Divining the Future: Human Intellectual Evolution

By Kurt C. Koehler

What is Human Intellectual Evolution?

Could Darwins concept of evolution be incomplete?

Darwins theory just might be insufficient, mainly because Darwin didnt apply his theory to the most complex organism of all; the human intellect. There is no question that in the past, numerous civilizations have ascended and then receded in terms of military power, influence and economic clout. Why? Will it happen to us?

Human Intellectual Evolution accurately explains the past and greatly enhances the odds of successfully predicting the future.

Human Intellectual Evolution drives the process of history forward and illuminates the path ahead. Understanding the three variables that affect the rate of intellectual development is critical to predicting the future and more profitably directing our time, energy and money.

The future of the United States, what happens next in China, and the stability of the Middle East are all critical questions with global consequences.

Profit and success will accrue to individuals who best grasp the concept of Human Intellectual Evolution and have the courage and fortitude to act upon their convictions.

• Language: English
• Publisher: AuthorHouse
• Release date: Jul 30, 2008
• ISBN: 9781467850728

Kurt C. Koehler

Kurt C. Koehler is an international entrepreneur creating five start-up companies including two with partners in Shenzhen, China.  He has traveled extensively throughout the world especially in East Asia.  He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the Kelly School of Business at Indiana University and a Master of Arts in European History.  His first book is entitled Interpretation of History:  Resolution of the Current Excess.  He is currently the cofounder and CEO of AlGalCo; the company with the exclusive license from Purdue University to commercialize a new technology that creates hydrogen gas on demand. 

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© 2008 Kurt C. Koehler. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

First published by AuthorHouse 7/21/2008

ISBN: 978-1-4343-8629-8 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-4343-8628-1 (hc)

ISBN: 978-1-4678-5072-8 (ebk)

Printed in the United States of America

Bloomington, Indiana

Executive Summary

It has become almost a truism during the past several years to accept the claim that China is the next great superpower. Time, Newsweek, and almost every major newspaper and publication has proclaimed the fact that the 21st century will be the Chinese century. China has indeed experienced tremendous growth since the early 1980s and is rapidly emerging as a global power. Consumers worldwide rely on low pricing from rural China and Special Economic Zones when purchasing products ranging from millet to sophisticated electronic devices.

The question that needs to be answered by investors, entrepreneurs, corporate executives, and concerned citizens is whether it is wise to begin or expand a presence in China. Should a company or an individual commit the capital, time, and human resources needed for such a massive undertaking? After 30 years of dramatic expansion, what are the risks and rewards in today’s China? Despite the prognostications of forever continuing growth, is there a nagging underlying current of uneasiness?

It is dangerously naïve to believe a country populated by more than one billion people can seamlessly transition from communism and 2,200 years of central control and planning into a thriving capitalistic democracy. It is true other countries, including several in East Asia, have been able to effect such a radical transformation in the past. Countries such as Japan during the Meiji Restoration, Russia after the October Revolution, and Nazi Germany all began their economic renaissance under strong central government control. However, after the passage of time and initially impressive results, political and economic problems resurfaced. More recent examples include Taiwan and South Korea. Both countries, Taiwan in 1949 and South Korea in 1950, were ruled by military dictatorships in response to civil war. Since the mid-20th century, both have experienced tremendous economic growth and accompanying political liberalization. However, this process has not transpired without intense growing pains. Fist fights between representatives during sessions of the Taiwanese Parliament, street protests, and sometimes violent riots erupted spasmodically over the course of several years. It is also critical to note that post World War II Germany, Japan, and Korea all enjoyed the benefits of an American military presence, including ground troops, whereas Taiwan’s security was guaranteed by the U.S. Navy and Air Force. In contrast, China has experienced only a minor disruption during its growth phase as witnessed by the protests in Tiananmen Square in May and June of 1989. The outcome is well documented and favorable only to proponents of the political status quo.

