The MX Book: The numbers that fuel the motocross engines

By SagehenMacGyver47 and Ben Funke

 A window on analysis of holeshots, pros vs amateurs, injuries, and more in Motocross -- generating fascinating conclusions.  A new way to enjoy the sport even more.  It’s a challenge.  Are all the topics easy?  Certainly not.  But it’s worth the effort, and I think that if you’re a fan of motocross, you’ll want to get to know the ideas in this book. 

• Language: English
• Publisher: SagehenMacGyver47
• Release date: Dec 28, 2016
• ISBN: 9781386593447

Book preview

Foreword by Jeremy Malott

Over the last decade of my career working with motocross athletes and events, I’ve seen a lot of people in the sport, and everyone is always looking for that new way to find an advantage.  Every once in a while, a unique perspective emerges, and that’s what you’ll find here.  And this new perspective could be valuable for everyone who’s evaluating motocross, from the casual fan all the way up to factory and sponsor executives who fund the teams.  Does it answer all the questions?  Of course not.  There are no simple answers, but this provides a new way to address the questions.

The motocross community of course values tradition, and we hold on to those customs and memories.  But also ingrained in the sport is an instinct to innovate and push the limits.  When I drew up the plan for Red Bull Straight Rhythm, that was just the thing -- exploring something new and different, even turning the tradition of motocross racing on its head.  And that’s what I see in the unprecedented ways this book is approaching MX analysis. 

A different perspective from an outsider viewpoint provides a valuable window on analysis of holeshots, pros vs amateurs, injuries, and even as basic as how to look at one race’s results, providing fascinating conclusions.  That said, the objective isn’t to reinvent motocross as we know it, just to find newer, more interesting -- and sometimes more accurate -- ways to enjoy the sport even more.

Be warned, it’s a challenge.  Are all the topics easy?  Certainly not.  But it’s worth the effort, and if you’re a fan of motocross, you’ll want to get to know the ideas in this book. 

--Jeremy Malott, identifying motocross talent and helping motocross grow for as long as I can remember

Table Of Contents

Foreword

Meet The Data

Section 1: EVALUATING RESULTS

EVALUATING RESULTS -- 4th out of how many?

EVALUATING RESULTS -- Bringing Advancement Points out of the Stone Age

EVALUATING RESULTS -- Adjustments that apply to Pro Points

EVALUATING RESULTS -- mAP and Laptimes

EVALUATING RESULTS -- The Most Dominant Win

Section 2: RIDER IMPROVEMENT & AGING

Meet The Riders

RIDER IMPROVEMENT/AGING -- Aging Curves

RIDER IMPROVEMENT/AGING -- Pro/Amateur Tiers

RIDER IMPROVEMENT/AGING -- Examples of the Pro/Am Tiers

RIDER IMPROVEMENT/AGING -- Age versus Experience

RIDER IMPROVEMENT/AGING -- Age versus Class

Section 3: RACE POSITION & WIN PROBABILITY

WIN PROBABILITY -- Who’s In First?

WIN PROBABILITY -- It’s a Motocross version of WPA (Win Probability Added)

WIN PROBABILITY -- Win Expectancy versus Points Expectancy

WIN PROBABILITY -- So why even go into all of this?

WIN PROBABILITY -- The Holeshot

WIN PROBABILITY -- Consistency

Section 4: PREDICTING MOTOCROSS

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Forecast: This will be the fun part

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- The Philosophy

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Input 1: Recent Performance

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Input 1a: Other Recent Performance

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Input 2: Age

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Real-life Motocross predictions with 2 Inputs - would Marcels The Monkey be proud?

