Your First Startup Experiment
By Luke Szyrmer
()
About this ebook
How many pairs of shoes did you buy online in the nineties?
In 1998, UK born film-school grad Nick Swinmurn was scouring the Bay Area for a pair of Airwalks, but couldn't seem to find the right size and style. Yet he knew most consumers didn't buy much of anything online. Especially shoes, which are very personal. The assumption that consumers would actually buy shoes online needed to be tested.
Swinmurn began by putting up photos of shoes from local shoe stores on a website to gauge demand. When someone ordered a pair online, he bounced back to his local shoe store, bought it, and shipped it out at a slight loss.
Even though he lost a bit of cash up front, Zappos won out in the long run. Instead of investing in technology and inventory, Zappos answered the single most important question: will consumers accept the online distribution channel for shoes? And they did. To the tune of 1.9 bln USD, when Amazon acquired Zappos ten years after it was founded.
Lots of recent converts to Lean Startup think that the main thing you need to be running a lean startup is a minimum viable product (MVP). Yet annoyingly, if you start your startup by immediately building an MVP and skimp on formulating a clear hypothesis, you're not already following the lean startup process from the get-go. You're just building a beta product, and fooling yourself with buzzwords.
What's the difference between a Lean Startup talker and a Lean Startup doer?
Experiments. Actually running them.
From the start.
Before you do anything else. Including writing a line of code.
The most common challenge founders have with Lean Startup is getting started on that first experiment. Figuring out what's actually worth testing. And then getting out there. Interviewing prospects.
Without running experiments and learning systematically, you pretty much guarantee your product's mediocrity. You're stuck with the same checklists, tools, and best practices which your competitors are already using. Not only that, Lean Startup gives you the tools to test what matters the most for a new product: the market and the marketing.
If you are just getting started as a founder, and you're not sure how to apply the critical Lean Startup skill of testing, this book is for you. The book aims to help you, as a startup founder, get started on your first experiment. When you've read the book, you'll discover how to:
- identify the riskiest assumption in your business idea
- formulate a hypothesis which tests that assumption
- choose a metric the captures the essence of that risk, and establish a signpost value
- practice a customer development interview
- learn simple techniques to keep track of your experimentation
You'll see case studies of how this approach worked at a number of successful tech companies today, back when they were still startups.
Who knows, maybe you'll even become the next Nick Swinmurn.
Related to Your First Startup Experiment
Related ebooks
Invent It, Sell It, Bank it (Review and Analysis of Greiner's Book Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFrom Startup to Scaleup: The Entrepreneur's Playbook for Growth and Impact Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsLittle Bets (Review and Analysis of Sims' Book) Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/520 Steps for Start-Up Business Marketing Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Startup Granules Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Silicon Valley Way (Review and Analysis of Sherwin Jr.'s Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSummary: Reality Check: Review and Analysis of Kawasaki's Book Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsInnovation Navigation: How To Get From Idea To Reality In 90 Days Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPitch Perfect: Raising Capital for Your Startup Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsBillion Dollar Napkin (2nd Edition) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSummary: The Art of the Start: Review and Analysis of Kawasaki's Book Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings99 Reasons why Startups fail: Lead Your Startup to Success Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFail Fast or Win Big (Review and Analysis of Schroeder's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsHarvard Business Review on Succeeding as an Entrepreneur Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Art Of Creative Thinking Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCommon Sense Business (Review and Analysis of Gottry's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Complete Guide to Inexpensive Ideaing Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsBusiness innovation: Your Company's growing strategy Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Rightsizing Your Business: Breakthrough Strategies to Create a Flexible and Profitable Business in Any Economy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsAgile Entrepreneurship: How to Start your Business Project Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Six-Figure Second Income (Review and Analysis of Lindahl and Rozek's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsLean Customer Development (Review and Analysis of Alvarez's Book) Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Guts (Review and Analysis of