When your seatmate on the plane talks about the Fed, you know things aren't right

You know things are getting dicey in the economy when the phrase "Federal Reserve" enters daily conversation.

Typically, the "Fed" is a pretty wonky and sleepy corner of America, known for shockingly dull press conferences. When economic sailing is smooth, there's not much news coming out of the central bank that is of even remote interest to people other than economists or journalists.

But a few weeks ago, I sat next to a woman on an airplane. She described herself as knowing "zero" about the economy and then proceeded to ask me whether I thought the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates to help fight inflation.

I immediately felt an acute sense of dread: When the Fed becomes a topic of general conversation, it means big shifts are happening. The Federal Reserve is an immensely powerful organization that is part of our economy's foundation--it's tectonic plates.