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Amateur Predictions & Putting The Pro/Am Tiers To The Test

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Supercross Full-season rookies

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- MX Pro Unadilla Rookies

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Track/Location Adjustment

PREDICTING MOTOCROSS -- Elo Ratings

Section 5: The Numbers On Injuries

THE NUMBERS ON INJURIES -- Injures Are Random (until they aren't)

THE NUMBERS ON INJURIES -- Making The Injury Adjustment

Conclusion: Putting It All Together

PUTTING IT ALL TOHETHER -- The Big Down To The Small

Charts and Tables

1 -- Table A: Consolidated MX classes by rider age & bike size, in order of estimated ability…..xii

2 -- Table 1.1: %-ile versus Rank -- Cole Seely…..3

3 -- AMA Rider Advancement points…..6

4 -- Table 1.2: Advancement Points (AP) versus Modified Advancement Points (mAP)…..9

5 -- Table 1.3: MX Pro Race Points versus mAP (Hangtown 2016 450MX)…..12

6 -- Table 1.4: mAP and mAP based on laptimes (mAPl) (Hangtown 2016 450MX)…..14

7 -- Table 1.5: Lapped Riders -- Through Week 16 of 2016 Supercross…..18

8 -- Table 1.6: +Lapped Seconds -- Through Week 16 of 2016 Supercross…..20

9 -- Table 1.7: Seconds Ahead Of -- Through Week 16 of 2016 Supercross…..21

10 -- Table 1.8: Winner versus 2nd Place Laptimes (Average in Laps 2-18) -- Through Week 16 of 2016 Supercross…..22

11 -- Table 1.9: Winner’s Z-Score -- Through Week 16 of 2016 Supercross…..24

12 -- Chart 1.1: Eli Tomac at Hangtown 2015, MX 450…..27

13 -- Chart 1.2: Eli Tomac at Hangtown 2015, MX 450 -- Moving Average…..28

14 -- Chart 1.3: Eli Tomac at Hangtown 2015, MX 450 -- Moto 2 Bar Chart…..29

15 -- Chart 1.4: Eli Tomac at Hangtown 2015, MX 450 -- Z-Score…..30

16 -- Chart 2.1: MX Aging Curve…..37

17 -- Chart 2.2: SX Aging Curve…..39

18 -- Chart 2.3: MX Aging Curve using cubed function…..41

19 -- Table 2.1: Tier Penalty -- 450MX & 250MX…..46

20 -- Table 2.2: Tier Penalty Between 450MX & 250MX: Kyle Cunningham…..46

21 -- Table 2.3: Tier Penalty Calculations Sample…..48

22 -- Table 2.4: Tier Penalty Ranking Sample…..49

23 -- Chart 2.4: MX Pro & Amateur Tier Overlap…..52

24 -- Table 2.5: Legible MX Pro & Amateur Tier Overlap…..53

25 -- Chart 2.5: Average Yearly % Overall -- Dean Wilson…..56

26 -- Chart 2.6: Average Yearly % Overall -- Eli Tomac…..58

27 -- Chart 2.7: Average Yearly % Overall -- Jason Anderson…..60

28 -- Chart 2.8: Average Yearly % Overall -- Kyle Chisholm…..61

29 -- Chart 2.9: Yearly % Overall Comparison -- Jason Anderson, Davi Millsaps, and Cole Seely…..63

30 -- Chart 2.9b: Yearly % Overall Comparison -- Chart 2.9 extended into 2016…..65

31 -- Chart 2.10: Experience Curve -- Lites Pro and Upper Pro…..67

32 -- Table 2.6: Average Age Of MX Classes…..70

33 -- MotoXGraphs Win/Points Expectancy Table…..78

34 -- Table 3.1: Win Expectancy/Probability Added & Points Expectancy/Probability Added - Example…..83

35 -- Chart 3.1: Win Expectancy/Probability Added - Example…..84

36 -- Chart 3.2: Points Expectancy & Points Probability Added…..85

37 -- Chart 3.3: Win Expectancy -- Eli Tomac & Ken Roczen, Week 7, 2016…..86

38 -- Chart 3.4: Opening Position versus Finishing Position -- 450SX 2016 …..89

39 -- Chart 3.5: Two dimensions - Opening Position versus Finishing Position -- 450SX 2016 …..90

40 -- Chart 3.6: Trendline - Opening Position versus Finishing Position -- 450SX 2016 …..91

41 -- Chart 3.7: Riders’ Opening and Finishing Positions (Top Half) -- 450SX 2016 …..93

42 -- Chart 3.8: Riders’ Opening and Finishing Positions (Bottom Half) -- 450SX 2016 …..93

43 -- Chart 3.9: Riders’ Average Opening and Finishing Positions -- 450SX 2016 …..94

44 -- Chart 3.10: Christophe Pourcel, Blake Baggett, Chad Reed -- Lap Chart 450SX 2016 …..97

