Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets. November 2017

By Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

The world’s food import bill is rising despite large production and robust supply. The higher import bill is driven by increased international demand for most foodstuffs as well as higher freight rates. The livestock and dairy sectors are particularly dynamic. World output of oilseeds oils is expected to increase slightly this year after last year’s strong season. As well as providing detailed analyses of the production, trade and demand for major cereal and oilcrops, the Food Outlook updates trends for cassava, which has been one of the fastest-expanding staple crops at the global level and is the third most important source of calories in the tropics, after rice and maize. Tropical fruits are increasingly stars in global trade, with export volumes of mango, pineapple, avocado and papayas on course to achieve a total combined value of USD 10 billion this year, according to the Food Outlook.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
• Release date: Nov 28, 2017
• ISBN: 9789251300527

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

An intergovernmental organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has 194 Member Nations, two associate members and one member organization, the European Union. Its employees come from various cultural backgrounds and are experts in the multiple fields of activity FAO engages in. FAO’s staff capacity allows it to support improved governance inter alia, generate, develop and adapt existing tools and guidelines and provide targeted governance support as a resource to country and regional level FAO offices. Headquartered in Rome, Italy, FAO is present in over 130 countries.Founded in 1945, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO provides a neutral forum where all nations meet as equals to negotiate agreements and debate policy. The Organization publishes authoritative publications on agriculture, fisheries, forestry and nutrition.

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CEREALS

World cereal markets are likely to be comfortably balanced in 2017/18, with total supplies exceeding projected demand and inventories on the rise. Global cereal production in 2017 is forecast to surpass the 2016 peak by a small margin. Total production of coarse grains is set to reach a new record, with most of the expansion taking place in South America and Southern Africa. However, wheat production is forecast to decline slightly from last year in spite of an upward adjustment since October driven by a larger-than-earlier anticipated harvest in the Russian Federation. The decline in wheat production from 2016 mostly reflects a lower harvest in the United States, as well as a projected fall in Australia’s wheat crop after a record output in 2016. Global rice production in 2017 is expected to remain broadly stable.

World cereal utilization in 2017/18 is set to expand by 1 percent from the previous year. Overall, food consumption of cereals is forecast to grow by 1.3 percent and feed use by 0.4 percent, while industrial utilization is projected to rise by 1.2 percent. Based on the latest forecasts for cereal production and utilization, world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2018 are set to reach a new record level. This would result in the global cereal stock-to-use ratio remaining stable at a 15-year high of 27 percent, with the ratio for wheat up slightly and those for coarse grains and rice down marginally. World wheat inventories are currently pegged at an all-time high despite a downward revision since October. Global stocks of rice and coarse grains are also set to reach record levels. The increase in wheat and rice stocks largely reflects an anticipated accumulation of inventories in China, whereas for coarse grains, the expansion reflects higher end-of-season maize stocks in South America and the United States.

World trade in cereals in 2017/18 is forecast to remain close to the 2016/17 estimated volume, with an expected decline in wheat trade largely offset by larger shipments of maize, sorghum and rice. Overall, given the ample size of export supplies, competition among major exporters in 2017/18 is expected to remain stiff.

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WHEAT

Even though world wheat production in 2017 is forecast to fall below last year’s record level, wheat supplies in 2017/18 remain relatively large. Stocks are set to increase for the fifth consecutive season, reaching an all-time high. Trade is expected to contract, while prices, which still exceed last year’s levels, have remained under general downward pressure since the start of the season.

Global wheat production in 2017 is forecast at 752.8 million tonnes, down slightly from 2016. Most of the decrease is associated with significant production cuts in the United States and Australia. However, global output is still forecast to be the second highest on record. Global wheat trade is also seen to decline a slight 1.2 percent below the 2016/17 record level, amounting to 175.2 million tonnes. The forecast contraction in world trade in 2017/18 is largely the result of reduced import demand in Asia, more than offsetting higher expected imports by Europe and North America.

Wheat utilization is forecast to increase for the second consecutive season, reaching 738.2 million tonnes, some 0.7 percent above the previous season’s record high level. After a contraction in 2015/16, wheat utilization rebounded in 2016/17, helped by improved global supplies and lower international prices. With projected supplies in 2017/18 exceeding the previous season’s level, total wheat utilization is set to rise further, albeit at a slower pace because of firmer prices.

Inventories are forecast to increase further in 2017/18, boosted by large supplies in China. Global wheat stocks are forecast to reach 258 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2018, an all-time high and 5 percent above their opening levels. World wheat inventories have increased continuously since 2013/14, as growth in global production exceeded expansion in total world consumption. Overall, the bulk of this season’s projected expansion in world wheat reserves is expected to take place in China, where wheat inventories are forecast to increase by at least 18 million tonnes, or 20 percent, to around 110 million tonnes.

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COARSE GRAINS

A record production in 2017 amid a slow rising utilization is likely to contribute to a further expansion in world inventories. FAO forecasts global coarse grain production in 2017 to exceed the previous year. Most of the increase is associated with higher maize production in Southern Africa and South America, more than offsetting the expected reduction in the United States.

