Summary of The Return of Great Powers by Jim Sciutto: Russia, China, and the Next World War

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This book does not in any capacity mean to replace the original book but to serve as a vast summary of the original book.

Summary of The Return of Great Powers by Jim Sciutto: Russia, China, and the Next World War

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• Chapter provides an astute outline of the main contents.
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CNN anchor and chief national security analyst Jim Sciutto's book, The Return of Great Powers, identifies a new, more uncertain global order. The book, which follows his 2019 bestseller, The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America, analyzes the realities of this new post-Cold War era, the increasingly aligned Russian and Chinese governments, and the flashpoint of a new, global nuclear arms race. It questions whether it is possible for the West and Russia and China to prevent a new World War, as history never ended and the global order is now uncertain.

• Language: English
• Publisher: BookRix
• Release date: Mar 13, 2024
• ISBN: 9783755471790

Book preview

PART ONE

THE GATHERING STORM

In early November 2021, senior Pentagon leadership was apprehensive about Russia's plan to invade and take control of Ukraine. The plan was to assemble a force of over 100,000 troops drawn from military districts across Russia, with the Kremlin's goal being to invade the entire country, destroy the Ukrainian military, and remove the Ukrainian government. Moscow had developed both a military plan and a political plan involving operatives from the FSB to remove and replace Ukraine's elected leaders. The US assessed that Russia would have preparations complete for a full invasion in mid-February, just a few months away. Bill Burns, current CIA director and previous US ambassador to Russia, was dispatched to Moscow to confront Putin with what the US was seeing and demand clarification of Russian intentions. Burns met Putin by video conference, and the scale of the Russian invasion force was staggering. By early 2022, according to US intelligence assessments, Russia would have close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine. Putin's message was unwavering: the force was necessary to protect Russia, and Ukraine and NATO were the real threats to peace. Burns left Moscow even more convinced that the first large-scale land war since the 1990s was coming to Europe.

As the US measured up Russian preparations for invading Ukraine, another threat loomed on the other side of the globe: China's plans to take Taiwan by force. Both Russia and China viewed Ukraine as part of Russia, and Xi Jinping referred to Taiwan as a rightful part of China. Intelligence assessments posited that China could take advantage of Russia's blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine with a blitz-like invasion of its own against Taiwan. This fear of massive simultaneous invasions was making the rounds beyond the Pentagon, and lawmakers shared the Pentagon's alarm.

The author drafted an email to then-CNN president Jeff Zucker to warn CNN to prepare for what would become a monumental and dangerous news story for their times. Most of the media colleagues were skeptical, and the US intelligence community had a major, unmistakable source for assessing Russia's military preparations now: satellite imagery revealed virtually every tank, artillery piece, and supply column. Additionally, US penetration of Russian communications was proving better than had been known, with the Russian military possibly becoming a denied area a blind spot for the US intelligence community.

The US intelligence community had a clear view of Russia's alarming plans, with Putin's assessment that the Russian military was ready to invade Ukraine. However, despite the presence of Russian troops, tanks, armored vehicles, fighter and bomber aircraft, and ammunition depots, a state of denial persisted as the invasion threat became more apparent. This led to doubts and disbelief among Western officials. Finland, Russia's neighbor to the northwest, had been closely monitoring Russia's military buildup in Ukraine with more concern and urgency. Finland had seen warning signs from Putin and the Kremlin for over a decade, and the threat became eminently clear when Putin released his demands for avoiding war on December 17, 2021. The Russian leader demanded that NATO remove all weapons and forces deployed to all countries admitted to the alliance since 1997, including eastern Europe, Poland, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. He also demanded that NATO halt any further expansion, which Finland had avoided joining. Finnish leaders viewed joining as solely a decision for Finland, and the threat of Russia's invasion was becoming increasingly apparent.

Finland's President Sauli Niinistö called Putin to discuss Russia's plans to invade Ukraine, stating that their policies and interests were in direct conflict with Finland's. Finnish officials, including the president, had a decades-long policy of engagement with Russia. However, the Finnish president's message was clear: Russia's apparent plans to invade Ukraine were in direct conflict with Finland's policies and interests.

Finnish officials, with a deep knowledge of Putin himself, had been watching other signals from Moscow for some time. Putin had been quietly building a historical pretext for war, based on dusty maps and manuscripts in agencies and institutions charged with caretaking the history of the Russian state going back centuries. He transferred control of agencies and institutions few had ever heard of under the Kremlin and therefore under his personal control.

In his conversations with the Finnish president, Putin was proving indefatigable on his version of history and justification for war. He dismissed doubters, including a Finnish leader he had known closely for years, as being ignorant of history. Finnish officials believed that Putin was not simply manufacturing this historical justification for war but was a true believer, giving Putin a convenient, historical rationale for carrying out an invasion so bold and dangerous.

While many in the West, the US, and even Ukraine continued to downplay the risk of invasion, Finland concluded war was now a fait accompli.

In February 2022, Bucha, Ukraine, was filled with skeptics about the imminent Russian invasion. Yana, a middle-class suburb of Kyiv, was focused on day-to-day routines and raising her three young children. Many Ukrainians had grown used to different kinds of war, but the prospect of a full-on Russian invasion seemed alarmist to Yana. At the hospital where Yana's mother worked, they took note of increased government deliveries of essential medical supplies, which Yana believed were getting ready for the war.

Yana started taking steps to prepare for the war by stockpiling groceries, buying porridge, tea, canned food, and sugar, and avoiding conversations about the war. She also found instructional videos on YouTube on how to survive a war, such as sealing windows with tape to protect them from explosions and avoiding weapons or camouflaged clothing.

Two weeks before the war, Yana planned