Quench the Fire: A Search for Balance in the Understanding of Climate Change

By Terry Lucas

"Quench the Fire" is a comprehensive review of the subject of climate change, from a description of the basic science to the presentation of a detailed plan to mitigate the effects. A quantitative approach is used, where each mitigating strategy is evaluated in terms of its potential effect on the avoidance of temperature escalation. The results are surprising, and will lead you to reconsider many of the suppositions commonly espoused by media pundits and political leaders. What are the real effects of climate change in today's and tomorrow's world, and what effects are mistakenly attributed to climate change? What contribution to temperature de-escalation can be provided by electric vehicles and wind and solar power? Is there a place for nuclear power? What future technologies can make important contributions? The answers are here.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Tellwell Talent
• Release date: Aug 4, 2021
• ISBN: 9780228858935

Terry Lucas

Terry Lucas is a retired mechanical engineer with a long multi-disciplinary history in aerospace. He held various technical and managerial positions with a prominent gas turbine design company. In the later years of his career he was made a fellow, a designation that recognizes outstanding technical achievement and leadership in specific engineering disciplines. He lives in Montreal, Canada.

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Quench the Fire

A Search for Balance in the Understanding of Climate Change

Terry Lucas

Quench the Fire

Copyright © 2021 by Terry Lucas

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law.

Tellwell Talent

www.tellwell.ca

ISBN

978-0-2288-5892-8 (Hardcover)

978-0-2288-5891-1 (Paperback)

978-0-2288-5893-5 (eBook)

Dedication

This book is dedicated to:

My siblings. Those who have passed, and those who remain.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Chapter 1 The Greenhouse Effect

Evidence of Greenhouse Gas Impact on Our Planet

Evidence of the Warming of Our Planet

What are the Skeptics Saying?

Chapter Conclusions

Chapter 2 The Consequences of Warming in Today’s World

Extreme Weather

More Powerful Storms

Increased Precipitation

Effects in Arid Environments

A Contrary Opinion About Extreme Weather

Risks to Wildlife Caused by Habitat Change

Rising Sea Levels Caused by Melting of Glacial Ice and Water Thermal Expansion

The Arctic

Analytical Study on Loss of Summer Sea Ice

The Antarctic

Climate Change in the Public Eye (Part 1)

Chapter Conclusions

Chapter 3 Consequences of Warming in the Future World

Sea Level Rise

Extreme Weather as it Affects Humans

Extreme Weather as it Affects Animals and Plants

Climate Change in the Public Eye (Part 2)

Chapter Conclusions

Chapter 4 Fossil Fuels Consumption and Supply

Population and Urbanization

Fossil Fuel Consumption

The Supply Side

Conclusions from this Chapter

Chapter 5 Mitigation Efforts in Today’s World

Status of Renewable Energy Sources

Wind Power

Analytical Study: Impact of Large Global Wind Penetration on Emissions

Solar Power

A Real-World Study for Wind and Solar

Electric Vehicles (EV)

Electric Trucks

Biomass

Biofuels

Reduction in Consumption

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Reduction

Other Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions

Conclusions from this Chapter

Chapter 6 The Geopolitical Landscape

A Canadian Perspective

The International Agreements

Social Activism

Communication

Conclusions from this Chapter

Chapter 7 Proposals for Change

Item 1: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

Item 2: Emissions from Fossil Fuel Production

Item 3: Carbon Capture and Sequestration

Item 4: Hydrogen

Item 5: Nuclear – Fission – Uranium

Item 6: Nuclear – Fission – Thorium

Item 7: Nuclear – Fusion

Revisiting Wind, Solar and Electric Vehicles

A Possible Plan of Action

Summary of Assumptions

The Geopolitical Landscape – Redux

Preparing for Climate Change

Conclusions from this Chapter

Chapter 8 Conclusions from this Book

Afterword

Bibliography

Acknowledgments

About the Author

Introduction

This book is not a record of all that I know about the subject of climate change at the time of writing. Rather it is a journey of discovery for me, where I start here with some basic knowledge and interest and gradually, chapter by chapter, reveal to myself and to the reader whatever I find to be rational and well supported by evidence.

That is not to say that I have no plan. I have arranged 7 chapters which address one by one the principles that need exploration in order to arrive at the end with a possible plan that I would humbly recommend to decision-makers who might see fit to consider.

