The break-up: Richard Nixon’s great wager reverberates from the '70s to today

This is Part V of The Great Wager. Click here for all five episodes. 

In 2011, Vice President Joe Biden and Premier Xi Jinping went for a walk in the woods.

Biden was in China on a state visit. It was already clear that Xi would soon become the leader of the Communist Party.

Xi turned to Biden and started talking about spy planes. He told Biden to stop sending American spy planes over Chinese territory.

Biden replied, if China was more transparent, the United States wouldn’t have to.

But Xi didn’t back down. He told Biden that China wouldn’t stand for such interference.

Biden told me and other American reporters based in China this story in 2013. Of course, now in 2022, both Biden and Xi are their country’s top leaders.

And that walk in the woods feels more significant. Back in 2011, the relationship between the two countries was relatively easy. The power balance was still clear, and still in favor of the U.S. But there were hints of change on the horizon.

Today, the rise of China has changed