Is Cpec Economic Corridor or a Strategic Game Plan?

By Dr Shabir Choudhry

CPEC is no doubt a big project with many dimensions and many targets. It is hailed as a game changer. However, debate still goes on in Pakistan and around the globe, about whose favor the game will change. As a weak partner in any game, trade or pact does not dictate terms or win the game.

• Language: English
• Publisher: AuthorHouse UK
• Release date: Jun 16, 2017
• ISBN: 9781524681678

Dr Shabir Choudhry

DR SHABIR CHOUDHRY is a renowned Kashmiri intellectual, writer, scholar and a senior leader of United Kashmir Peoples National Party. Throughout his adult life, he has championed the cause of united and independent Jammu and Kashmir with secular and liberal society. He has courageously spoken for the rights of minorities and oppressed people, and has been a victim of Pakistani establishment.

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© 2017 Dr Shabir Choudhry. All rights reserved.

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Published by AuthorHouse 07/14/2017

ISBN: 978-1-5246-8168-5 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-5246-8167-8 (e)

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CONTENTS

Dedication

Preface

1. Introduction

2. China and the New World Order

3. CPEC, Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani economy.

4. CPEC and Balochistan

5. Jammu and Kashmir dispute and the CPEC

6. Why Pakistanis are against the CPEC, Dr Shabir Choudhry

7. Is CPEC Marshall Plan of South Asia?

8. Conspiracy theories and the CPEC

9. Our right to development, CPEC and Pakistan

10. CPEC and American interests

11. Impact of CPEC on domestic products of Pakistan

12. Can CPEC land Pakistan in hot water? Dr Shabir Choudhry

13. CPEC and Dollars are more important than Interest of Muslims

14. CPEC is a classical googly can turn either way, Dr Shabir Choudhry

15. CPEC is not a holy cow

16. CPEC should also benefit Gilgit Baltistan and not exploit our resources

17. How China Pakistan Economic Corridor will affect people of former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir?

18. Views of Junaid Qureshi, Director European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), Amsterdam

19. Views of Mohammad Ishaq khan, Executive Director, South Asian Centre for Peace Democracy and Development, (NGO) Belgium

20. Appendixes

DEDICATION

This book is dedicated to brave sons of soil who spoke out against foreign occupation and exploitation; and who courageously challenged the imperialist aims of China and Pakistan to usurp Gilgit Baltistan under the garb of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tragedy is not that we are occupied by three countries, in my view, the bigger tragedy is that many of us don’t even realise that we are occupied.

Dr Shabir Choudhry

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PREFACE

Pakistani state, intelligence services, some Pakistani leaders and blind followers of leaders are presenting the China Pakistan Economic Corridor as a holy cow which must be respected if not worshiped. No one is allowed to criticise or oppose the CPEC. Those who dare to criticise it are suffering. Some are facing sedition charges and others were abducted, punished and dumped. Some others are threatened, harassed and intimidated.

I am also in the list of those victims who are suffering at the hands of Pakistani secret agencies. Despite that, I have decided to take a lead and write a book on the CPEC. My colleagues and I was the first one to arrange an international conference in London to discuss pros and cons of the CPEC in September 2015. I continued with my campaign to present some bitter facts before the people that they know what their leaders are doing to them; and how they are jeopardising national interests of Pakistan and endangering future of the entire region.

Writing on a topic that is disliked by the army, and other holy cows with religious cap on is too dangerous in Pakistan. One has to pay a big price for this. I have also paid a price for speaking out against wrong doings in Pakistan and in Jammu and Kashmir State; and writing on the topics which are considered taboo in Pakistan, and in areas controlled or influenced by them.

People are so frightened or mentally conditioned that they dare not even like something on face book because they think the agencies could be monitoring this; and they have to land in Pakistan to go to so called Azad Kashmir. One friend was going to so called Azad Kashmir, and came to visit me. During normal discussion, he asked me if I wanted to send something. I replied, can you take a copy of my new book, published from America and give it to Saeed Asad in Mirpur.