Lutz' Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsHire Yourself, the Startup Alternative Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFind Your Market: Discover and Win Your Product’s Best Market Opportunity Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5The Smart Strategy Book 5th Anniversary Edition: 50 ways to solve tricky business issues Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCreativity and Problem Solving (The Brian Tracy Success Library) Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Rules for Revolutionaries (Review and Analysis of Kawasaki's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDownhill: The Building of Healthy and Fast Moving Startups (Vol. 1) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsWeird Ideas That Work: 11 1/2 Practices for Promoting, Managing, and Sustaining Innovation Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5
Marketing For You
Mastering ChatGPT: 21 Prompts Templates for Effortless Writing Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Win In Court Every Time Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Copywriter's Handbook: A Step-By-Step Guide To Writing Copy That Sells (4th Edition) Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Most Powerful Intelligence Ever Discovered Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Passive Income Cheat Sheet Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Freedom Shortcut: How Anyone Can Generate True Passive Income Online, Escape the 9-5, and Live Anywhere Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Everybody Writes: Your Go-To Guide to Creating Ridiculously Good Content Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Exactly What to Say: The Magic Words for Influence and Impact Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Get Over Your Damn Self: The No-BS Blueprint to Building A Life-Changing Business Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Propaganda Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Six Figure Blogging Blueprint Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5INSPIRED: How to Create Tech Products Customers Love Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Best Credit Repair Manual Ever Written Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Psychology of Selling: Increase Your Sales Faster and Easier Than You Ever Thought Possible Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The YouTube Formula: How Anyone Can Unlock the Algorithm to Drive Views, Build an Audience, and Grow Revenue Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Building a StoryBrand: Clarify Your Message So Customers Will Listen Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Ogilvy on Advertising in the Digital Age Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5How to Write Copy That Sells: The Step-By-Step System For More Sales, to More Customers, More Often Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Influencer: Building Your Personal Brand in the Age of Social Media Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Millionaire Next Door Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRobert Cialdini's Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Summary Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Best Story Wins: How to Leverage Hollywood Storytelling in Business & Beyond Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5
Reviews for Your First Startup Experiment
0 ratings0 reviews
Book preview
Your First Startup Experiment - Luke Szyrmer
Your First Startup Experiment
Luke Szyrmer
© 2016 - 2022 Luke Szyrmer
To every founder who has the courage to admit they could be wrong, and smarts to know how to deal with it in advance, and the grit to go ahead anyway
Table of Contents
Business plans are broken…
Postpone until certainty of success?
Why market testing velocity is a success secret hidden in plain sight
Why you always start with a vision
Choose your canvas
Why your riskiest assumption is a great place to start
Let’s look at AirBnB, to see why risky assumptions matter in practice
Proving the risky demand side assumption (as they were ignored)
Proving the supply side (as they were ridiculed)
Then AirBnB were attacked as they drew attention scaling up
Finally, they built monuments to AirBnB.
Key Takeaways
How to identify your riskiest assumption
With new products, your primary goal is to manage your risks
1. Intuition
2. Who is the customer and does the customer actually have problem you think?
3. Analogs
4. Antilogs (or Picnic in the Graveyard)
5. Risk Scorecard
6. Pre-Mortem
7. My ace in the sleeve
questions
8. Talk to industry experts
9. Red team, Blue team
What you are after
Riskiest Assumption Test (RAT)
How to track your assumptions
Economic impact of risk factors
Approach 1: Tracking risk factors in spreadsheet
Approach 2: Business Modelling using a canvas tool
Approach 3: Going even wider doesn’t make sense at an early stage
Approach 4: The most important boxes according to published research
It doesn’t matter where you keep track of assumptions as long as you do
Key takeaways
How to construct your test backlog
How to verify your assumptions
Start With Assumptions About Your Market
Implicit Assumptions
How to test one specific hypothesis
Aim For Financial Significance With Pre-testing
The Painful Suck Of False Positives
Test One Assumption At A Time
How Much Does One Spend?
How Many Experiments Should You Run?