Total utilization of coarse grains in 2017/18 is forecast to increase rather marginally with the feed use growing by only 0.3 percent from 2016/17. While feed demand for maize is expected to remain relatively firm, declines in feed use of barley and sorghum in China and the United States are seen to push down the year-on-year growth in total feed utilization. Industrial use of coarse grains is also expected to experience a below-average increase, largely because of a weaker intake of maize for production of biofuels. Based on latest forecasts for global production and utilization, world stocks could rise to a new record level. Maize and barley inventories are behind this projected rise, mostly in Brazil, South Africa and the United States, while sorghum stocks are heading for a decline, mostly in Argentina, Australia and China. Overall, the major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance ratio is forecast to increase further in 2017/18, which indicates more abundant export availabilities of coarse grains for world markets during the current season. This, in turn, should comfortably meet the current projected rise in import demand.

Ample supplies in major exporting countries are forecast to drive up world trade volume slightly to nearly 184 million tonnes. Bigger maize exports account for most of the overall increase. International trade in barley and sorghum is likely to contract while trade in oats and rye is likely to stay subdued. Among the world’s leading maize exporters, the biggest year-on-year rise in exports is forecast for Brazil, more than offsetting an equally significant fall in shipments by the United States. Large export supplies in South America have, in fact, contributed not only to weaker prices but, even more importantly, to lower price volatility so far this season.

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RICE

Global production prospects were marred by a series of climatic setbacks affecting main-crops in the Northern Hemisphere during the critical summer months. Although strong production incentives in Asia and Africa permitted plantings to remain largely unaffected, the weather disruptions are now anticipated to limit world rice production growth in 2017, keeping output marginally below the 2016 record outcome of 501 million tonnes (milled basis).

International trade in rice is forecast to expand by 1 percent in 2018 to reach 45.4 million tonnes, underpinned by larger Asian purchases, namely by Indonesia, the Philippines and Saudi Arabia. Import demand is forecast to be less lively elsewhere, limited by larger local availabilities and higher international prices. Among exporters, India and Thailand are expected to retain their positions as the top global rice suppliers, although tighter availabilities could undermine their ability to compete. Sales by China, Myanmar and Viet Nam are predicted to continue progressing in 2018.

World rice utilization is forecast to reach around 503 million tonnes in 2017/18, up 1.1 percent from 2016/17. Food use is expected to account for all of this expansion, permitting a modest increase in global per capita consumption to 53.8 kg.

Despite expectations of stagnating output this season, global rice supplies are still predicted to exceed utilization, enabling a small (0.4 percent) expansion in world rice inventories at the close of the 2017/18 marketing years to 169.2 million tonnes. Continued accumulations in China are anticipated to sustain this increase, while drawdowns in Thailand and the United States could drive a 9 percent contraction in the stocks of the major exporting countries to a ten-year low.

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CASSAVA

After two decades of uninterrupted growth, world cassava production is forecast to undergo a slight contraction in 2017. A combination of policy changes, depressed root prices and adverse weather in the major producing countries is thought to have been responsible for lowering plantings in 2017 resulting in a decline in production.

The volume of world trade in cassava in 2017 is expected to remain stable, matching the positive outcomes of the two preceding years. International flows of cassava, primarily confined to East and Southeast Asia, are very much contingent on industrial and feed demand, particularly from China, the world’s leading cassava importer, and on the competitiveness of supplies in Thailand, the world’s leading exporter. However, a downturn in China’s maize supply prospects, the domestic substitute for imported cassava, has paved the way for sustained cassava deliveries to the country. The revival in cassava demand has given support to international product quotations, which had fallen to multi-year lows in the past 12 months.

The current positive trade prospects may only provide a temporary stimulus to cassava sectors in the region. A bumper maize crop in China in the following season would pose a significant threat to cassava demand as would a more active policy of de-stocking maize in the country.

The potential for cassava to compete in markets beyond China is also uncertain, given that international maize prices are currently hovering at relatively very low levels. While cassava root prices in Southeast Asia have firmed in recent months, the outlook for next year and beyond will much depend on whether producers would be willing to accept the risks of a possible strong decline in cassava demand in China. Already some indication is provided by way of a recent official survey in Thailand, which points to 9 percent drop in cassava area in 2018.

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OILCROPS

The 2016/17 season saw an easing in the global oilseeds and oilmeal supply and demand situation, while vegetable oil fundamentals remained relatively tight. Accordingly, during the recently ended October/September marketing year, international prices for oilseeds and oilmeals remained subdued, while those of oils/fats maintained their strength.

Preliminary forecasts for 2017/18 point to a broadly balanced global supply and demand situation, in both the oilseed and meal markets as well as in the oils/fats segment. Global oilseed production is forecast to match last season’s record level, with small year-on-year contractions in soybean and sunflowerseed compensated by improvements in other oilcrops. While the global area of the seven major oilseeds is anticipated to expand further, average yields are expected to retreat to trend levels, following last season’s unparalleled highs. For soybeans, individual countries’ prospects are mixed, with year-on-year gains concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, notably the United States, China and Canada, while, in South America, possible drops are looming in Brazil and Argentina.

World oils/fats production is forecast to expand moderately in 2017/18. Growth would be led by palm oil, with production in Southeast Asia reverting to average growth, after the last two seasons’ El Niño-related swings. Global oils/fats utilization could grow less than last season, assuming moderate income growth in a number of countries and only limited expansion in demand from the biodiesel sector. International meal output, on the other hand, is