Predicting Storms - The Adventure Begins

By Robert Ellis

PREDICTING STORMS - The Adventure Begins Third Edition 2024. BY ROBERT ELLIS The full colour book shows ordinary people how to predict a storm long before it is even visible to radar or satellite. Many lives can be saved by using the simple rules explained in the book. As many as 500,000 people worldwide may die in large storms each year. Traditional weather forecasts can currently only give around 13 minutes' lead time for tornadoes spawned by supercell thunderstorms. The Tornado Early Warning Rule published in this book gives at least 5 hours early warning of a deadly tornado from its rigid straight-line signature on a barograph. Your barometer will give you at least 24 hours early warning of an approaching hurricane making landfall. Third Edition features a breakthrough in storm early warning: Severe Thunderstorm Early Warning Rule, page 27. Book has the first comprehensive compilation of rules for storms. Know when you will be safe from storms. Predicting Storms covers practical information such as whether you can walk to work, or if there will be a storm in your area within the next hour or two. All types of storms are covered in the book: Severe Thunderstorms, tornadic supercell thunderstorms, cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, extratropical cyclones, tropical storms, tornadoes, bush firestorms, fire tornadoes, weather bombs, windstorms, dust storms, and snowstorms. Rules apply to storms on land and at sea, so sea and surf are another important part of the book. Find out why we can expect stronger storms in a warmer world. Whether you are a general reader, a surfer, a weather watcher, a storm-spotter, or a storm-chaser, Predicting Storms will give you the tools to predict all storms confidently. Author is a scientist and storm expert who has been referred to in recent years in the media as a storm chaser. Getting started is easy: open book to page 5, download MARINE BAROGRAPH app (iPhone, iPad, iPod touch or Android). Riding the storm - your ultimate adventure awaits!

• Language: English
• Publisher: Goldener-Parnell Publishing
• Release date: Feb 24, 2024
• ISBN: 9780648107248

Robert Ellis

Born and raised in southeastern Pennsylvania, Robert Ellis lived in Los Angeles for sixteen years and now spends his time between California and Connecticut along the central coast. He has written and produced over 1,000 television commercials for political campaigns and has previously published two novels. Robert is currently writing the next thriller in the Detective Lena Gamble series.

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Published in Australia in 2018 by Goldener-Parnell Publishing

Reprinted 2020

Third edition 2024

Email: [e-mail]

Website: http://www.worldstormcentral.co

© Robert Ellis 2018

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

ISBN 9780648107200 (paperback) – 1st ed.

ISBN 9780648107224 (paperback) – 2nd ed.

ISBN 9780648107286 (paperback) – 3rd ed.

ISBN 9780648107255 (hardback) – 2nd ed.

ISBN 978-0-6481072-7-9 (hardback) – 3rd ed.

ISBN 9780648107248 (Ebook - EPUB)

ISBN 9780648107262 (Ebook - Adobe PDF)

Disclaimer

The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information within this book was correct at the time of publication. The author does not assume and hereby disclaims any liability to any party for any loss, damage or disruption caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from accident, negligence, or any other cause.

This book is dedicated to the memory of my parents.

Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE OF FIGURES

TABLE OF TABLES

INTRODUCTION

Ground-breaking Storm Prediction

A Foundation Work

Nature’s Law of Storms

Predicting Storms is Easy and It’s Fun

Barometers

More Reasons to Use a Barometer

Barometer Rules to Get Started

All Types of Storms Covered

Sea and Surf

Why Expect Stronger Storms in a Warmer World?

The Slow Train is Coming Around the Bend

Advances in Storm Early Warning

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1. RULES FOR STORMS

How does a Storm Develop?

Rule for Thunderstorms

The Lightning Threshold

Weather Bomb

Gale

Strong Wind

Severe Thunderstorm

Supercell Thunderstorms

Tornadoes

Hailstorms

Cyclones/Typhoons/Hurricanes

Firestorms

2. SEA AND SURF

Early Warning of Storms

Secret of the Swell

Estimating Hours Before a Hurricane Makes Landfall

Estimating the Wind

Where you are in Relation to Low or High-Pressure Systems

Crossed Winds Rule

Gusts

3. PREDICTING RAIN

An Altimeter Can Indicate Stormy Weather

Rapid Pressure Fall Foretells Storm or Rain

4. CLOUD SEQUENCES

Sequence of Cloud Arrival for Storms

Cloud Sequence for Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon

Determining Cloud Level

Calculate the Cloud Base Height

Cloud Sequences in a Nutshell

5. WHY A SMALL INCREASE IN CO2 CRITICALLY AFFECTS CLIMATE

No Slow Down in Global Warming

Why is a Change in the Earth’s Global Average Temperature a Big Deal?