Since those heady days in late spring 1989, a significant number of Chinese have become affluent, resulting in the emergence of a middle class. It is highly unlikely a central government that has controlled Chinese life for well over two millennia will voluntarily share political power with its citizens. It is also highly unlikely that the rising expectations of an increasingly wealthy, educated, and globalized citizenry will not someday clash with the reality of an omnipotent and conservative single-party political system. The consequences of such a confrontation will be truly global. Not only is the United States dependent on cheap Chinese imports to moderate domestic inflation, but China currently holds in reserve more than one trillion U.S. dollars. A significant percentage of the revenues and the majority of growth opportunities for companies comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average emanate from China. The effect on the price/earnings ratios and therefore on the stock price of the companies currently involved in China will be devastating if there is a disruption in the Chinese economy. Therefore, it is critical that a different perspective be considered before additional time and resources are invested in the mainland.

The basis for this less than bullish outlook is a new interpretation of world history predicated on the theory of Human Intellectual Evolution (HIE). HIE theory is not to be confused with Darwinian evolution. Darwin describes the process in which living organisms adapt to changes in their physical environment. Human Intellectual Evolution acknowledges the importance of the physical environment and furthers the discussion to include the human intellect. HIE does not assume the inevitable advancement of man. It is a theory that accounts for general trends observed during the last few thousand years of written human history. It is not a comparative history of different people in widely scattered geographic locations during unique periods of the past. It transcends our differences to reveal a common bond among all people.

The central tenet is that individuals possess from birth an intellectual potential whose limits are unknown. Intellectual evolution occurs when potential is engaged in the contemplation and/or testing in reality (the sensory world) of new ideas and concepts or variations on old ones. The result is not always favorable, as history is littered with experiments that did not meet the expectations of their proponents—e.g., Marx and communism. Progress can be considered achieved whenever potential is utilized, even if the result is discovering something does not work.

So far, three variables affecting the rate of HIE have been identified. The first is a fluctuating climate. As will be examined in the body of the text, the more extreme a particular region’s climate, assuming an adequate growing season, the faster the rate of HIE. A more fully utilized intellect is necessary in order for people to survive and prosper while living in geographic regions that consistently endure extremes in heat and cold.

The second variable is the degree of competition for ideas within a particular society. Those countries that encourage and accommodate a market for the exchange of ideas and opinions experience a faster rate of evolution as opposed to those who stifle dissent or coerce orthodoxy.

The third variable is the distribution of power between the individual and the state. Power is defined as material wealth and is measured as a percentage of gross domestic product originating from the private versus the public sector. If too much power accretes to the individual, societies revert back to barbarism such as during the French Revolution. If too much power is controlled by the state, totalitarianism or dictatorship ensues. A balance between the two extremes ensures a faster rate of HIE. Exactly where the equilibrium lies is open to constant debate and is the definition of politics.

The first variable is no longer as valid in modern times due to the introduction of sophisticated heating, ventilation, and cooling systems, especially the latter. However, it is still extensively discussed and demonstrated in the text as it provides a basis of understanding why history has happened the way it has. As in all cases involving HIE, a fourth variable will probably someday emerge that better identifies the process of history.

It is important to introduce the concept of HIE in order to discern China’s future as well as take advantage of the lessons of history so that opportunities may be discovered. Most current economic systems and philosophical schools of thought do not fully account for potential. Entrepreneurs and visionaries understand potential instinctively. They perceive opportunities few see (or perhaps no one else sees) and act to take advantage of the situation. In contrast, communism and socialism too often perceive the human condition both economically and politically as a zero sum game. The emphasis is on control of the status quo instead of expanding into untried and untested potential—the very definition of intellectual evolution. The central government, hereinafter denoted as the state, must provide physical security to its citizens and at least a modicum of reasonable laws and rules. It is also critical that the state recognize the existence of potential by permitting the private sector to generate a profit.

