NPR

Pollsters Find 'At Best Mixed Evidence' Comey Letter Swayed Election

Polling experts have conducted an autopsy on exactly why so many polls were off in the run-up to the 2016 election. They found that state polls were far off, in part because of late deciding voters.
Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during a campaign rally at North Carolina State University on November 8, 2016.

FBI Director James Comey said this week that he is "mildly nauseous" at the idea that the FBI may have swayed the presidential election results. A new report may ease that nausea, if only a little.

"We would conclude there is at best mixed evidence to suggest that the FBI announcement tipped the scales of the race," wrote a panel of polling experts in a report released Thursday, about the FBI's Oct. 28 announcement that it was investigating new information regarding Hillary Clinton's emails.

The new report, from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, goes far beyond the Comey letter, however. More than a dozen pollsters and public opinion experts worked for months to determine what might have led polls to overestimate Clinton's support. They find that state-level polls (but not national-level ones) were particularly far off from the final election results, leading many forecasters to

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