Futurescan 2021–2026: Health Care Trends and Implications

By Society for Health Care Strategy & Market Development Society for Health Care Strategy & Market Development

This highly respected annual guide will help hospital and health system leaders prepare themselves and their organizations for the future. An essential tool for strategic planning, Futurescan 2021–2026 presents articles highlighting the insights of thought leaders on eight key trends and how they are being affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and other forces of change in healthcare: Introduction: Transforming Health Care While Responding to a PandemicConsolidation: A Network Response to the COVID-19 PandemicSocial Determinants: Why Social Health Is as Important as Physical and Mental HealthSocietal Violence: Health Care Organizations' Role in Combating Societal ViolenceConsumerism: Navigating the New Age of Consumerism After COVID-19Finance: Value-Driven Outcomes: Where Quality Meets Cost EfficiencyCulture Change: Creating a Culture of Disruption, Change and Innovation Technology: Artificial Intelligence: Tools for Transforming CareInvestment: The Role of Private Equity in Health Car

• Language: English
• Publisher: HAP Book
• Release date: Aug 16, 2022
• ISBN: 9781640553842

Book preview

INTRODUCTION

Transforming Health Care While Responding to a Pandemic

by Ian Morrison, Ph.D.

These are unprecedented times in health care. COVID-19 has shocked the world politically, economically and clinically. Beyond the deaths and suffering of patients and families directly affected by the virus are the disastrous effects on the economy and the medical system.

The surge of cases stressed capacity and staff, the elective shutdown challenged provider finances, the ravaged economy affected employment and health coverage, and the fiscal response will mean massive deficits at the federal and state levels for the foreseeable future. Despite the headwinds of the pandemic, health care leaders rose to the challenges they face in their communities with extraordinary resilience and creativity.

Notably, the crisis has been overlaid on the ongoing forces already transforming the field: consumerization, digital health, consolidation, social determinants, value-based care and innovation fueled by new technologies and new sources of investment.

In this edition of Futurescan, we have assembled an impressive group of subject matter experts (SMEs) – all thought leaders in their field – who provide perceptive insights into these critical trends and how they are being influenced by the pandemic.

Doctors examining patients in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

Consolidation

For the past 10 years, mergers and acquisitions have been a key strategy for hospitals and health systems seeking to expand access, achieve cost efficiencies and create greater value. Although critics point to the potential negative effects of large networks having too much market power, during a pandemic the benefits of consolidation are magnified exponentially by the critical mass of patients needing intensive services.

Such was the case in 2020 when New Jersey’s biggest health system became the epicenter for treating COVID-19 patients in that state. Hackensack Meridian Health – formed from the merger of Hackensack University Health Network and Meridian Health – was able to pivot wherever and whenever necessary to manage the huge influx of patients treated in 2020 when the first phase of the pandemic was at its worst. As a result of the merger, CEO Robert C. Garrett, FACHE, says, the health system had multiple hospitals at its disposal and could transfer patients to less affected medical centers where more beds were available.

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About the Subject Matter Expert

Ian Morrison, Ph.D., is an author, consultant and futurist. He received an undergraduate degree from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland; a graduate degree from the University of Newcastle upon Tyne, England; and an interdisciplinary doctorate in urban studies from the University of British Columbia, Canada. He is the author of several books, including the best-selling The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change. Morrison is the former president of the Institute for the Future and a founding partner of Strategic Health Perspectives, a forecasting service for clients in the health care industry.

To be prepared for future public health emergencies, Garrett recommends that leaders consider the following:

Strategic mergers and acquisitions can help organizations increase scalability, expand availability of clinicians, broaden medical expertise and more effectively manage the supply chain.

Network integration can offer access to specialized clinical expertise and the resources needed to enlarge the enterprise’s scope of services.

Emergency response plans must be updated and revised.

Patients may remain reluctant to seek medical care for quite some time. Hospitals and health systems will need to reassure the public by enhancing safety for patients, team members, physicians and visitors.

Social Determinants

Bechara Choucair, M.D., has devoted his career to addressing the social factors that support good health. He leads Kaiser Permanente’s initiatives in eight states to help people secure stable housing, healthy food, reliable transportation and social support.

The coronavirus has had a devastating effect on people of every color, creed and circumstance in the United States and around the world. As the virus spread, it also exposed systemic cracks in the social needs and public health infrastructure of communities. Access to safe housing, economic stability, nutritious food and reliable transportation have often been out of reach for disadvantaged populations hit hardest by the pandemic. Data on hospitalization rates underscore the gravity of the situation. As of mid-2020:

Non-Hispanic American Indian or Native Alaskan people had a rate approximately five times that of non-Hispanic white people.

Non-Hispanic Black people had a rate approximately five times that of non-Hispanic white people.

Hispanic or Latino people had a rate approximately four times that of non-Hispanic white people.

The need for equity in health, human and social services has never been more apparent, observes Choucair. Health disparities result in billions of additive medical costs each year. Health care organizations are beginning to respond in ways that not only ameliorate social inequities but also result in positive financial outcomes.

A close-up of fingers scrolling a mobile phone near a keyboard.

Societal Violence

As the first line of treatment for the victims of violent crime, hospitals have long been a critical transition point for patients recovering from life-threatening injuries. A growing number of providers are concluding, however, that a passive approach to delivering episodic medical care is no longer sufficient or tolerable. Interpersonal violence is a major public health concern in the United States, says Michael Levas, M.D., assistant medical director of Project Ujima at Children’s Wisconsin Health System. Levas has been an early leader in championing hospital violence intervention programs (HVIPs) to prevent physical assault and murder in local communities.

For many reasons, Levas believes hospitals are uniquely positioned to be proactive in helping to end the cycle of violence, rather than being just reactive. Administrators and clinical staff have firsthand knowledge of the downstream economic, physical and social impacts of violence. With sophisticated database capabilities that make analyzing, trending and sharing information on assaults a turnkey process, hospitals are also a vital link in community violence prevention. For those who want to be more engaged in reducing violence and mitigating its societal costs, HVIPs have become an important model for generating best practices.

Levas asserts that hospitals can play a critical role in ensuring that their communities are safe and more stable places to live. Violence prevention is simply the right thing to do, he says. The alternative – doing nothing – actually perpetuates the cycle and puts everyone at risk.

Consumerism

Never has there been a time in modern history when patients in America have had to make so many conscious, proactive decisions about their health. Some of the newest options for medical care are found not in hospitals or a physician’s office, but rather in the local retail storefront and via internet-linked platforms at home and on the go. In a society where patients have become primary payers and Amazon-primed to expect transparency and excellent customer experience, many health care services are morphing into shoppable commodities.

Doctors and nurses conversing together.

The latest trends in consumerism are the main reason that health economist and author Jane Sarasohn-Kahn believes hospitals and health systems need to rethink their current models of delivering care and