When Not to Test
Why customer outcome discovery trumps product discovery
When do you know you have a useful outcome?
1. A Specific Person, Company, or Role in a Narrow Market Segment
2. Their success metric
3. No side effects
4. Easy to execute or confirm
Case Study
What if my releases require Herculean efforts?
Why discovering outcomes first matters even more than discovering product
Key Takeaways
Why founder-market fit helps mitigate your risk
Hence the importance of founder-market fit
Strongly tied to how the founders expect to acquire customers
High growth markets will buoy up the business
Founder core competencies are surprisingly a strategic decision
What about industry outsiders as successful founders?
Summary
Key Takeaways
Epilogue: why minimum viable products are how to continue testing
A minimum viable product enables you to release earlier
Examples
Case Studies
A Marketing Experiment: The content upgrade
Take action now
Key takeaways
Additional resources
Books
Business plans are broken…
Analogy: Chris Rock and his audience {wdith=50%}
photo:David ShankboneThe Stress Factory.
It’s an ingenious name–for a place used to refine ideas. It’s also Chris Rock’s favorite place to try out new material. He comes over with a yellow legal pad, and performs for roughly 50 people. Peter Sims summarizes in Little Bets:
In sets that run around forty-five minutes, most of the jokes fall flat. [Chris Rock’s] early performances can be painful to watch. Jokes will ramble. He’ll lose his train of thought and need to refer to his notes. And some audience members site with their arms folded, noticeably unimpressed. The audience will laugh about his flops–laughing at him, not with him….He may think he has come up with the best joke ever, but if it keeps missing with audiences, that becomes his reality. Other times, a joke he thought would be a dud will bring the house down….For a full routine, Rock tries hundreds (if not thousands) of preliminary ideas, out of which only a handful make the final cut.
In short, Chris Rock stress tests
the jokes, in order to figure out which ones work for his typical audience…long before he scales up. By the time he appears on HBO, Chris feels very comfortable that the material will really speak to his audience.
It’s common practice among standup comedians, to do dry runs of new material in an intimate club environment. Ideally, the audience will be friendly and willing to accept some untried jokes that flop, in exchange first dibs on new material.
Each joke at the Stress Factory is just a little bet
. Rock is verifying his assumptions about what tickles his audience’s funny bone. Given that he stages multiple appearances, he iterates over many rough ideas, to figure out which ones are worth polishing. Once they’re fully polished, he’s ready to push record on TV cameras.
The same analogy holds true for product ideas. You need to interact with your audience, in order to find out what they want. Most breakthrough product ideas don’t start as breakthrough ideas. Most of them need to be discarded. Of the ideas that don’t, they often start life as dull but showing promise. Ultimately, they’re refined until they become great. Occasionally, there’s a fantastic idea right from the start, yet often the product creators can’t judge that effectively.
Just like with Chris Rock’s jokes, only the intended audience can.
In that context, understanding your audience and verifying your assumptions about their needs, is critical before you even start building a product or offering a service.
If you vet bad ideas immediately and only pursue really good ideas, you will spend most of your time and money identifying opportunities that were inherently excellent. Find the ideas for which your audience has latent demand–before committing to an idea. Understand your audience, and you’ll have a much easier time launching anything for them.
No entrepreneur ever writes a business plan saying that they’re going to fail. The main reason you’d want to write a long document like that is to convince yourself and others that you have a fantastic business idea (on paper). While it goes into how you plan to succeed with an idea, a business plan assumes you already have an idea that’s perfect. After all, the unique skill of an entrepreneur is to wonder, to ask what if?
Unfortunately that can lead to self-delusion. And self-delusion can easily be the your downfall, if you don’t think through your challenges thoroughly enough. In addition to speed, launching a business successfully requires significant self-honesty, such as truthful tracking of your costs and assumptions, in order to evaluate your ideas accurately.
To be clear, an assumption is just a statement of opinion about the occurrence of an event