He categorically refused by saying that I could be in trouble, if someone saw this book at Islamabad airport. I was so hurt to hear this. People are so afraid of the Pakistani agencies. How can you ask these people to stand up for their rights? Mental slaves can never achieve freedom, and in my opinion, they do not deserve it.

The following example will also help readers to understand that people of Pakistan, so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan live in a police state, where there every activity is monitored. Because the CPEC is a new topic, I thought it will be good to include views of some thinking people of Jammu and Kashmir, which included a few Pakistanis. I selected 22 brave and thinking people, and sent them the following questions:

1. How CPEC will affect legal status of Gilgit Baltistan?

2. If it affects the legal status of Gilgit Baltistan, what will be its impact on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute?

3. How is India likely to react to this?

4. Will it affect demography of Gilgit Baltistan?

5. Will there be any environment changes?

6. What will be social, political and cultural impact on people of Gilgit Baltistan?

7. Will people of this region be better off economically?

8. How will the CPEC affect Pakistani Occupied Jammu and Kashmir?

Out of 22 people, only two returned with their contributions on the topic. Some of the remaining promised more than once, but did not send anything. May be some of them were busy; but it is also possible that some of them feared reprisals from the Pakistani agencies; and they did not want to be branded anti Pakistan, anti CPEC and Indian agent or agent of some other country.

Fear factor in citizens of Jammu and Kashmir, especially among people of so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan is so strong that they want to continue their lives with the same conditions. If they get a few more concession they will be grateful to Islamabad, even if they don’t, they will continue to sing laurels for them.

For a lot of people of Jammu and Kashmir, serving interests of the Pakistani establishment or being an agent of ISI is a matter of pride. However, some of them also have close links with New Delhi; and they enjoy eating ‘cream’ and enjoy perks they offer. But they won’t acknowledge this, because in their view contacts with India has stigma attached.

Whether Pakistani government, their agencies and foot soldiers like it or dislike it, I don’t care. I have worked hard and have produced a book on impact of the CPEC; and have also discussed its hidden agenda. I wanted to provide information that people can see what may happen to them in future. I did not write to annoy anyone, or please anyone. That is not a role of a writer. In my opinion, someone who writes to please or annoy others is not a true writer. A writer should speak his mind, provide facts and discuss issues which may not be that popular with the authorities and the people.

I hope there will be some people in Pakistan and in South Asia who will appreciate that I have provided a valuable information to them; and have cautioned them about problems which they may encounter in future. Speaking truth has never been easy. Those who have spoken truth which the ruling elite did not like have always suffered.

I want to thank my friends and my family for always supporting me, despite all the nefarious propaganda against me. I hope that they will continue to support me because I need that. I am doing my jihad against forces of extremism, terrorism, intolerance and hatred; and God willing, this jihad will continue.

Dr Shabir Choudhry

Chairman, South Asia Watch, London.

15 June 2017

1. INTRODUCTION

What Baloch leaders say on the CPEC

Chinese presence in Pakistan and in parts of disputed Jammu and Kashmir under the control of Pakistan is a great cause of concern not only to the local people but also to those who are concerned about peace and stability of the region and future ambitions of China in this region.

The CPEC will end in Gwadar in Balochistan; but it is sad to note that people of Balochistan have very serious reservations about this project which, according to them, is designed to exploit natural resources of Balochistan. Balochistan National Party (BNP) Chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal has claimed that Punjab is to reap CPEC benefits.

While speaking to around 16,000 people at the Shaheed Mir Asghar Khan Mengal football stadium, Sardar Akhtar Mengal who was once a Chief Minister of Balochistan he said:

"I have never opposed any development but again I would clarify that our objective and mission is wide and clear that any development which turns the Baloch people into a minority will be opposed with full strength. Gwadar is being developed for outsiders and people of the province will not be even allowed to enter the port city…I have talked about these apprehensions some 20 years ago that Gwadar is being developed not for the Baloch people but for Punjab."

