Why Were The Polls Off? Pollsters Have Some Early Theories

At some point on election night 2020, as CNN's "KEY RACE ALERTS" rolled in and the map turned red and blue, things started to feel eerily like election night 2016.

Specifically, it was that déjà vu feeling of "Huh, maybe the polls were off." It was a feeling that grew as states such as Iowa and Ohio swung even harder for President Trump than polls seemed to indicate, key counties were tighter than expected and Republicans picked up one toss-up House seat after another.

Yes, Joe Biden ended up winning, as forecasters predicted. But polls overestimated his support in multiple swing states — not to mention the fact that Democrats both lost House seats and didn't win the Senate outright, despite being favored to do the opposite.

It will likely be months until pollsters can study this year's misses thoroughly (a comprehensive study came roughly six months after the 2016 election). However, for now, pollsters have some educated guesses about what may have thrown polls off.

How much polls were off

Let's start with the, according to RealClearPolitics' polling average.