Evidence for Rapid Climate Change is Compelling

Stronger Storms in a Warmer World

World Population Growth is the ‘Elephant in the Room’

How was Global Warming Discovered?

6. WINDSTORMS

7. SNOWSTORMS

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 1: WEATHER LORE SAYINGS

APPENDIX 2: DERIVATION OF THE LAW OF STORMS

APPENDIX 3: TYPES OF BAROMETERS

APPENDIX 4: STORM RECORDS

APPENDIX 5: DOUBLING THE CO2 CONTENT

APPENDIX 6: THE THUNDERSTORM RULE IN A NUTSHELL

ISLAND IN THE STORM: A SHORT STORY

REFERENCES

PERMISSIONS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgement is given to my parents for their dedicated support in all that I have done. Harry Ellis, my father, taught me that ‘if a job is worth doing it is worth doing well.’ You learn what you live, and he shared with me a passion for observing Australia’s natural environment with its droughts and flooding rains. He had his own weather station. My brother, Garry Ellis, had as keen interest in the weather. My mother, Jean Ellis, was a constant support throughout my life and with all those years of research into storms. Thanks to Luke Ellis, who reminded me of the good swell for surfers that arrives from a distant storm.

Special thanks are given to U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and to the Bureau of Meteorology Australia, especially to their librarians and photographers, for their generosity in making available their resources. Thanks to the librarians at the Sutherland Shire Library for their assistance over the years with my research.

Thanks to Dr Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology at wunderground.com and Dr Greg Holland for their assistance. Thanks to Jane Rothman and Dr Max Humphreys for their support.

Acknowledgement is given to all those who have worked on the first edition of the book, especially Gail Tagarro of editors4you, managing editor, who ensured, amongst so many other things, that the book was thoroughly referenced and the content was easily read by everyone. Kirsty Ogden from Brisbane Self Publishing Service is acknowledged for her excellent typesetting and cover design, as well as her assistance with the second edition of the book.

Thanks to Josh Waghorn, Bronwyn Melville and Reuel Mantos for graphic design work and Nurali Prasla’s team for programming the Thunder & Bushfire Storms app.

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Thunderstorm heat engine cycle.

Figure 2: Lightning bolt during storm, Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.

Figure 3: Thunderstorm over Watson Lake, Prescott, Arizona, U.S.

Figure 4: Stylised barograph of thunderstorm signature.

Figure 5: Intense cloud to ground lightning over southern Lake Michigan, Chesterton, Indiana, U.S.

Figure 6: Updraft tilts with wind shear.

Figure 7: Twin towering cumulus.

Figure 8: Cumulonimbus with magnificent anvil.

Figure 9: Lightning before rain. From back yard in Rochester, New York, town of Greece.

Figure 10: Gale-force winds lash huge ocean waves into a violent stretch of water. Drake Passage between Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean.

Figure 11: Pressure graph (mb) for a Severe Thunderstorm.

Figure 12: Cold front with squall line. Northern Adriatic Sea, Italy.

Figure 13: Sailboat approaching squall line, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, U.S.

Figure 14: Overshooting top cumulonimbus cloud.

Figure 15: Rain shaft left, rain-free base of severe thunderstorm right. Key West, Florida, U.S.

Figure 16: Severe Thunderstorm at Era Beach south of Sydney. The wall cloud (pedestal cloud) is lowered beneath the base of a cumulonimbus cloud. Picture also shows rain-free base that increases storm’s longevity.

Figure 17: Aerial view of a supercell thunderstorm. Photo taken looking northeast over eastern Kansas, U.S.

Figure 18: Intense updrafts produce a rain-free cloud base in a supercell.

Figure 19: Stylised supercell thunderstorm.

Figure 20: Pressure profile – supercell with deadly tornado.

Figure 21: Pressure profile – supercell with tornado.

Figure 22: Stylised barographs of tornadic supercell thunderstorm.

Figure 23: Waterspout in the Gulf of Mexico photographed from the NOAA ship Rude. South of Cameron, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico.

Figure 24: Twin violent (EF4) tornadoes, Wisner, Nebraska, U.S.

Figure 25: Signature shape shows tornado proximity.

Figure 26: Concave down curve.

Figure 27: Barograph of a tornado (Jensen 2010).

Figure 28: Lightning shoots up updraft & anvil of tornadic supercell at night, with car light trails.

Figure 29: Thunderstorm heat engine cycle.

Figure 30: Stylised barogram showing 6-hour steady pressure interval.

Figure 31: Hurricane viewed from satellite.

Figure 32: How firestorms form.

Figure 33: Stylised barographs of typical storm signatures.

Figure 34: Thunderstorm quick basics.

Figure 35: Predicting storms.

Figure 36: Barometer Rules

Figure 37: Swell lines in the