From Oil to Green Economy

By Simone Malacrida

This book, the first in an energy trilogy, stems from the need to reconcile, in a single structured writing, the different relationships that energy has to society, politics, economics, the environment and technology by presenting a wide-ranging panorama both in the analysis of each individual energy source and in the examination of global and local players. Free of ideological bias, it is characterized as a picture of the current situation to understand the future evolution of energy and society and to confront the inherent theme of complexity.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Simone Malacrida
• Release date: Dec 26, 2022
• ISBN: 9798215734025

Simone Malacrida

Simone Malacrida (1977) Ha lavorato nel settore della ricerca (ottica e nanotecnologie) e, in seguito, in quello industriale-impiantistico, in particolare nel Power, nell'Oil&Gas e nelle infrastrutture. E' interessato a problematiche finanziarie ed energetiche. Ha pubblicato un primo ciclo di 21 libri principali (10 divulgativi e didattici e 11 romanzi) + 91 manuali didattici derivati. Un secondo ciclo, sempre di 21 libri, è in corso di elaborazione e sviluppo.

Book preview

INTRODUCTION

In the literature there are thousands of books and publications concerning energy issues and resources and there are just as many about the world of energy research both for the theoretical and basic one and for the applied and industrial one. Each of these publications generally has different purposes and is aimed at different segments of the public, from collective disclosure to writings dedicated only to a small number of professionals. Despite the vast diffusion of analysis and elaboration of these topics, it is not usual to find a single structured text that contextually addresses the relationships between energy, research, geopolitics and the economy, a book that presents in a more extensive way, compared to a technical report, the reciprocal influences between these worlds, a discussion which, as it was conceived, is aimed, in a completely versatile way, both at the general public and at the specialists of the various sectors presented.

Usually, it is preferable to consider only one perspective angle, writing texts that argue about some energy sources, such as oil or nuclear energy or some link between energy and other issues, such as the environment or the economy.

What characterizes this writing is instead the exact opposite: the idea of a journey into the energy planet and therefore of a single platform so integrated and connected, as to make every single point of view inseparable.

In unfolding the topics of this book, the fundamental role that research plays in the main decisions of the energy question will be highlighted, going to influence the uses of every source and resource of energy, the resulting economic and geopolitical model and the relationships in general with society, culture and the environment. At the same time, it will be seen how the very use of energy sources influences research or how geopolitical balances and economic models intervene as fundamental parameters. One of the main conclusions will be that of a non-correlation between cause and effect, as every single subject becomes cause and effect at the same time.

On the other hand, one wonders why energy is considered a fundamental lever for profoundly and substantially changing the very rules at the basis of our daily life. If we think more deeply, energy is the basis of life itself. Without the energy coming from the Sun, life on this planet, the alternation of the seasons, the water cycle, agriculture and livestock would not be possible. Furthermore, every living thing, from bacteria to plants to animals to humans is made up of cells that need energy to carry out their activities. Finally, every human activity has been regulated and marked by energy since prehistoric times.

The energy theme is therefore, in itself, i.e. by its very nature, pervasive and totally intertwined with our society; you will have the clear certainty of this aspect, going into the path proposed below. Furthermore, speaking of energy, it is not possible to isolate a single point of view, it is unthinkable to look at the whole matter from a single perspective angle. All this strongly derives from the very essence of the energy question which is fully revealed in its intrinsic complexity, a theme which will be taken up several times throughout the book and which will find its own explanation only at the end of the same.

Dealing with the energy issue by forgetting some parts is literally betraying the soul of energy and, given that this book focuses precisely on a totally energetic planet, this hypothesis will not be taken into consideration.

Complexity and capillary diffusion are two different manifestations of the more general energy phenomenon which, precisely as such, involves all aspects of society and life and which has therefore increasingly become the central theme and the pivot around which to implement some decisions strategic for our future.

Consequently, the purpose of this essay will not be limited only to probing the relationship between energy and research, but will involve wider areas, making it clear how the energy question is the nodal point on which world public opinion, universities, businesses , individual states and supranational bodies will have to confront each other to establish the future of the planet and of our species, evaluating all the possible benefits and potential risks. Such a broad perspective constitutes a very compelling and arduous challenge, but it is certainly within the reach of the conscience and skills acquired by modern man at the dawn of this twenty-first century, above all if we think that a vital concept such as the ch'i defined precisely as that flow of energy that pervades the universe and every single human being, capable of giving a direction and a complete sense to the unfolding of daily actions.

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The structure of the book is deliberately centered following the pattern and logic set out above, in a paradigm of reciprocal relationships depicting both the author's forma mentis and the main thought that will return in several pages of the book, the idea of a single interconnection among the various elements that have been enumerated above.

All these aspects are so closely linked as to leave no room for a particular perspective vision, but it becomes necessary to incorporate them into a single conception of the whole. For these reasons, it is necessary to immediately reveal the supporting columns of this structure at the beginning, to allow a glimpse of the main concepts that are the foundation of these columns and to understand the architecture above the individual chapters and paragraphs.