He further said, we will protect dignity and sanctity of the land at all costs; and that Poverty, backwardness and low literacy will not be our fate. Our land is rich in natural resources and these resources will be utilised to improve the life of the common people here.¹

Sardar Akhtar Mengal is a senior Pakistani politician; and he has served Pakistan as the Chief Minister of troubled province of Balochistan. What he says may not be liked by the army establishment and some politicians, but his sentiments are shared by the common people of Balochistan who have suffered since 1947.

Peace in Balochistan and in Gwadar is absolutely essential for the CPEC projects and for its smooth operations. Bitter fact, however, is that many people in Balochistan are up in arms against Pakistan and the CPEC, because they think it will exploit their resources and enable Pakistan to crush them with help of China.

Khan of Kalat Mir Suleman Dawood, is a son of Khan of Kalat, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan. After death of his father in 1979, Mir Suleman Dawood assumed the hereditary title of Khan of Kalat. Because of very strong differences with the government of Pakistan, especially after the Pakistan army murdered Sardar Akbar Bugti in 2006; he lives in Britain. However, his views are very much respected in Balochistan and some other places. In a recent statement, published on 27 May 2017, Khan of Kalat said:

‘The China-pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an existential threat to the Baloch nation and its people; and threatens India as well as American interests in the region’. He said the CPEC was a ‘Chinese military project’, and ‘the United States and the Indian government to support an independent Balochistan and called on Pakistan to stop the genocide of Balochs. He said only independent Balochistan can help remove the threat of war to India from its western border’.²

Khan of Kalat claims that Balochistan was an independent State, and was occupied by force. The Balochs will never stop pursuing the case of illegal occupation and human rights violations in Balochistan. The situation in Balochistan is deteriorating. Pakistan’s rule over Balochistan has never been legitimate, it has no moral authority and now it has lost control over Balochistan. The Indian, American, Afghan, Arab states and others should realize that the future is Balochistan.³

He claimed more than 25,000 Baloch people are missing, and more than million are forced to leave their homes. Mir Suleman said: ‘Mass graves have been found in Khuzdar Baluchistan and other places, there are other locations which we believe need to be investigated by the international institutions…The CPEC project is meant to fulfil the Chinese expansionist ambitions in the region’.⁴

Concern of Some European MPS

Mr. Alberto Cirio Member of the European Parliament said that:

‘China has increased their military presence in Pakistan Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan under the pretext of ensuring safety to their workers. He also mentioned that the Chinese army has started to create divisions among the Shia and Sunnis in the region, which is causing a direct threat to the region and not only the locals. Mr. Cirio mentioned that the presence of the Chinese army in the region is a threat to the stability of the region and questioned by Pakistan allowed Chinese army when it always opposed the presence of the Western Allied Forced in the region. He also mentioned that there should be a mechanism setup to investigate the adverse effects of the presence of the Chinese army in the Pakistan Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan’.⁵

Mr. Ryszard Czarnecki, Vice President European Parliament, in a Conference hosted in the European Parliament with the title of CHINA IN PAKISTAN: GROWING HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS said:

‘China is engaged in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan in construction ranging from dams, highways and ports. He spoke that it has come to notice that there is a lot of resentment among locals in the region of Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir over the negative environmental impact and the utter disregard for environmental safety norms by the Chinese infrastructure developers. Chinese construction projects literally trash the environment’.⁶

Pakistan-China relations, is often referred as ‘higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the ocean and sweeter than the honey’. I agree countries need friends and allies to survive in this competitive world, but is this friendship between the people of both countries or is it between the ruling elite which wants to further enrich themselves.

It must be remembered that China is not investing so many billions because they are in love with people of Pakistan; and they want to eradicate poverty and hunger from Pakistan. Despite being the second largest economy, in China there is still a lot of poverty and hunger. Some areas are still underdeveloped and people live below the poverty line.

