Climate Change: the Shiny Object in the Room: It’s Not What You Think You Know, It’s What You Need to Know!

By Richard Jones

If you’re tired of hearing endless noise about climate change, global warming, and carbon dioxide, then you need facts.

Richard Jones, an energy expert, explores fossil fuel usage throughout the world, examining the current utilization rate, what we must do to mitigate usage, and what can and cannot be done through the substitution of electricity, regardless of how it is generated.

He also answers questions such as:
• How our weather patterns change and why? What is the law of unintended consequences?
• Who profits by calling climate change into dispute?
• What should the automobile of the future look like?

The author also highlights the fact that it is added heat, not carbon dioxide, that is causing global warming. Other topics include the need to generate additional electricity, the economic stimulus necessary to promote the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, and the role of nuclear power.

Cut through the noise and find answers to real questions with the data and insights in Climate Change: The Shiny Object in the Room.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Archway Publishing
• Release date: Jan 13, 2022
• ISBN: 9781665715577

Richard Jones

Richard Jones is a Fellow of the Royal Entomological Society, a past president of the British Entomological Society and author of several books on insects, wildlife and gardening. He also contributes articles on insects and the environment to several high-profile newspapers and magazines (including the Guardian, BBC Wildlife and Gardener's World Magazine), and appears regularly on radio and television.

Book preview

Copyright © 2022 Richard Jones.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced by any means, graphic, electronic, or mechanical,

including photocopying, recording, taping or by any information storage retrieval system without the written

permission of the author except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

Archway Publishing

1663 Liberty Drive

Bloomington, IN 47403

www.archwaypublishing.com

844-669-3957

Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed

since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do

not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Getty Images are models,

and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

Certain stock imagery © Getty Images.

ISBN: 978-1-6657-1556-0 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-6657-1558-4 (hc)

ISBN: 978-1-6657-1557-7 (e)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2021923717

Archway Publishing rev. date: 01/13/2022

28856.png

Contents

A Hint of Coming Attractions:

Introduction

Greenhouse Effect

Side Bar #1, Love - 15

Clouds, as Viewed from 30,000 Feet

It’s all about shades of grey

Declarations, Definitions and Directions

Side Bar #2, it’s all about models.

The Ultimate Model Test: Let’s See Who Passes

Some more Model questions

Side Bar #3, along came C, O, and H.

Let’s Define Climate Change

Weather

Climate

Our Changing Weather Patterns (né: Climate Change)

Side Bar #4, houses on stilts?

Carbon and its Importance

Side Bar #5, setting a trap.

Side Bar #6, how’s your utility bill these days?

Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

Enthalpy

Entropy

Energy That Drives Our Lives

The Usefulness of Nuclear Fuel

The Usefulness of Fossil Fuels

The Sun; The Last but Not the Least

SIDE BAR #7, that pesky Btu:

Parable Hour

Thermal Density.

U. S. Total Primary Energy Supply

Explanations of Tables A-6 – A-8

Table A-6: U. S. Energy Consumption by Sector, 2020

Table A-7: U. S. Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation, 2020

Table A-8: U. S. Electrical Energy Distribution by Sector, 2020

Fossil Fuel Usage Reductions

Table A-9: U. S. Petroleum Consumption by End Use, 2020

Table A-10: U. S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 2020

Table A-11: U. S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2020

Table A-12: U. S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2020

Summary of Fossil Fuel Consumption Reductions

Table A-13: Summary of the Reduction in Fossil Fuel Usage

Table A-14: The Reduction in Petroleum Usage, Requires Some Explanation

The Conversion to Electricity and its Impact

Let’s Connect the dots

Dot #1: Our Weather Patterns

Dot #2: CO₂ and other GHGs

Dot #3: Our Petroleum Resources

Dot #4: Fossil Fuel Priorities

Dot #5: Energy Carrier Infrastructure

Dot #6: Renewable Resource Development

Dot #7: Current Electricity Generator Mix

Dot #8: Time-of-Use and Demand-based Electricity

Dot #9: Renewable Source Problems

Dot #10: Time of Use, Gas Stations, and EVs

Dot #11: Cherry Picking

Dot #12: Our Underground National Treasure

Dot #13: The Law of Unintended Consequences: for the Want of a Nail . . .