The first part of the book focuses on the technical and numerical aspects of the energy issue, highlighting all the energy resources used with their respective percentages, the main producing and consuming countries, the trend of reserves and the major uses of all this enormous energy flow. This part has the express purpose of putting the numerical evidence on paper, debunking some artificially constructed myths or some deeply rooted beliefs even among insiders, while providing precise and clear indications on the energy future, without however interpreting these data in terms of ideological that is, in support of pre-established theses.

Those who look between the lines, easy as they are superfluous, will be disappointed for labels, as the book was not written to support anti-nuclear or pro-nuclear, anti-environmental or pro-environmentalist, anti-oil or pro-oil ideas and so on. The firm belief is that the energy issue is too serious and fundamental to allow prejudgments to prevail.

On the other hand, incontrovertible data regarding each individual energy source will not be concealed, without falling into the pro or against scheme.

To facilitate the understanding and reading of the numbers relating to energy, the language used will be mostly aseptic and impartial, as befits a technical compendium supporting the tables, graphs and percentages presented.

As an authentic counterpart to this first section, the second part focuses on the relationship between energy and the various aspects of society, from politics to the economy, from daily life to the environmental ecosystem. In an antithetical way to what was done previously, the macro connections between increasingly vast topics that involve every aspect of our society will be taken into consideration. As an obvious consequence, even the style and language will have to undergo a radical change since the underlying topic is no longer connected to numerical data, but to reciprocal influences and relationships.

The third and final part will highlight the fact that the deep link between energy and research is not dependent on a single energy source; moreover, the identification of some pre-eminent players in the energy panorama and the brief proposals to be implemented at the various institutional levels will complete the picture.

As will often be noted, the main idea of this book lies in the belief that each of the three parts presented is neither independent nor complete when taken by itself. It is not possible to reduce the energy question to numbers alone, it is unthinkable to illustrate only the relationships between energy and society, because the resulting description would be incomplete, if one chooses a particular point of view. On the other hand, the exposition and treatment of the third part would be completely devoid of context and of an adequate framework if it does not have the first two sections. What distinguishes this paper from a simple position paper on energy research is precisely the presence of this dual context of introduction and background to the issues concerning the relationship between energy and research.

In any case, the treatment presented in any paragraph does not have the ambition and presumption of being exhaustive, complete and derived from first principles and, for this reason, there is a vast bibliography to refer to for each specific topic covered and for any further information on the matter.

After this brief overview, some fixed points and axes of investigation on which the book will build its structure should be proposed, as a sort of handbook and handbook for reading.

-  The historic and still prominent role of fossil fuels on global energy numbers, with particular attention to the handover that will take place in the next few years between oil and natural gas.

-  The need for a diversification of sources in a balanced energy mix, especially in relation to the potential of renewable energies.

-  The main sectors of energy use and the connections with the no longer postponeable themes of energy efficiency and environmental impact.

-  The future developments of the energy sector in the first half of this century, considering a model of gradual evolution or a possible energy revolution.

-  The problem of the duration of energy reserves, the connection with geopolitics and the consequent development models adopted.

-  The economic role of energy both in quantitative and qualitative terms.

-  The relationships between the energy sector, society, history and the global environment, with a general view of sustainable development.

-  The fundamental role of energy research for the economic, social, cultural and environmental future and the possible strands of basic interest.

-  The main players in the energy question and their respective roles.

-  The energy complexity and the proposals to be adopted at the various organizational and social levels.

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Therefore, this book is characterized not by a detailed historical study of energy and energy resources, nor by an a posteriori understanding of the problems that emerged in the past, but rather by an attempt to define what will be the energetic future of the species Homo Sapiens living on the planet. planet Earth, at least for the first half of this century.

An energy future which, as we will see, is much more uncertain than in the past with perhaps only one fundamental certainty: the energy of the distant future (with this adjective we mean a fairly long period of time starting from today, from 60 years su) will not be a fossil energy, therefore the 80% of the energy that we use today through these energy sources will have to be replaced with other forms.

In fact, even when historical data will be presented, this will have the main purpose of comparing the past situation with the present one in order to understand the evolution that has taken place during the intervening period and to try to foresee possible future developments with all the probable consequences related. As such, this book is conceived on and for the energy future and has been elaborated taking into account all the aspects previously exposed, precisely to fully take charge of the specific complex relationships of the energy question.

The data taken into consideration refer to 2008, considered as a watershed for various reasons. First, it falls exactly 35 years after 1973, the year of the first oil crisis. Furthermore, the financial and industrial crisis that still pervades the world took place in 2008. It can be said that what will emerge from these four years will be a new vision and conception of society and energy and therefore we will have to reposition ourselves from a different point of view. 2008 is therefore a turning point for understanding the picture of the world of yesterday and for understanding which paths will be taken in the future. The facts and events of recent years, from accidents to oil platforms and nuclear plants to social revolutions in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, are changing the landscape towards a new scenario.

All these considerations will be presented with a continuous change of perspective in the course of the chapters and paragraphs, but keeping in mind the complementary and synergistic scenario between energy and research.