There is a bias toward democracy and capitalism throughout this book because the author is from a culture well-formed in these ideas. However, the reader will see past this bias and come to recognize that the former best considers potential and the latter gives the individual the greatest opportunity to discover and fulfill it. In the future, problems in applying both democracy and capitalism will no doubt occur and a new variation on an existing philosophy or perhaps a brand new concept will emerge. HIE occurs eventually but the rate at which it develops will vary.

HIE is a theory accounting for certain facets of both current events and history. It requires extensive review and testing in order to be proven as fact. Three case histories are presented dealing with modern conflicts between physically similar people who nonetheless have intellectually evolved at different rates:

1. Israel and its Arab neighbors

2. Mainland China and Taiwan

3. North and South Korea

There are other examples such as East and West Germany but time constraints have limited their study. Any individual interested in profiting by the study of the past in order to more accurately discern the future will find this book worth the time and effort to read and contemplate. Included are not only corporate executives, investors, and entrepreneurs, but also policy makers and historians. One of the most relevant questions is this: Can China transition to democratic capitalism without intense growing pains?

HIE theory can be applied to other parts of the world as well. What will happen in the future in India, Africa, and the Middle East? In a discussion of U.S. politics, what will be the impact of proposed policies and regulations?

All history is not bunk. The human intellect evolves and understanding why and how can offer an exceptional insight into the future. Invest in China, continue an American military presence in Iraq, establish socialized medicine domestically? Let HIE theory be your guide.

Contents

Executive Summary

Forward

Parameters

Darwin

Definitions

The First Variable:

Climate

The Second Variable:

Competition

The Third Variable:

Distribution of Power Between the Individual and the State

Case Studies

Case Study One:

The Jews and the Muslims

Case Study Two:

Mainland China and Taiwan

Case Study Three:

North and South Korea

Metaphysics:

The Past

Metaphysics:

The Driving Force

Speculation

Other Perspectives

Summary and Conclusion

Notes

Bibliography

Forward

During a trip to Egypt in September 1983, I was strolling among the ancient remains of the Karnak temple complex. For those unfamiliar with the site, the size and complexity of the extant ruins is truly amazing. Massive columns filled with inscriptions tower above the casual visitor. Giant colossi still guard the Way of the Sphinx lined with statuary extending for hundreds of yards. The previous day, our tour group visited the great pyramids at Giza and marveled at their impressive bulk and craftsmanship. To construct just one of the pyramids, it is estimated almost one million stones, each weighing two and one-half tons, were quarried, transported to the site, and maneuvered into place. It is difficult to comprehend such structures were built more than 5,000 years ago without modern day cranes and earth moving equipment.

As we wandered about the desert in Karnak, I spotted a small group of women with jars carried on top of their heads walking to the Nile River. I asked our interpreter what they were doing and he said they were on their way to fill water jars for irrigating crops. When the women arrived at the banks of the Nile, I noticed they placed each jar at the end of a long pole and dunked it into the river. When full, the jar was swung back to the group and an empty jar replaced the full one. When all the containers had been filled in this fashion, the ladies walked back to their village along the same path trodden earlier. It was at this point that a question arose that has captivated me ever since. How could a society that was so advanced 5,000 years ago have fallen so far behind? Even in my supposedly backwoods home state of Indiana, a geographic region deploying farming techniques that have rapidly advanced in less than 200 years since the time of the American Indians, farmers deploy irrigation systems that are hundreds of yards long capable of watering more than an acre at once. How could the descendants of the builders of the pyramids, the goldsmiths of King Tut’s treasures, and the creators of Karnak still draw water from the Nile with a bucket and a pole? Why was Egypt the most advanced civilization in the world at one point and yet today is mired in poverty? Why have certain geographic regions and the people populating them risen and fallen in military strength, influence, wealth, and creativity? Is there a discernable pattern to history offering a clue about the future so that one’s efforts can be profitably deployed? So many questions suddenly arose that sleep became difficult. The lifelong search for some order out of the chaos of history has led to this effort. The following is an attempt to address the questions that have consumed my mind ever since that fateful day in 1983. My sincerest hope is that, at the least, my proposed theory can now be shared, discussed, and improved upon by the reader.