In the first chapter I will explore the evidence that climate change exists, and that it is caused by human activity. For now, I am assuming that I will find these two basic tenets to be true, although obviously I must keep an open mind. In the second Chapter I will look at what effects, if any, that climate change is having in today’s world. In the third, I will look at projections of what might be expected in the future if climate change continues at rates predicted by the experts. In the fourth, I will explore the history and impacts of fossil fuels. In the fifth I will evaluate the solutions to emissions reductions that are currently active in today’s economies. In the sixth I will attempt to tackle the beast that I call The Geopolitical Landscape. Finally, armed with the sum total of my new knowledge, I will attempt in the seventh Chapter to explore future solutions and make some recommendations.

Why am I doing this? Firstly, I am a scientist myself, although I have no particular skills in many of the various sub-disciplines that make up climate change science. I am, however, true to the principles of scientific endeavor. My natural curiosity has in the past led me to dig deeper into claims made about climate science that I find in the media, and often I have found faulty science, or no science at all. A large collection of such experiences leads me here. As you read on, you will find real world examples of what I mean.

My background is in Mechanical Engineering, and in the course of my career I have come to be something of an expert in a few sub-disciplines, such as heat transfer, assessment of structural load capability, and several subjects associated with the design and operation of gas turbine engines. As I gained experience, I was tasked with integration of many sub-disciplines, including some with which I was only superficially familiar, to arrive at solutions to multi-disciplinary problems. This makes me somewhat qualified to do the job I am taking on here. It is important to understand, however, that there are myriad disciplines and sub-disciplines involved, making no-one on Earth a true expert in this broad subject.

I know in advance that I will be doing small calculations that will serve to validate or invalidate assumptions being made about the science. You will find these are simple calculations and I will undoubtedly have to explain why they still work to prove the points I am making. It is true that extraordinarily complex phenomena require in turn complex calculation methodologies to characterize them, but it is also true that simple, fundamental principles cannot be violated.

Let me give an example right here so that my approach is clear and well understood. If a person wishes to climb a mountain, taking the route of least resistance and requiring the minimal energy expenditure, she may have to look at 3D topographical maps of the various ascent routes to find the optimal one. Longer routes would be less steep, but energy is expended even over flat terrain, so why assume that the long ones are the easiest? Perhaps the shortest, steepest route is actually the best one. Or maybe a middle ground is best. Calculations can be done using her previously characterized metabolism at different paces and different levels of physical stress to arrive at the best solution.

Such calculations require a lot of input data and a certain level of complexity in the analytical process. On the other hand, there is one fundamental principle that cannot be avoided: the absolute minimum possible energy expenditure has to be equal to her body weight multiplied by the change in elevation. This is indeed a simple calculation to do, and it is mostly at that level that I will be operating as I take my journey.

For readers with less interest in the detailed calculations, the various charts and conclusions drawn from them can be accepted at face value. In this case, the book should read fluidly. For those requiring validation of the conclusions, the calculations and assumptions will be well described and subject to challenge.

Given the book will likely be filled with calculations and charts, the following question comes to mind, and only because I have imagined it being asked by a prospective publisher: Who is the target audience for this book?

Here is a list of possibilities:

Members of the Climate Change science community who are steeped in their sub-disciplines but might like to be more informed about the entire scope of the issue.

A sector of the general public that wishes to get more informed about Climate Change, but not so much that they want to read all of the scholarly papers.

Policy makers in governments and private enterprises who would like to have in one place a simple guide with enough validated facts to make them conversant on the issues.

The usual groups of climate science deniers and climate change alarmists who may try to extract some unintended ammunition for their causes.

Finally, I would like to describe here one of my hopes for an outcome of this book. I have called it Quench the Fire, and of course I mean that literally and figuratively. The literal one is created by the burning of fossil fuels that reportedly (pending Chapter 1!) is contributing to anthropogenic Climate Change. The figurative ones are the fires created by overheated dialogues on all facets of the issue. I would like to hear respectful discussions that engage people in committing to common goals, and I would like to feel sure that those discussions are firmly grounded with factual information that everyone can support. That is too lofty a goal for this book alone, but I am hoping it can be a contributor.

Chapter 1

The Greenhouse Effect

Information on the basics of how warming is thought to occur is readily available on the internet. Typically, it is limited to overviews of the problem which by themselves are insufficient to be convincing from a scientific point of view. It basically says: Trust me, the scientists all agree. On the other hand, it is possible to find learned papers on the subject which can be quite daunting for the uninitiated (which certainly includes me).

I have managed to extract the science to the best of my ability. I hope it is interesting and informative.

Ultimately, the Earth’s only source of heat is our sun, and the Earth also emits heat to its surroundings. In this case, the surroundings are the atmosphere, and outer space.