What a Pakistani thinker Lal Khan says

A Pakistani thinker and a writer, Lal Khan writes on situation of China and the Chinese designs:

‘In spite of the hue and cry of the bourgeois media about capitalist counter-revolution ‘lifting millions out of poverty’, the reality is far starker. According to World Bank statistics, 67.8% of the population (902 million) lives on less than $5 a day. China accounts for a record one-fifth (370) of all billionaires in the world, rising from 17.6 per cent in 2014, the China Rich List 2015, compiled by the US business magazine Forbes, said. The legislature of the world’s last major communist country is almost certainly the wealthiest in the world, the top rich list names 83 dollar billionaires among Chinese communist party’s, National Peoples Congress. Meanwhile, in America there is not a single billionaire in the House of Representatives or the Senate, reported the Financial Times. The Communist Party of China is neither communist nor a party but a dragon of the upstart elite that sucks the blood of the workers in China and across the world wherever they make their imperialist investments…Real unemployment is actually closer to 20 per cent despite false official figures. Some 274m rural migrant workers are almost entirely ignored by the job statistics.⁷

China suffered an economic shock when in 2008, its GDP dropped to 9.6%. The previous year GDP was 14.2%. In 1914, the Chinese economy suffered its lowest economic growth since 1990. The Financial Times, London reported that out of thirty-one Provinces, thirty failed to achieve their growth targets. The one which achieved its economic growth target was Tibet, which is China’s smallest regional economy. This sounded alarm bells to the policy makers in Beijing and they decided to embark on mega economic projects to support their declining industry.

The Chinese agenda and plan will seriously hurt the Pakistani industry in so many ways. The Pakistani exports will decline and factories will close down. One can understand that the Chinese investment will create some jobs; but one doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that when exports decline and factories close down that will also result in unemployment.

It must also be understood that the Chinese are not even investing for some utopian ideals. Their purpose is to accumulate wealth and advance China’s agenda on the back of Pakistan. Those who invest money don’t do it for charitable purposes. Interest of Pakistan is not on top of the Chinese agenda. In pursuance of excessive profits and its strategic hegemonic designs in the region, China will invest this colossal amount, and Pakistan, as a country, may get some trivial financial benefits.

However, Pakistan may benefit from Chinese military presence, in the sense that, China will help Pakistan to crush any opposition to Islamabad’s rule. Also, the Chinese presence can help Pakistan to protect Gwadar; and discourage India and other hostile countries from any military adventures.

Under guise of the CPEC, China will control strategically and commercially important Gwadar. It will present China with new commercial, business and military opportunities; and it will become a Chines navy post in future, which will help Beijing to increase its influence in the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. China will use natural resources of Gilgit Baltistan and Balochistan to advance its idea of the New World Order.

China will also help to stabilise Afghanistan, as that and control of Gilgit Baltistan, Balochistan and presence of the Chinese military and secret agencies in various parts of Pakistan will help China to strike at the supply of Mujahidin to its restive Xinjiang province. China’s strategy is to negotiate and engage with the Taliban leadership and play a more proactive role in Afghanistan for these very economic and commercial interests. China’s main interest is to use or rent the Pakistan military machine for these hegemonic purposes.

The Pakistan writer, Lal Khan asserts:

‘To expect such a greedy ruling clique to alleviate poverty in Pakistan through investment is absurd to say the least. This friendship gimmickry is to mock and deceive the ordinary people. The Pakistani ruling class is no less mean and reactionary. Power is only traded and bought for more loot and plunder. Lenin wrote in his epic work, Imperialism the Highest stage of Capitalism, that a capitalist country acquires an imperialist role when it begins to export capital. China is the largest exporter of capital in the world. It is the biggest investor in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Its evil designs on Baluchistan and Pakistan are the same as those of the American and other, world and regional imperialist states’.⁸

Is hidden agenda not so much hidden now?

After Pakistani newspaper Dawn’s detailed report on the CPEC, based on which one can write a book, it becomes clear that the CPEC has a big hidden agenda. In view of many