Wagner revolt in Russia sparks questions about Putin's power, stability in Middle East and Africa
On June 24, the escalating clash between the Russian military high command and the Wagner Group mercenaries teetered on the precipice.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, at the helm of Wagner, had boldly crossed the proverbial Rubicon, casting a dark shadow over Moscow's ability to contain the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Openly upbraiding the Russian army on social media, accusing its commanders of cowardice, Prigozhin repositioned his mercenary units from Ukraine to the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, poised to march on to Moscow.
In response, Vladimir Putin, addressing the nation, denounced the back-stabbing, summoning the security forces to quell the armed insurrection. Later on the same day, the Wagner boss made a U-turn by accepting Belarus President Aleksander Lukashenko's offer of safe haven. Soon after, the FSB, a Russian security agency, announced that all the accusations of armed mutiny against the Wagner Group had been dismissed.
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Yet, the unintended consequences arising from the "Wagner franchise" operating on its own across Africa and the Middle East would be far-reaching. Beijing is taking note. A network of mercenaries loyal only to Prigozhin in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, or even worse, heavily armed splinter cells of the Wagner Group roaming free in Africa are a clear and present danger for China's Belt and Road Initiative. In both situations, there is no direct communication with Moscow to negotiate red lines that should not be crossed.
Just after the beginning of the armed rebellion, Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, was the first among Putin's allies to state his support for Moscow, which also swept aside any doubt arising from his personal relationship with Prigozhin that was cemented during the early days of the invasion of Ukraine.
Tehran, another Russian ally, followed suit. Foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said what was happening in Russia was an internal issue of the country, and the Islamic Republic of Iran supported the rule of law in the Russian Federation.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a phone call with Putin, advised restraint and reason, while Beijing bided its time. On June 25, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the Wagner incident was Russia's internal affair and China supported Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.
Nevertheless, the ongoing upheaval, and the uncertain future of Prigozhin at the helm of the Wagner Group in Belarus, will inevitably affect the actions of the Wagner mercenaries from Benghazi to Darfur, in areas with a growing footprint of Chinese mining companies. The ongoing investigation into the deaths of nine Chinese miners in the Central African Republic is a case in point.
While the move to Rostov-on-Don and the sudden U-turn is only another chapter in the evolution of Moscow's relationship with its own mercenaries, it has exposed Russia's vulnerabilities: the failure to contain the mercenaries' advance in the strategically important southern military command. Prigozhin's vitriolic attacks on oligarchs and the military top brass' incompetence and greed are also resonating with the Russian population. Nevertheless the Wagner boss' reach may have exceeded his grasp by challenging Putin's narrative on the Ukraine invasion and moving to the point of no return.
Amid this fluid landscape, the Wagner veterans, battle-hardened from the siege of Bakhmut, consolidated their position in Rostov-on-Don, gradually inching northwards towards Moscow, their ultimate destination lying merely 500km away from the city of Voronezh.
Yet, one pressing question that has lingered since the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine remains unanswered: Where is the Russian Air Force? Wagner may be a heavily armed mercenary group, boasting tanks, lightweight anti-aircraft systems and some ground-to-air missiles, but long-range anti-missile and anti-aircraft defences have not been part of their modus operandi. Consequently, the mercenary convoys en route to Moscow could have been vulnerable to aerial assault, unless a conscious decision had been made to permit Prigozhin to proceed with impunity well before Lukashenko's offer.
While the Biden administration has spent months deliberating whether to designate the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation, Putin has deftly claimed the mantle, branding the armed insurrection as a terrorist threat and imposing stringent counterterrorism laws in major Russian cities. Lukashenko's promise of immunity could not last long and Prigozhin could maintain his early announcement to retire to Africa, where his men are welcome in several countries there.
In the book My Russia: War or Peace?, Russian-Swiss writer Mikhail Shishkin emphasises a crucial observation: victories in Russia have consistently prolonged the regime's lifespan, while defeats have brought its disintegration closer.
Following Putin's televised address condemning the armed mutiny, the czar appeared weaker. The primary concern for Putin currently is not the 25,000 Wagner fighters relocating to Belarus, but rather the numerous Russian soldiers, policemen, security officers and field commanders who turned a blind eye as Prigozhin's men infiltrated Russian territory. Even within Russia's tightly controlled media sphere, the enduring foundation of Putin's power is beginning to show signs of instability.
Russia's use of mercenaries as an extrajudicial tool served its geopolitical ambitions and need for plausible deniability, until it backfired on Moscow. By operating outside the Russian army and security services' chain of command, Putin managed to keep the military on its toes, but unwittingly enabled Prigozhin's rise. Now that the genie is out of the bottle, Putin's use of the Wagner Group has spiralled out of control, posing a threat to his own power.
One constant throughout history is that mercenaries in war have a tendency to swiftly switch sides, but abandon their commander even faster when money is dwindling.
While the situation remains highly unpredictable, one thing is certain: the tremors of this seismic shift will reverberate across Africa and the Middle East. The full consequences of crossing the Rubicon have yet to be fully experienced.
Alessandro Arduino is an affiliate lecturer at the Lau China Institute and King's College London. He is the author of "Money for Mayhem: Mercenaries, Private Military Companies, Drones, and the Future of War".
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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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