Ukraine war provides 'new motivation' for China to seek tech self-reliance amid Russia sanctions

Russia's increasing isolation from the West may reinforce China's push for self-reliance in advanced technologies, according to analysts, with Western sanctions already leaving one joint venture "effectively dead".

Moscow is facing a barrage of restrictions from the United States and the European Union over its invasion of Ukraine, raising questions over the future of its advanced technology trade, development and investment relationship with China.

This covers a broad range of areas including civil aviation, artificial intelligence and dual-use technologies that have both civilian and military application.

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Cortney Weinbaum, senior management scientist at the Rand Corporation, believes that Western sanctions could push Russia to boost arms trade with China in the short term.

However, Beijing's long-term objective remains intact as it seeks to become self-reliant in crucial technologies to ensure economic security.

"Beijing has been trying to advance its research and development and manufacturing sectors for decades. The country does not want to be reliant on foreign systems, it wants autonomy to make its own military decisions, and reliance on foreign countries is undesirable," said Weinbaum.

"Engines are an example of this; China has strived for years to produce effective aircraft engines, and yet they still flounder and rely on Russian systems.

"This war may provide a new motivation for Beijing to reduce its reliance on Moscow, but wishing does not make it so. Just as Beijing has wanted to reduce its reliance for years, how can they be successful in the future where they've failed in the past?"

Weinbaum co-wrote a research report published by Rand in February that examined China's strengths and weaknesses in its defence industrial base.

The "Assessing Systemic Strengths and Vulnerabilities of China's Defense Industrial Base" report was commissioned by the US Congress and found that China relies on the US and its allies in several areas, including talent, raw materials, advanced components and intellectual property.

China is also dependent on Russia and Ukraine, and, to some degree, France, for aircraft and naval engines, which represented the largest share of all Chinese arms imports between 2015 and 2020, according to the report.

To break the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus, China and Russia have sought to develop a widebody passenger jet, although the launch of the CR929 has suffered a series of delays since 2015.

In particular, the plane would need to rely on foreign suppliers for its twin-engine because neither China nor Russia has been able to build one suitable for a widebody passenger jet.

Russia's civil aviation industry has also been sanctioned by the US and its allies as the country escalated its war in Ukraine.

US aerospace companies, such as Boeing and Raytheon Technologies, have suspended operations in Russia, and last week the British government said it would block exports of aviation and space-related goods and technology to Russia.

"The CR929 project is effectively dead. Started in 2015 with great fanfare, it has never been more than a press conference talking point," said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

"And given that the plane would depend heavily on Western suppliers, which will now be off-limits permanently, I see no path to this plane's successful completion."

China is also developing its own narrow-body jet, the C919, but most of the parts are also imported from foreign manufacturers, including the engine, avionics, control systems, communications and landing gear.

Besides commercial projects like the CR929, to culminate more innovation in advanced manufacturing, China and Russia have also sought to increase collaboration in research and development.

In 2019, President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to expand technological cooperation as the two leaders stressed that China-Russia relations had entered a "new era of comprehensive and strategic partnership", facilitated by initiatives including setting up of science and technology parks and research centres, as well as academic exchanges.

"Even if China does seek to support Russia's technology industry, it may find that import restrictions limit its ability to trade effectively. Meanwhile, the ban on semiconductor exports to Russia will reinforce China's determination to strengthen its own semiconductor manufacturing autonomy," said Singapore-based global technology market analyst firm Canalys in a report earlier this month.

"In the longer-term, even if Putin doesn't survive, the conflict has likely set back for good Russia's attempts to attract the world's leading technology firms."

China will have no choice but to reduce their economic ties, according to Kennedy, if Russia remains a pariah state.

"As long as Russia is acting as an expansionist rogue state, the sanctions net around Russia will expand, and it will entrap anyone else that seeks to cooperate with it. China's economic connections with the West are exponentially larger than those with Russia, and it cannot put those ties at stake," Kennedy said.

Weinbaum also believes that China will not like to be tied with Russia in the long term, and is likely to look for future opportunities to untangle themselves, while maintaining the strategic benefits that come from a China-Russia geopolitical alliance to confront the US in many issues, including Taiwan.

"China's ultimate end goals are to be a global superpower that is reliant on no one. To depend on other countries is to be unable to make decisions unilaterally, and I believe this position creates a feeling of impotence in Beijing, even if only in selected sectors," Weinbaum added.

"When the United Nation is debating a resolution on China's invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party will want someone voting in their interests. As they had seen with Russia, it's always better to have a friend on the Security Council."

Beijing regards the island as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland - by force if necessary.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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