What are We to do Before the Well Runs Dry?

The Sum of the Parts

Tables and Figures Part A

The Shiny Object in the Room: Part B

Introduction

1. Is it Climate or Weather?

Weather

Climate

2. What Drives the Weather?

3. The Human Factor

4. The Earth’s Surface, GHGs and the Weather

Stefan-Boltzmann Law

Side Bar: It’s nothing but a game of Skeet:

5. Let’s Rewind to the Beginning & and do Some Analysis

6. Let’s Get to the Core of the Issue

7. Let’s Talk About CO₂.

Another Modeling Sidebar:

8. The Results You’ve All Been Waiting For.

Model Assumptions:

9. Who Profits from Ringing the Climate Change Bell?

10. Have we been 42’d (*)?

The Douglas Adams Sidebar

11. What is Life-After- EV Going to be Like?

12. We Come to the End . . Finally.

Tables and Figures Part B

The Shiny Object in the Room: Part C

Tables and Figures Part C

Appendix A – A Treatise on Radiant Energy

Introduction

GHGs

What Happens When the Sun Shines?

That Shot in the Dark

The First Question

The Second Question

… and in Summary,

Tables and Figures Appendix A

Glossary of Terms:

A Hint of Coming Attractions:

We are going to explore many issues in the coming pages, much of which is not necessarily common knowledge for the general public. To be able to get a good and firm handle on what we will talk about, you really need to put your Science Hat on. I recognize that Science is acquiring a bad name of late, but let’s forge ahead anyway and tarnish that Shiny Object in the room, Climate Change. Topics include:

• Why the current focus on the reduction in the usage of our fossil fuel natural resource is a correct and worthy goal. However, even though it is the right thing to do, it is being marketed for the wrong reason. It’s that pesky Shiny Object.

• Why there is no doubt that our weather patterns are changing, even as we speak. However, the jury is out, and in fact has not even been seated, when it comes to determining the cause of the changes. Remember, it’s not Climate, it’s Weather.

• The reasons for skepticism having to do with current climate models, and the modelers themselves. We will demonstrate how the vicarious nature of the chaos-driven random weather events really can never be predicted accurately and with any degree of validation. Making decisions on less-than-solid information ain’t good.

• Some of the thermal aspects of our atmosphere and how those aspects are related much more to the Sun’s interaction with the Earth’s surface. It is much more about that huge, nuclear furnace that is just below our Earth’s crust, than any Green issue.

• The absolute reliance that society, and the collective living organism that we are, have on Carbon and all its interrelationships with our lives and well-being. Essentially, we can’t live without Carbon and everything it is in combination with. To attack it with abandon is reckless.

• The symbiotic relationship with our bank of fossil fuels, and what to do with what is left inside the Earth.

• The total consumption of those fossil fuels and what they are used for on a yearly basis, both globally and within the confines of the United States.

• Where those fuels are being used, what functions they perform, and the probability of being able to substitute the use of the abundant energy coming from the Sun.

• The need to understand that the symbiotic relationship with fossil fuels goes way beyond their use as a form of heat and transportation fuels.

• The issues that we must face when we move from a substantial use of fossil fuels to an almost total reliance on bio-energy and electricity generated from the Sun’s energy or nuclear power.

• Finally, how to make sure that clear heads prevail in the coming years when we approach the problem of weaning ourselves from this symbiotic tie that we have with Coal, Natural Gas and Petroleum.

There is an educational, sales and marketing job that must be performed in the very near future in order to make sure our children, and our children’s children have access to abundant electricity and fossil fuels where appropriate. Most importantly, we need to educate them on how to carry on rationally after we depart this Earth for good.

