cause.

However, it also said that there is still time to avoid catastrophic warming if countries stop burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible. The more we reduce emissions this decade, the more livable the planet will be for this generation and subsequent ones to follow.

The problem is that most of the biggest economies in the world are still not on track to meet the 1.5˚C temperature target, because they continue to rely too heavily on fossil fuels. This includes the US, which has been very slow at curbing emissions.

On March 20th, 2023, the IPCC released its latest climate report. Officials from the UN organization said that they are sounding the alarm bells before it's too late. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General said that "Humanity