Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets. November 2020

By Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

As it was projected earlier in the year, while most markets were braced for a major global economic downturn, the food sector, including markets for bananas and tropical fruits, continued to display more resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic than other sectors.

This report provides supply and demand forecasts for basic foodstuffs, fish and fishery products along with price analysis, policy information and a preliminary assessment of the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade in bananas and tropical fruits. The report’s special feature reviews recent trends in food imports bills and export earnings.

Food Outlook is published by the Markets and Trade Division of FAO as part of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). It is a biannual publication (November and June) focusing on developments in global food markets. Food Outlook maintains a close synergy with another major GIEWS publication, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, especially with regard to the coverage of cereals.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
• Release date: Dec 15, 2020
• ISBN: 9789251336663

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

An intergovernmental organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has 194 Member Nations, two associate members and one member organization, the European Union. Its employees come from various cultural backgrounds and are experts in the multiple fields of activity FAO engages in. FAO’s staff capacity allows it to support improved governance inter alia, generate, develop and adapt existing tools and guidelines and provide targeted governance support as a resource to country and regional level FAO offices. Headquartered in Rome, Italy, FAO is present in over 130 countries.Founded in 1945, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO provides a neutral forum where all nations meet as equals to negotiate agreements and debate policy. The Organization publishes authoritative publications on agriculture, fisheries, forestry and nutrition.

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WHEAT

The global wheat supply and demand balance is expected to tighten in 2020/21, evidenced by much firmer international prices compared with the same period last year. The current forecast for world wheat production in 2020 stands marginally above the 2019 level and just short of the 2016 record output. Higher forecasts in several countries, especially Australia, the Russian Federation and India, will likely outweigh smaller crops expected in Argentina, Ukraine, the United States of America (USA) and, most notably, the European Union (EU).

Total wheat utilization is forecast to rise slightly in 2020/21, resting almost entirely on increases in food use, led by Asia and Africa. The reduced price competiveness of wheat relative to other cereals is expected to keep feed and industrial uses of wheat in 2020/21 close to their 2019/20 levels in most countries, except for China and India, where some increases are likely.

By the close of seasons in 2021, global wheat inventories are forecast to reach 281 million tonnes, up 1.9 percent from 2020. However, this increase is largely the result of a sharp rise in China’s stock levels to 139 million tonnes, accounting for nearly half of global stocks. Excluding China, global wheat inventories are anticipated to contract by 3.8 percent, weighed down by expected declines in several leading wheat exporters, particularly Argentina, the EU and the USA. Reflecting this development, the ratio of major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance (defined as domestic utilization plus exports) – a measure of global market availabilities – is expected to decline from 15.2 percent in 2019/20 to 14.5 percent in 2020/21, the lowest level since 2007/08.

World wheat trade in 2020/21 (July/June) is forecast to reach a new record of 184.5 million tonnes. Expected increased purchases by China, the EU, Egypt, Pakistan and Morocco are seen sustaining world trade in 2020/21, offsetting smaller imports currently projected for several countries, including Algeria, Kenya and Turkey. Regarding exporters, higher production volumes in Australia, Canada and the Russian Federation are expected to boost wheat shipments from those origins, more than compensating for likely export reductions from the EU and Ukraine.

For additional analyses and updates, see:

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

http://www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects

AMIS Market Monitor

http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

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COARSE GRAINS

The forecast for global coarse grains production in 2020 points to a 2.4 percent increase from 2019 to a record 1 478 millions tonnes. Maize production is seen to rise by 1.9 percent to an all-time high, pegged at 1 160 million tonnes, largely driven by expectations of strong production rebounds in the United States of America (USA) and South Africa, as well as record harvests in Argentina and Brazil. Barley output is also set to rise, while sorghum production is forecast to rebound from the decline in 2019.

Total coarse grain utilization is heading to a new peak in 2020/21, forecast at 2 745 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from 2019/20, mostly on predicted higher feed and other non-food uses. Feed use of maize is seen rising by 1.6 percent, boosted by anticipated strong demand in Argentina, Brazil and China. Global feed use of barley is expected to expand by 3.6 percent, while strong growth in sorghum feed use in China, driven by high domestic maize prices, is expected to push up global sorghum feed use by almost 16 percent. Forecast growth of other non-food uses of coarse grains mostly reflects brisker demand for starch and maize-based