Introduction

This is where I tell you what I’m going to tell you. Later, I’ll tell you and then after that, follow-up with what I told you. Though in this current political climate science is getting some bad press, the rational pursuit of truth through the scientific method is our staff of life. I am going to cause you to wade through a morass of concepts and data which will demonstrate the magnitude of the issues relating to the substitution of renewable energy of any sort for our vast, though finite, fossil fuel natural resource. There is really no way to Dumb-Down the explanation much more than I have done in the following prose. The facets to this problem are many and varied. To go much deeper, you would need a year’s supply of No-Doze to make it through. Most importantly, if you come away with nothing else, you will realize that collectively Climate Change, Global Warming, and that pesky CO₂ issue are nothing more than shiny objects being used by the GND, Green New Deal, movement for their own aggrandizement.

Weather, climate, the changing thereof and what to do about it have become so politicized as to hide in the fog all true, unbiased science and rational thinking. Climate Change, which really is the fluctuation of weather patterns as recorded historically, is not the real issue we need to address. It is the rapid depletion of our stored, fossil fuels and how to replace both their function as convenient sources of heat, and their use as raw material ¹. What I hope to accomplish with this document is the development of a foundation of good science and coherent thought upon which we can build a dialogue based on fact. Then maybe we can take advantage of our vast, engineering resources and the free enterprise system to solve the issue of depleting, fossil fuel resources. This depletion of a natural resource that we have no way of replacing is what we should be focusing upon, not our fluctuating weather patterns which is nothing more than the shiny object in the room. Let’s eliminate emotion, political goals, financial gain, or wishful thinking from the equation. The overarching questions are:

• Who owns the fossil fuels that we extract from the Earth?

• Who should oversee controlling the use of those fossil fuels?

• Regardless of when the fossil fuels are consumed, they will still add to the CO₂ content of our atmosphere to a marginal degree and are not going away anytime soon ² ³. When are we going to accept that fact and begin to address it and stop sweeping the inevitable under the rug? CO₂ is our friend, not our enemy.

• When are we going to study the positive effects of global warming (né: CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere)? I’ll bet there are some, but politics are now in the way of the study.

• Who is winning and who is losing as a result of the GND narrative? Let’s find out and expose it.

• Who started the CO₂ hue and cry and why?

Bottom line: let’s make sure that, as time goes forward, we do the right thing for the right reason. This then allows capital to be expended prudently to arrive at solutions that have a reasonable and sustainable return on the investment. The term Climate Change is a shiny object that is a focal point distracting us from the real problem, and thus is counterproductive. As the saying goes, rightfully so, we really can’t do much to change the weather.

Greenhouse Effect

Before we go too deep into this treatise, we need to get the explanation of the GE: Greenhouse Effect out of the way. The GE has been around since time immemorial, or at least from the time that Earth acquired an atmosphere. From a very simplistic standpoint, the GE is nothing more than the process of our atmosphere acquiring (trapping) energy in the form of heat, regardless of its source, and the transfer of that trapped heat energy onto or close to the surface of the Earth. It is the temperature of the Earth’s surface, and the atmosphere within a proximity to the Earth’s surface, that drives our weather patterns.

The heat energy contained in and on the surface of the Earth is acquired in one of several ways; Solar Radiation, atmospheric re-radiation, atmospheric convection, or conduction from the Earth’s Mantle into the Earth’s Crust (surface). Essentially, the transfer of heat energy from the Mantle is the main stabilizing bias about which our daily temperatures fluctuate regardless of the season. Believe it or not, the other stabilizing element is our atmosphere through the GE. If these two factors were not present, probably we would not be able to sustain life on Earth.

Though not really a mystery, the GE is not easy to fully understand because it involves the blending of many scientific principles, the most noteworthy of which is Thermodynamics and the study of Psychrometry. Big words and esoteric terms, but let’s dumb-it-down for those of us that have our feet on the ground.

Side Bar #1, Love - 15

Quite honestly, the GE is all about radiation. All normal matter emits electromagnetic radiation, assuming that its temperature is above 0 °K or 0 °R (absolute zero). This radiation is a conversion process which changes a body’s internal heat to electromagnetic energy. This is a constant Entropy process, and for the most part is reversable. More on Entropy later. Likewise, to some degree, all matter absorbs radiant energy, some compounds more than others ⁴. It should be noted here that all matter absorbs and emits radiation at the same rate. In other words, matter’s absorptivity and emissivity have the same value. Given this explanation, the exchange of radiant energy between our atmosphere and the surface of the Earth can be likened to a tennis player daily practicing his serve.