45 -- Chart 3.11: Christophe Pourcel, Blake Baggett, Chad Reed -- Histogram 450SX 2016…..98

46 -- Table 4.1: Example Marcels weighting -- Ryan Dungey - MX Season standings…..107

47 -- Table 4.2: Example Marcels weighting -- Ryan Dungey - MX Race Finishes…..108

48 -- Table 4.3: Example Marcels weighting -- Ryan Dungey - MX Lap Times…..110

49 -- Chart 4.1: Supercross versus MX Outdoor…..113

50 -- Chart 4.2: Supercross versus MX Outdoor -- Callouts…..114

51 -- Chart 4.3: MX Outdoor Year-over-year Correlation…..116

52 -- Chart 4.4: Supercross Predictions - 2016…..121

53 -- Table 4.4: Supercross Predictions, Per-week - 2016…..124

54 -- Chart 4.5: MX Outdoor 450 Predictions - 2016…..126

55 -- Table 4.5: MX Outdoor 450 Predictions, Per-week - 2016…..128

56 -- Chart 4.6: MX Outdoor 250 Predictions - 2016…..131

57 -- Table 4.6: MX Outdoor 450 Predictions, Per-week - 2016…..132

58 -- Table 4.7: Loretta’s 450 A Predicted & Actual Top 20 - 2016…..137

59 -- Table 4.8: Loretta’s 250 A Predicted & Actual Top 20 - 2016…..139

60 -- Table 4.9: Loretta’s Supermini 1 (12-15) Predicted & Actual Top 20 - 2016…..142

61 -- Chart 4.7: 250SX Rookies - Amateur MX Results…..146

62 --      Benny Bloss  (Chart 4.8)…..147

63 --      Jacob Williamson  (Chart 4.9)…..148

64 --      Mitchell Harrison  (Chart 4.10)…..149

65 --      Chase Marquier  (Chart 4.11)…..150

66 --      Josh Cartwright  (Chart 4.12)…..151

67 --      Zac Commans  (Chart 4.13)…..152

68 --      The Results (Table 4.10)…..154

69 -- Chart 4.14: Supercross Rookies Decline - 2016 250SX…..155

70 -- Table 4.11: Top 2.5% 250 A Riders Transitioning To Lites Pro…..162

71 -- Table 4.12: Stadium Variance Example - O.Co Coliseum…..166

72 -- Chart 4.15: Stadium Variance -- 2016 Supercross…..167

73 -- Chart 4.16: Stadium Variance versus 50% -- 2016 Supercross…..168

74 -- Table 4.13: Stadium Variance Magnitude Example - Georgia Dome…..169

75 -- Chart 4.17: Stadium Variance Magnitude -- 2016 Supercross…..170

76 -- Chart 4.18: Stadium Variance Magnitude, Bins at 3.5 -- 2016 Supercross…..172

77 -- Table 4.14: MotoXGraphs Stadium/Track Variance Results -- 450SX…..174

78 -- Table 4.15: MotoXGraphs Stadium/Track Variance Results -- 450MX…..174

79 -- Table 4.16: MotoXGraphs Stadium/Track Variance Results -- 250MX…..175

80 -- Chart 4.19: Elo Ratings -- 2014 MX Outdoor 450 QOC…..183

81 -- Chart 4.20: Elo Ratings -- 2015 MX Outdoor 450 QOC…..183

82 -- Chart 4.21: Elo Ratings -- 2016 MX Outdoor 450 QOC…..184

83 -- Table 5.1: Injury Future Of Riders With/Without Recent Previous Injury…..194

84 -- Table 5.2: Injury Future Of Riders With/Without Recent Previous Injury -- 2014/2015…..196

85 -- Chart 6.1: Trey Canard - % Overall…..204

86 -- Chart 6.2: Trey Canard - MX Lites Pro Finishing %…..205

87 -- Chart 6.3: Trey Canard - % Overall Comparison (250SX Challengers)…..206

88 -- Chart 6.4: Trey Canard - % Overall Comparison (450SX Challengers)…..208

89 -- Chart 6.5: Trey Canard - % Overall Comparison (450SX Challengers) -- Zoomed…..209