Parameters

For most of recorded history, people have attempted to understand the past within some sort of framework or guideline. Sometimes the purpose was to satisfy intellectual curiosity, other times to more accurately predict the future so as to increase the probability of making money. There are as many different theories as to why events occurred in the manner in which they are recorded as there are historians. Explanations range from Hegel’s dialectic to Whig history to the chaos theory. It appears that for every hypothesis put forward into the arena of scholarly and public debate, some event directly contradicts and demolishes an otherwise satisfactory thesis.

The purpose of this endeavor is to present one more hypothesis that might not only foster understanding of the past but perhaps better elucidate the future. Thomas Hobbes might agree with the reason for this effort. In the 17th century, he wrote that it is the anxiety for the future that disposes man to inquire into the cause of things: because the knowledge of them makes men the better able to order the present to their best advantage.¹ After all, the best guesser is he that is most versed and studied in the matters he guesses at, for he has the most signs to guess by.²

The term Human Intellectual Evolution (HIE) will be employed hereafter to describe the proposed theory. Often times, the word evolution acts as a red flag. Upon hearing it, the minds of some people slam shut and their mental barriers immediately rise in defense of deeply held personal beliefs. As an example, participants in the recurring Creationism versus Evolution debate often retreat into dogma refusing to consider new perspectives or encouraging the free flow of debate. An open mind is the best tool when searching for truth and the reader’s indulgence is hereby requested.

The term evolution within the context of the intellect is not to be confused with classic Darwin. Darwin’s discussion of evolution deals with the physical adaptation of a living organism to changes in the physical environment. HIE theory focuses on changes in the human intellect due to variations beyond those present only in the physical environment. The role of Darwin in defining evolution is examined but the focus of Human Intellectual Evolution will be centered more on the intellect and how it reacts and grows.

The definition of evolution including its manifestations is carefully considered. What will not be examined, at least to any great extent, are the comparative spiritual aspects of the intellect. It is far too difficult to quantify and dispassionately discuss the metaphysical component of our minds. Religious faith has played a key role in history and has often been one of the most important motivations, if not the most important motivation, for human behavior. The contribution and impediment of religion will be considered but there will be no comparisons between the virtues of different faiths. We will follow the historian Burckhardt’s advice to not engage in moral criticism of past ages as it transfers present day desiderata to the past, views personalities according to set principles, and makes too little allowance for the urgencies of the moment.³ However, there is a chapter entitled, Metaphysics, that discusses both the origin and the destiny of mankind. Darwin contemplated and commented on such themes and why should he have all the fun? The discussion of metaphysics begins with the origin of life and concludes with a possible endpoint in the evolutionary process.

Other than the discussion on metaphysics, the burden of proving intellectual evolution will be constituted by as much empirical data as possible. Can an intellect change, and if it does, how can the difference be measured? What is progress and is its opposite devolution? What happens if an evolved person or society undergoes dramatic change and conditions become less favorable? Does the process work in reverse?

It is the contention of this book that there is not only physical evolution but intellectual evolution and that it can be quantified by data and by logical contemplation. It is fact that disparate parts of the world have progressed beyond other political and geographic areas. It is also historic fact that over time, countries in different parts of the world sometimes lead and sometimes follow other countries in other geographic areas. HIE theory could very well account for such changes.

Thousands of years ago, Egypt and other countries in the Middle East led the world into a new form of organization called civilization. One thousand years ago, China possessed technology far in advance of the rest of the world. Paper, gunpowder, and the Grand Canal were proof of a superior level of achievement. Consider during the same period at roughly A.D 1000, Europe was convulsed by repeated invasions and nearly collapsed politically, economically, and socially.

Five hundred years later, however, Europeans sailed the oceans in wooden ships in the name of God, King, profit, and conquest. Why had such a dramatic shift occurred?

During the 20th century, two of the former leaders in intellectual achievement, Germany and Japan, not only failed to maintain their advantage but regressed into arguably the most systematic barbaric countries in history. How did this happen? Can it happen again?