On the first day of his practice session, during the daytime, while he is at work, the Sun showers him with practice balls to fill his practice ball bucket. At night, he uses these bucket balls to serve balls to a round disk down court from his position. If he can hit the disk, the ball bounces back to him so he can use it to refill his bucket. If he is in equilibrium with the number of balls he gets from the Sun each day, and the number of balls that he recovers from the disk-hits, then at the start of the next practice session, he has the same number of balls in the bucket.

However, if over time, the disk becomes larger in diameter, but his skill remains constant, more balls will be returned. He then will begin to accumulate balls to the point where his bucket overflows and he serves himself to an early grave.

Using this analogy, where the tennis balls are really heat energy, the GNDers cast the fear that our biosphere will accumulate energy to the point where humanity as we know it will cease to exist. However, I propose that there really is a hole in the bucket that the GNDers (and their complicit scientific community) are either totally unaware of, they know about but won’t tell us, or they refuse to find because it doesn’t fit their narrative. To obtain equilibrium, we need to find out the right balance between the two sources of radiation. Right now, we have no clue what those values are today, in 2021. That said, I expose more food-for-thought in Parts B & C

The ability of our atmosphere to acquire and radiate heat energy is inherent on all gases that compose our atmosphere. However, the majority of the individual, molecular impact, is contained in what are termed as Greenhouse Gases, GHG ⁵, basically due to their absorptivity/emissivity values. The composition of our atmosphere ⁶ is shown in Table A-1. Note that in the table, water vapor is not included in the Dry Atmosphere section. This is because our atmosphere is really a solute for water vapor and the psychrometric properties of this relationship are well known and well documented. The real issue is that at any moment in time, the amount of water vapor in the air is not constant, something over which we have little control, and literally varies from moment to moment.

A classic example of this is the difference in the feeling of the air as you exit an air-conditioned (cooled) space. The odds are extremely high that the air outside of the conditioned space contains substantially more water vapor on a percentage basis, than the air within the conditioned space. As a matter of fact, a primary function of an air conditioning system is to remove some of the moisture dissolved in the air, aside from changing the temperature. The big however here is that probably the composition of the other components listed above in the air both inside the conditioned space, and outside the conditioned space, remain the same.

Now, not all components of the Earth’s atmosphere contribute to the GE equally. Though, as mentioned above, they all emit and re-radiate energy to one degree or another, but they all don’t absorb and emit radiant energy at the same rate or amount. Only the GHGs contribute to the GE to any degree. In general, GHGs are not single elements, as is O₂ or N₂. They are multi-atomic compounds (molecules) such as Dihydrogen Oxide, H₂O (water), Carbon Dioxide, CO₂, Nitrous Oxide, N₂O and Methane, CH₄. Table A-2 lists the most prevalent GHGs in the order of their contribution to the GE.

We really need to run a sensitivity analysis on the impact of each of the elements contained in Table A-2, however the data to do so is sketchy at best with the exception of moisture as it pertains to the air temperature. Table A-3 shows how sensitive the contribution of water vapor dissolved in the air is to the average temperature of the surrounding air. This data is taken directly from the ASHRAE Psychrometric Chart No. 1, ©1992 ASHRAE. The weights shown are with the air at saturation conditions and atmospheric pressure of 29.921" Hg (14.696 psi).

As can be seen in Table A-3, the amount of moisture that the air can hold is substantially dependent upon the temperature of the air. A straight-line interpretation of that statement, given what we see in Table A-2 above, is that more moisture means more reflective energy, which means more moisture, which means more heat. You can see where this could end up. One might also ask, with temperature fluctuations that occur over time, where does the moisture come from and where does it go when not in the air? This leads into the discussion of clouds; the most nebulous element used to predict