90 -- Chart 6.6: Trey Canard - MX Upper Pro Finishing %…..211

91 -- Chart 6.7: Eli Tomac - % Overall…..212

92 -- Chart 6.8: Eli Tomac - % Overall Comparison (450MX Challengers)…..215

93 -- Chart 6.9: Eli Tomac - % Overall Comparison (450MX Challengers) -- Zoomed…..215

94 -- Chart 6.10: Eli Tomac - 2016 450 Supercross…..216

meet the data pic AHM Factory Services

Introduction: Meet The Data

Without the data, what are we missing when we look at racing and results?  From MX amateurs to seasoned pros, this book focuses on data to challenge conventional wisdom about performance in motocross. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right, but sometimes there’s a better way to look at things.  Data won’t always have all the answers -- it's just a tool, and the more tools you have, the better. But The MX Book will strive to make motocross followers better equipped to find the truth in the race results.¹

We all want to watch and see who’s the fastest -- who will live up to the big expectations and who will crumble?  With better tools in your hands, you’ll be able to dig deeper and recognize more than just who finished in what position.  You’ll be able to truly understand the expectations going into the race and better appreciate what happened and why.  As a bonus, The MX Book makes it possible to compare any rider--of different ages, from different classes, and of different eras--with any other rider.  As well, the book introduces storytelling statistics -- giving context to which moments in the race had the biggest effect on each rider’s outcome.

Some caveats, of course. What You See Is All You Know: data is only part of the motocross story. The numbers can't always see everything, such as what the track conditions were like², if someone was riding injured, if the rider didn't finish because of his own mistake or because of equipment failure. But at the same time, data can see things that our naked eye can't -- and that's the purpose, to help understand what it is we can't easily see and bring it to light.

Additionally, the data is inevitably limited.  Thanks to AMA, eScore, RacerX Vault, and other sources, much of the underlying data is available for anyone to see online. Pro results go back into the '70s, as do the Loretta Lynn's Finals (the amateur season championship) results; regular season amateur race results, though, only go back to 2006, so we are dealing with a limited number of years there; the lap times data from eScore starts around 2008 -- it does not exist for every race and is less comprehensive the farther back you go. Right now, most data is limited to outdoor motocross (Supercross -- and Arenacross where applicable -- is kept separate) and Men/Boys.  The results considered in The MX Book are limited to men/boys because the genders don't compete together at older/professional ages.  The analysis applies to any age or gender, though.  (Women/girls analysis is still in process, unfortunately not given its due just yet).

Applicable race classes are limited to A, B, and Open classes. While there's probably some predictive data in classes C and below, part of the reason for excluding these is the amount of information is just too massive.  The same reasoning applies to amateur classes for ages 25+ (not to mention ages under 6 -- I find it difficult to believe that race results at these young ages are predictive of future success, although the data-based conclusion is unresolved).

Classes included in the data have been consolidated and grouped by bike size and age -- the order listed below roughly shows the relative ability of the classes:

Table A: Consolidated MX classes by rider age & bike size, in order of estimated ability

Table A Classes with ages

Table A notes:

- Pro Upper designates the higher of the two pro classes.  Pro Lites indicates the smaller bikes, which is different depending on the year.  Currently, of course, Upper is 450 bikes while Lites is 250; but before 2006, Upper was 250 while Lites was 125.

- Bike divisions with Jr./Sr. also have a general class -- such as Mini Jr., Mini, and Mini Sr., where in this case Mini is any Mini race where Jr. or Sr. isn't specified.

The last word of introduction, but a very important one, is average.  I’ll borrow an explanation from MotoXGraphs.  Just being in the dataset means the rider competed at the Pro, A, and/or B levels, which is quite a compliment and something that A LOT of riders wish they could do but never quite achieve.  So, keep in mind that being noted as average or even below average within a group containing many of the best riders in the world is nonetheless an impressive feat. Therefore, average in The MX Book is a term referring to the group of the best motocross riders out there, not average among every rider who ever kickstarted a bike and rode across the starting line.

Section 1:

EVALUATING RESULTS

finish order pic cole24_

EVALUATING RESULTS -- 4th out of how many?

Cole Seely finished 4th and just missed the podium.  Sounds pretty good -- I mean, bummer