To add to the confusion, individuals and whole groups of people have constantly moved within and between political entities and geographic territories. Some movement was voluntary; for example, the establishment of new trading relationships or better economic opportunities. However, many times, the reason for leaving the comfort and familiarity of home was not voluntary. Pogroms, invasions, wars, famine, and plagues are often reasons for migration and immigration.

It is even theorized that the types of food grown in a particular region affect people’s intellectual development. Some authors have speculated that in areas where wheat is the predominate grain, consumers tend to grow physically larger due to the higher nutritional content versus that of rice or corn. Because wheat exhausts the soil, old fields have to lie fallow. This forces farmers to constantly move and clear new fields for planting.⁴ However, the question remains of why wheat growing areas such as Mesopotamia rose and then fell in influence while other wheat producing regions such as Germany ascended in power far later in history.

History books are replete with the causes and effects of upheaval and the impact on the human condition. Jacques Barzun reminds us that history is the totality of human deeds and includes the infinite diversity of human character, the range of human desires and powers, the multiplicity of social and political institutions, the endless schemes proposed for improving life, the numberless faiths, codes, and customs passionately adhered to, fiercely hated, and in unceasing warfare, the vast universe of art all existing to an accompaniment of sacrifice, injustice, suffering, and persecution imposed or willingly endured.⁵ It seems an impossible task but an attempt will be made to demonstrate and explain a theory accounting for the chaos.

One cause of differences in intellectual evolution that can be eliminated is that of race. Thomas Sowell surmises, and historical data supports his conclusion, that viewing racial groups over time undermines both race and racism as explanations for social and economic differences. He notes that Europeans and Chinese have changed relative positions dramatically over the centuries. One thousand years ago, China was far ahead of Europe technologically and socially, but in more recent centuries, their positions have been reversed. He could also have added China’s reemergence beginning toward the end of the 20th century and continuing today. If genetic superiority is invoked to explain their relative positions in one era, it is contradicted by the reversal of positions in another era.

Sowell further explains this is not unique to China or Europe. During various periods of history, the forefront of technology and cultural development has occurred in the Middle East, in southeastern Europe, in northwestern Europe, and in some aspects, modern day Japan. But all these places and their people have also lagged far behind other regions and people during other periods of history. He concludes that there has been insufficient change in the racial composition of those residing in these regions to explain such epoch making rises and falls in genetic terms.⁶

He could also have concluded that not enough time has passed during the span of recorded history for a genetic modification to have been effectively and widely dispersed throughout a population of a major country. We must look elsewhere for an answer as to why change occurred in the past and therefore what will happen in the future.

Assuming that human intellectual evolution can be established as a plausible theory, three variables that influence its rate of development will be proposed. The first is the climate relevant to a specific geographic region. Before the fairly recent invention of gas furnaces and central and window air conditioners, our ancestors were forced to survive changes in the seasons with little or no mechanical assistance. After acquiring food and water, the construction of some form of shelter or the adaptation of existing natural features for protection against the elements was required. Climate determined which plants, if any, could be grown and for what part of the year. The extent and kind of fauna also depended on the climate.

Due to space constraints, the role of insects and disease in shaping human history will not be examined to any great degree but not for lack of enthusiasm. There is evidence that personal hygiene and disease bearing insects have influenced the rate of intellectual evolution–for example, trial and error in determining how to mitigate outbreaks of bubonic plague in medieval Europe. It is hoped that in the future, others will explore and comment on this aspect of HIE theory.

The global fossil record and core samples dating from various epochs confirm that the climate of the Earth changes over time, sometimes rather dramatically. Some areas of the planet have become cooler while others warmed. Rainfall distribution seems to have shifted as well. The available data for climate change during the span of recorded history is juxtaposed over the ascension of early civilizations to determine if there is any correlation between fluctuating temperatures and the rise and decline of regional powers. Such analysis could be very helpful in ascertaining whether the development of the intellect is influenced by climate and if so, to what extent.