Finally, a brief mention of the title. Precisely because of how this book was conceived, the title lends itself to a double interpretation. First, the completeness from the point of view of the sources. As has been said, this book is not a writing on a particular energy source, but embraces them all, from the fossil source still predominant today (oil) to renewable energies, passing through nuclear power and coal. Each energy source then connects to the various aspects of society (politics, economy, history, environment) and research, allowing a matrix reading, following either the three parts into which the writing is divided or each individual energy source.

In the same way, the title summarizes the idea of the typical dynamism of the social and energy transition we are witnessing and which will most likely become more and more accentuated in the near future. Therefore, there is a double meaning in the title, of a temporal nature linked to the energy future and of a cognitive nature linked to the vastness of the energy topic.

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However, the real heart of the energy question consists in the answer to the following question, very direct and therefore, in itself, indiscreet and uncomfortable: which energy for the future?

Yes, but what future? If the distant future will be renewable and green, how to manage this transition that could last even this whole century?

Beyond any a priori idea and judgment that each of us possesses thanks to our cultural background and work and social role, this book has the slight presumption of providing, in addition to what we already know, some clear and distinct elements to provide to complete an overall vision of energy and to be able to respond, in an ever more complete way, to the continuous challenges that the above question obliges us to consider.

PARTE ONE

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ENERGY AND ITS NUMBERS

CHAPTER 1

NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

This first chapter will analyze the non-renewable energy sources used in a significant way by man, therefore those sources that depend on a specific material that is extracted from the earth's soil. Firstly, an overview will be given of the fossil energy sources which still constitute the largest energy source used by humanity, starting with oil and natural gas, ending with coal and wood; furthermore, data relating to nuclear energy deriving from uranium fission (also a mineral extracted and therefore non-renewable) will be presented. For those who think that humanity is about to abandon these resources today, it is enough to note that the share of non-renewable energy sources has actually increased in the last 35 years, passing from 86.5% to 87% of all the energy produced; only by separating the part relating to nuclear power can we see a percentage (but not absolute) decline in fossil fuels.

For each energy source, the data relating to the total energy produced and the total installed power at world, European and Italian level will be presented, also briefly introducing the main applications relating to the particular type of energy source. Furthermore, we will proceed to present the data relating to consumption and production divided by area and by historical evolution, giving an overview of production costs, price evolution and the intrinsic specificity of each individual energy source.

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Petrolium

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Oil was the decisive energy resource for the second industrial revolution, the one that took place during the first decades of the twentieth century. One of the many reasons for the success of this energy source is due to the fact that it is extremely compact; a liquid source, easily extractable and quite abundant, which contains in itself a high calorific value (which is the maximum amount of heat that can be obtained from the stoichiometric combustion of a certain mass of combustible substance) and therefore very flexible in use for modern technologies. The evolution of the panorama and supply of energy sources over the last 35 years has caused the percentage of oil in total primary energy to drop from 45% to 34% worldwide; however, considering that the same has substantially doubled - on an annual level from 6,000 Mtoe to about 12,000, where 1 Mtoe (or Mtoe using the acronym in Italian) corresponds to the energy of one million tons of oil equivalent, i.e. to 11.63 TWh - primary energy from oil therefore underwent a 52% increase from 2,700 to 4,100 Mtoe per year. Europe needs an annual primary energy of about 2,000 Mtoe and Italy about 200 Mtoe with a total percentage due to oil of 41% and 43% respectively, therefore above the world average. The increase in total primary energy and the percentage decrease in the weight of oil is easily verifiable visually by observing figure 1 which represents the world's total primary energy by energy source during the twentieth century. On the other hand, as a simple fuel, the percentage of oil has dropped in the last 35 years from 53% to 41% worldwide.

As regards the sectors of use, oil is fundamental in the transport sector, in which the total energy comes from oil sources for a percentage that varies between 96% and 97% for almost all the countries in the world. In fact, the use of petroleum is the basis of the internal combustion engines that drive cars, trucks, buses, ships and planes. In the industrial, tertiary and residential sectors, petroleum products cover 27% of Italy's total energy needs, around 26% of Europe's and 28% worldwide. As far as the production of electricity using oil is concerned, globally the percentage has literally collapsed from 25% in 1973 to the current 7%, with Europe standing at only 4% and Italy at 11%.

Figure 1: World primary energy by energy source during the twentieth century [42].

In the last 35 years, the annual world oil production has increased from 800 a2'4,000 million tons and the percentage share of this production attributable to the countries of the Middle East has decreased from 37% to 31%, mainly in favor of Asian, African and Latin American. To date, there has been an absolute maximum of production during 2008 of about 90 million barrels per day (one barrel of oil is just over 158 litri). At present, the major world producers are shown in table 1. As is known, Italy does not have a significant oil production (so much so that we import 94% of the national requirement) and neither does Europe except forNorge.

Table 1: Major world oil producers (base year, 2008) [38].

In terms of consumption, the ranking is led by the United States which holds 25% on a global scale followed by China which has 10% and which is on the rise