A Joosr Guide to... Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner: The Art and Science of Prediction

By Joosr

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We all make forecasts in our daily lives, whether we're investing in the stock market or simply planning our weekly food shop. These forecasts shape our future, but unfortunately we aren't very good at making them. So what can we do to improve our predictive abilities?

Superforecasting reveals the predictive skills you need to make more accurate forecasts and how to hone in on these skills, using them to your advantage in your daily life. Anyone can predict the future-we just need to learn from the experts: the superforecasters.

You will learn:

· What makes a good superforecaster

· The common mistakes people make when trying to make a prediction

· How to harness the power of the superforecasters.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Joosr
• Release date: Jun 20, 2016
• ISBN: 9781785673405

Book preview

takeaways

What’s it about?

Everyone is a forecaster in their day-to-day life. This is because forecasting is all about making predictions. Whether it’s the mundane ones, like choosing a certain route in the hope of avoiding traffic in the morning, or the bigger decisions, such as figuring out when is the best time to try for a baby, we all make guesses and estimates as we try to steer our lives in a more positive direction.

The issue is that we tend to make our forecasts on autopilot. We often go with a snap decision, or make choices based on a gut feeling. We even use information that we have only just heard to guide our decision-making process. This is not our fault: we are cognitively wired in such a way that our thinking is easily influenced by the ideas, images, and stories that flow through our consciousness. Unfortunately this often skews our judgment.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and Gardner address this problem of distortion-prone decision-making. Through examining thousands of ordinary people who have somehow been able to consistently make accurate predictions (be this in politics, economics, or even war), they have worked out the science behind the