Heat is transferred by conduction, convection, and radiation. Conduction is heat transferring inside a body from one boundary to another. If you add heat to one end of a metal bar, you will soon feel heat arrive at the other end. Convection is heat transferred from a fluid to a solid body at the interface by friction that occurs as a result of fluid motion. You can feel heat being drawn away from your body by a cold wind, and the amount is certainly a function of the wind speed. Finally, radiation is heat carried by electromagnetic waves, travelling to and from any body interacting with its surroundings. On a balmy 20oC day, it is comfortable in the shade, but it can feel a lot hotter in the sun, which radiates heat directly to our bodies.

All of these mechanisms of heat exchange are at work on the earth, at all times. Models that attempt to predict temperatures of the atmosphere and the ocean waters are very sophisticated and need a great deal of calibration from terrestrial measurements. However, it is observed that there are self-regulating mechanisms that maintain average temperatures relatively constant, and important changes are typically only observed over centuries or millennia. Presumably, this is because, in the end, there is a relatively fixed amount of heat coming from the sun, when averaged over the yearly cycle. Despite the many interactions that cause heat exchange, on average the Earth has arrived at an equilibrium.

The image below, taken from the US National Weather Service, shows schematically many of the processes at work. From the point of view of maintaining heat balance, radiation is the dominating mechanism. Convection and conduction are all terrestrial phenomena in a closed loop.

It is important to understand this summary of heat exchange before proceeding. The absolute value of the individual numbers may be questioned, but roughly this provides a good overview to start our exploration of climate change science. The figure is divided into 3 regions: on the left is the heat exchange with the sun, in the middle is heat exchange with the atmosphere, and on the right is heat exchange with the earth. All components are related to each other in some way. About half of the sun’s energy is absorbed by the earth. The rest is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected away. Most of the heat emitted by the earth is absorbed by the atmosphere. Then, the atmosphere radiates back to earth and also to outer space. These processes have reached an equilibrium over many millions of years, meaning that the mean temperatures of the earth’s surface and the atmosphere are stable.

Exchange between the Earth and the atmosphere is the primary mechanism that we need to discuss here. In the schematic below, it is shown that the temperature of the radiating body determines the wavelengths at which radiation is emitted. The sun has roughly a surface temperature of 5800oK. It consequently emits radiation at short wavelengths. The temperature of the Earth’s surface averages out to 290oK (17oC), so it emits radiation at much longer wavelengths. See image below from the American Chemical Society, with yellow representing the sun and red the Earth.

If the atmosphere were nonexistent, the earth would release much more heat to space than it currently does. Consequently, it would be much colder, more like the moon. Our atmosphere is in fact one giant greenhouse that keeps some of the sun’s heat trapped, much to the benefit of all life on Earth.

The chemical composition of the atmosphere determines its propensity to either capture heat or allow it to escape to space. Each molecule has its own signature. The primary components of dry air are nitrogen (N2) at 78%, Oxygen (O2) at 20.9%), and Argon (Ar) at 0.9%. That leaves only 0.2% for all the remaining gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2) at around 0.04%. Another important content is water vapor which varies but can reach 2%.

The figure below from Wikipedia combines the effects of incoming and outgoing radiation, including the effects of individual gases.

The data behind this graph is simply the well-known measured radiative scattering capabilities of different gases, across the whole wavelength spectrum. These have been measured in laboratory experiments.

In the UV (Ultraviolet) regime, oxygen and ozone play the important role of blocking potentially harmful radiation.

Water vapor plays a significant role, both in absorbing and scattering both incoming short-wave radiation and outgoing long-wave radiation. It is unquestionably the most important greenhouse gas.

CO2, Methane and Nitrous Oxide are shown to have little or no effect in blocking incoming radiation, but they have a role to play in absorbing radiation from the Earth’s surface, and thus are considered greenhouse gases.

Nitrogen is missing from the figure, even though it is the most abundant molecule in our atmosphere. It allows 100% transmission of radiation in all frequency ranges, and therefore plays no role in radiative heating or cooling. It does, however, act to absorb heat generated by greenhouse gases and therefore provides a warm blanket around our planet.

Although methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) are much more powerful greenhouse gases than CO2 for a given quantity of gas, they exist in much smaller quantities. In the table below, taken from Wikipedia and derived from numerous sources, the net relative effect of these gases can be seen in the last column. CO2 is by far the largest contributor, but the other 2 are still significant.

The role of water vapor cannot be underestimated. If the presence of other gases like CO2 causes warming, then the air is able to hold more water vapor. Expressed differently, the relative humidity might stay the same, but the absolute value of water vapor will increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, it will exacerbate any warming effects caused by the other gases, causing escalation of the warming effects.

We have seen,