EP251 - 2021 Annual Predictions 2020 Recap – Predictions made on episode 204 2020 Predictions Recap Scot Shopify wilts a bit – new competition comes out with different angles (marketcap stays static) – No Fedex does something drastic – buy eBay? Merge with Alibaba? No (but shoprunner for 0.5) The year of returns – “happy returns” – a startup raises $100M+ in space. No (but 0.5 for year of returns) Mallageddon continues At least another 8k stores Yes 8721 stores +1 Google gets aggressive in ecommerce Yes +1 (Bill Ready, etc…) Score 3/5 Jason Walmart – growth slows due to completion of grocery build out. Marc Lore leaves Walmart. No on growth, yes on Marc Lore (0.5) Amazon – Opens affordable grocery concept. Digital grocery wars heat up. Yes Owned brands continue to grow. 5% of retail in 2019, could be 8-10% in 2020 (as measured by IRI, for CPG private label). Yes Installment Payments heat up – At least one company is acquired (Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, QuadPay, Sizzle) Yes (IPO’s) Digital in-store heats up, QR codes make a comeback Yes Score 4.5/5 2021 Predictions Jason: Made to Order apparel business > 9 figures Retailer offers viable health alt insurance option to consumers Grocery E-Com > 10%  someone deploys(not pilots) MFC Amazon Shopify Competitor (shipping solution) Retail Media > $20B Bonus – More store closures in 2021 than 2020. Scot: Amazon move to same day prime by opening a huge wave of neighborhood DCs (near DSPs) Shipping (Shopify) – launch own DSP Shopify marketplace  ‘zero friction addiction’ sticks – I’ve seen 30-40% repeated a lot, I think it’s 60-80%. commerce penetration says at 16% or better in 2021. spac/ipo? Dnvb wave Bonus: post-covid anti-consumerism/materialism wave Don’t forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 251 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 21st, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 251 being recorded on Thursday January 21st 2021 that’s a lot of twenty ones I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:42] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners. It’s our annual tradition here at the Jason Scott show put out some predictions it’s a little bit of a Jason versus Scott competition to see which of us is best at predicting the trends, and the future of retail e-commerce and payments. [1:01] If you’ve been following us for a while way back in episode 204 that’s when we made our predictions for 2020 we did that in I believe January of 2020 just like we’re doing here in 2021. And way back then we combined an annual recap and then we did our predictions and that show was six hours, so being why is podcasters we decided that’s a lot of Jason Scott to just in one sitting so, good news we have split it up this year so last week we did the annual recap and then this year that frees us up to do the predictions. So what we like to do here is go through our predictions and score how we did so that’ll be the first half of this episode, and then to make it fun we like to read each other’s predictions and see how the other person did and then try to do a, yeah a negotiation I guess I would call it yeah so we try to come to terms with some kind of a scoring it’s always hard is. Use a bit Jason so bad try to try to sandbag a little bit so we’ll see if that works out this year. Jason anything you want to add before we jump into it. Jason: [2:18] No I want this to be one of my favorite shows of the year but as you alluded to I generally get shellacked so bad that it starts out fun for me and by the end I’m just totally depres