Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023 | Crossing Thin Ice Podcast

Moderately Adverse Conditions: We have generally used a continuation of the current environment as our base assumption. But now, with the encouragement of the NY DFS, that is being treated as worse than “Moderately Adverse” scenario. Insurers need to develop a robust set of stress... by Crossing Thin Ice

18 min listen

Learning from Loss: A major loss often causes management to question past decisions. They might even reverse some of them, but this may be an overreaction. The Chief Risk Officer improves the discussion by bringing a systematic review of the risk related decisions that ... by Crossing Thin Ice

18 min listen

Narrative Scenarios: The current real life scenario combines a pandemic, weather events, supply chain issues, inflation and a regional war all at the same time. Multi risk scenarios can provide major insights about a firm’s resilience that do not necessarily happen with ... by Crossing Thin Ice

19 min listen

Most Dangerous Risks: Over 200 respondents in the Dangerous Risks to Insurers Survey reordered the top risks, with Inflation swapping with Cybersecurity and cybercrime for the #1 spot, and Global/National recession moving into the top 5 at #3. By Dave Ingram and Max R... by Crossing Thin Ice

17 min listen

Three Little Pigs: When you encounter vastly different risk taking behaviors at two different businesses, you shouldn’t automatically presume that they are driven by totally different risk tolerances. In some cases they are actually the result of similar risk tolerance... by Crossing Thin Ice

15 min listen

Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023: A deep dive into the risk selected as the Most Dangerous of 2023. We compare recent inflation spikes against past events, look at the drivers of the current bout of inflation, the impact on the insurance industry along with the most common responses... by Crossing Thin Ice

23 min listen

Spillover Diseases: As humans encroach on new ecosystems diseases found in animals and birds can jump to a new home inside us. We think about coronavirus and influenza but should monitor closely diseases like bird flu and Ebola. By Max Rudolph by Crossing Thin Ice

19 min listen

Microplastics: Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing n... by Crossing Thin Ice

13 min listen

Three Levels of Stress: Stress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the appropriate stress test to the audience is very im... by Crossing Thin Ice

18 min listen

Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance: This podcast is a challenge for you to consider something that is likely not yet on your risk register. Could the spread of bacteria with resistance to antibiotics have an impact on your business plans? We provide some questions that you might as... by Crossing Thin Ice

18 min listen

Solar Storms: Emerging risks play a key role in risk analysis. One such emerging risk, Solar Storms, is much more than just pretty northern lights. An impactful solar storm happened as recently as 1859. Then, some problems with telegraph wires were reported, j... by Crossing Thin Ice

17 min listen

Fear vs. Danger: Fear or Danger is a false choice. But using rational thought to balance fear and danger, and find an appropriate response, is very difficult. This repeatable process for thinking through how to react can improve your likelihood of success. Risk I... by Crossing Thin Ice

24 min listen

Using Risk Appetite: Contrarian Views: It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the last investor in does poorly. Long periods of stimulus provide warning that economic cycles come to an ... by Crossing Thin Ice

15 min listen

Why Insurers Do ERM: Enterprise Risk Management is practiced in different ways by insurers. Some focus on the basics while others consider ERM as a strategic strength. In a recent survey, ARM asked what is most important to them about ERM. by Crossing Thin Ice

21 min listen

Cascadia Earthquake: When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. By Max Rudolph by Crossing Thin Ice

17 min listen

Telling Your ERM Story to Rating Agency: There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital and the ERM Journey. Usually there isn’t enough time to tell the the ratings analyst all four chapte... by Crossing Thin Ice

16 min listen

Concentration: Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tactical methods to mitigate these risks. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. by Crossing Thin Ice

23 min listen

Six Futures for ERM: Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities m... by Crossing Thin Ice

21 min listen

Super Volcano: A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar event... by Crossing Thin Ice

17 min listen

After COVID: Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they a... by Crossing Thin Ice

14 min listen

Interactions between risks: Implications for building scenarios: Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios t... by Crossing Thin Ice

22 min listen

Risk and Capital: Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss... by Crossing Thin Ice

16 min listen

Climate Migration: No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat... by Crossing Thin Ice

15 min listen

Interest Rate RIsk for Insurers: When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. L... by Crossing Thin Ice

22 min listen

Leverage: The Flip Side of Risk Management: It is quite tempting, when interest rates are so very low, to take on debt just because you can. But that might not be the best thing for an organization, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Leverage, or borrowing, can have a major impact... by Crossing Thin Ice

18 min listen

Achieving Resilience: Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important result. By Dave Ingram. by Crossing Thin Ice

19 min listen

Regime Changes lead to New Normal: Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persis... by Crossing Thin Ice

24 min listen

Regime Change - Scenarios: Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part se... by Crossing Thin Ice

23 min listen

Dangerous Risks 2024: Return to Normal Concerns: The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic. The top 4 risks are the same as those seen in 2019. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph. by Crossing Thin Ice

23 min listen

RiskMaster Cheat Code: Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer? The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for s... by Crossing Thin Ice

21 min listen

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Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023

Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023

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