There is one caveat to the discussion on climate that must be acknowledged. Within the last 100 years, shifts in the climate have become less relevant as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems have mitigated much of the temperature difference experienced during the course of a year. Entire cities such as Los Angeles and Las Vegas have risen and prospered in areas that previously could not have supported large populations. The transfer of massive quantities of fresh water into arid parts of the country and unrestrained usage of air conditioners have allowed the desert to bloom. Air conditioning has skewered the impact of climate on much of the modern world. In order to be useful, climate data only up to the 20th century will be presented and examined. The impact of temperature variations on the development of the intellect may be blunted by modern technology, but it can be extremely useful in helping to understand why certain geographic regions and the countries contained within rose to prominence and then fell into obscurity.

The second variable affecting the rate of intellectual evolution is the level of competition within a society. Does open debate help or hinder the pursuit of progress? What effect, if any, does contact with people from other parts of the world have, especially when new ideas and behaviors are introduced? Does the disarray and conflict inherent in open competition encourage or inhibit the intellect’s ability to expand? The limits of competition within and between societies will also be discussed.

The third variable is the distribution of power between the individual and the state. Many different forms of government have arisen during recorded history ranging from utopian communism to totalitarian dictatorship. The question is, what is the affect the sundry forms of government have on the rate of intellectual evolution? Is progress enhanced or constrained when all power is in the hands of the individual; or the other extreme, when it resides completely with the state? Initially, people lived in clans, tribes, and small towns. Today, the size and scope of government has increased in relationship to the increase in population. The significance of this development will be examined.

To help define the concepts discussed herein, the term state refers to a national central government and not a constituent part of a larger governing body such as Iowa or Ohio. The words nation and state are used interchangeably in this book as well as in the normal course of modern debate. The definition of state refers to people living within a specific geographic location demarcated by an agreed upon physical boundary. However, this simple definition is sometimes not entirely sufficient. For instance, the border between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir is still in dispute. The nuclear armed rivals have fought wars over the question of who controls the land and the indigenous population. Even in the 21st century, the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is similarly unsubstantiated. Somewhere in the desert wasteland of the Empty Quarter, the former stops and the latter begins. If the modern world can’t quite define the physical limits of a country or what it means to be a citizen of a specific state, how much more difficult is it when discussing the borders and qualifications of membership in ancient or vanished regimes?

In the past, historians have used different criteria to define a state such as common language, culture, or shared experiences. As is often the case, exceptions continuously arise. China has one of the longest histories of any country and yet it is not unusual for Mandarin speaking northerners to be completely unable to communicate with Cantonese speaking southerners. In the 19th century, the Hapsburgs ruled an area of central Europe in which the official language was German, but few subjects could read or understand the royal decrees. Even a contemporary country such as Switzerland has four official languages: English, German, French, and Italian.

Some countries share a common language, culture, and history but are geographically separated and therefore deemed independent nations. The U.S., Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand are obvious examples. Geographic continuity or lack thereof, is a helpful prerequisite for defining a state.

A second qualification can also be included: taxation. When levied on personal income, an individual willing to remit money in the form of taxes to some form of central government is implicitly recognizing a nation exists. Payment can be forwarded to a village, city, or town and not qualify as a national government. It is necessary that the taxing authority be recognized as more than just a local permutation of government. As money and power are equivalent, paying taxes to a non-local entity is an indicator of how much power an individual is willing to surrender. There must be a benefit, perceived or actual, or the taxpayer becomes recalcitrant and pursues every means possible to avoid the burden.

It is far easier to see the direct benefit of taxes paid to local entities. Most people in the developed world enjoy weekly trash pick-up, reasonably smooth highways, and other infrastructure necessary to support a modern society. Money remitted to the federal government doesn’t always return as conspicuously as money spent for more local needs. By complying with a federal tax code, the individual is implicitly claiming that he is a citizen of the nation collecting his money. If an individual writes a check to Hanoi, he lives in Vietnam, not in China.

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