In 2010, complexity scientist Peter Turchin had a letter published in prestigious academic journal Nature. In it he predicted the US and Europe would experience surges in political instability in the early 2020s. A decade later, in May 2020, a video of Minnesota resident George Floyd’s murder by a US police officer went viral, triggering months of protests.
There were violent confrontations with police, looting and arson. Nineteen people died. Cities across the nation imposed curfews and deployed troops to restore order.
Eight months after that, Donald Trump told a crowd of demonstrators in Washington that the presidential election had been stolen, leading to the storming of the US Senate. Five people died. A few days after Turchin was interviewed by the Listener, riots broke out across France.
There’s always a chorus of astrologers, soothsayers and macroeconomists confidently predicting the future, and there’s always chaos and instability somewhere in the world – so statistically some percentage of prophecies will accidentally come true. But Turchin and his theories have attracted serious attention in recent years.
That’s not merely because his prediction was validated, but because of his approach and his explanations of why societies fragment and decline. He’s been pivotal in the invention of a new science – cliodynamics (Clio being the Greek muse of history).
It’s multidisciplinary, drawing from history, mathematics, sociology and economics. It uses vast quantities of data and sophisticated algorithms. Using these techniques Turchin and his collaborators claim to have identified cycles of stability and violence across human history: recurring patterns in the decline and fall of societies. His theory tells us why a golden age is followed
