6 min listen
Protect Yourself from Roller Coaster Inflation Worries!
Protect Yourself from Roller Coaster Inflation Worries!
ratings:
Length:
9 minutes
Released:
Nov 14, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode
Description
Is inflation pulling back or blowing up into a worldwide financial disaster? The latest CPI report shows that U.S. inflation has come down substantially, but just a week before that, the Fed hiked short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percent in its battle against high prices. The CPI report is now changing what some economists believe the Fed will or should do next. But inflation is also a worldwide problem and some doom and gloom economists are worried about the possibility of “global hyperinflation.” Let’s take a look at a hedge fund warning and how real estate can protect you from this kind of uncertainty.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. First, the October CPI shows a lower-than-expected .4% increase in consumer prices. That brings the annual rate down from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October. (1) It’s still too high but as economist Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics said in a CNBC report: “At least it’s a move in the right direction.” The report triggered a huge stock market rally right after that report, with the Dow closing up more than 1,000 points. There’s also a lot of talk about how inflation is much lower than it appears, because the inflation reports use lagging data.After the CPI report, Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC that “inflation is basically over” and the Fed is getting it wrong because it’s not using up-to-date information, including data on the housing market. (2) He says there’s already a decline in both home and rent prices and believes the Fed isn’t taking that into consideration. When asked when the Fed should have stopped implementing aggressive rate hikes, Siegel says like “yesterday.”He says the Fed still has time to take its foot off the brake at the December meeting. Any decisions at that meeting will also be influenced by the “next” CPI report for November, which will be released just ahead of that meeting.Is the World on the Verge of Hyperinflation?Meantime, one of the world’s largest hedge funds recently sent letters to clients, warning them that the world could be on the verge of hyperinflation. That’s when the value of your money disappears rapidly and the cost of goods changes so quickly that stores want you to ask for the price. As reported by the Financial Times, the Florida-based Ellio Fund says we are in an “extremely challenging” situation and possibly the worst since World War II. Ellio was founded by billionaire Paul Singer and manages more than $50 billion in assets. (3)In the letter it sent to clients, the firm said that “investors should not assume they have seen everything” because they have experienced other financial crises, like the dotcom bust or the 2008 financial crisis. It says that today’s situation is the culmination of an extreme set of financial scenarios at the end of a long period of cheap money, and that hyperinflation is a very real possibility that could cause a “global societal collapse and civil or international strife.” There’s no guarantee this will happen, but the hedge fund says that we are currently headed in that direction. Elliot suggests that the stock markets will fall further, possibly as much as 50% from their peak. According to the Financial Times, the hedge fund is currently up 6.4% this year, and has only lost money in two calendar years since its launch in 1977. Fund managers named a few of the bigger financial risks it sees in the road ahead. They include potential bank losses on bridge financing, potential markdowns on collateralized loan obligations, and losses from leveraged private equity. Global Rates of InflationSo how does U.S. inflation compare to other countries?The Consumer Price Index topped 9% in June, which is the highest it’s been in 40 years, but it has fallen slightly since then, to 8.5% in July and 8.2% in September. For comparison, let’s take a look at a list of countries and their rates of inflation on the Tr
Released:
Nov 14, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode
Titles in the series (100)
The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation Rate Rises, Home Equity Surges, and “The House that SHE Built” by Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast