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  • The Christian Science Monitor

    Some battleground polls missed 2016. Are they better for 2020?

    Nov 05, 2019 5 minutes

    Is President Donald Trump going to win reelection? Numerous national polls show him losing to all three of the leading Democratic candidates: Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders. But, as many voters learned the hard way in 2016, just because your candidate is leading in the polls doesn’t mean you should stock up on confetti.

    For one thing, national polls – which were largely accurate in 2016 – only indicate the likely popular vote. Predicting the Electoral College results requires a state-by-state analysis, which can portray a very different picture.

    Last time around, an overwhelming majority of polls showed Hillary Clinton leading in key swing states, but Mr. Trump swept to victory on the back of incredibly narrow margins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This week a new round of surveys shows that President Trump remains close or ahead in those state battlegrounds that

    A snapshot of the racePolling, explainedA famous polling missMisinterpretation by journalistsHow to tell if a pollster is good, or not

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