EP204 - 2020 Annual Predictions 2019 Recap - Predictions made on episode 159 Scot At least 5k more store closures in 2019. Yes.  9,300 US store closures per Coresight. Amazon – Prof Galloway is big on Amazon having to create a AWS spinoff and has moderated that to tracking stock. I’m going to predict Amazon doesn’t do either of those things. But this WILL be the year they break ads out. Yes. Galloway was wrong. eBay/Alibaba – I think this is the year when they both need to do something big and the stars are aligning for a combination there. Nope.  Shopify gets acquired by one of the big ad-based companies (facebook/google most likely) Nope. Walmart stumbles in e-commerce. Nope Score 2/5 Jason Amazon store count exceeds 1000 stores Nope.  571 Amazon Stores 22 Book 15 4-Star 8 Pop-ups 25 Go 2 liquor 499 Whole Foods Walmart buys a last mile firm Nope Another big  bankruptcy (going to be a tougher than expected year, JCP, category killers Office, BBBY, Neiman). Yep (Payless ShoeSource, Destination Maternity Shopko,Forever 21, ShopKo, Gymboree, Things Remembered, Charlotte Russe, Diesel, Z Gallerie, Charming Charlie, Barneys, Sugarfina, etc ...) Mobile commerce revenue passes Desktop – Aided by PWA’s, and payment API’s we see mobile gap narrow. Nope.  60/35/5 Desktop/Mobile/Tablet Nov-Dec via Adobe. Fads (Voice Commerce, Customer facing AI, SocialCommerce, VR BlockChain). Yes BONUS: Amazon breaks out prime revenue (No) Score 2/5 An epic fail for Jason & Scot! It turns out the future is difficult to see (and our case the timing is also tough). 2020 Predictions Scot Shopify wilts a bit - new competition comes out with different angles (marketcap stays static) Fedex does something drastic - buy eBay? Merge with Alibaba? The year of returns - “happy returns” - a startup raises $100M+ in space. Mallageddon continues At least another 8k stores Google gets aggressive in ecommerce 10% traffic to ‘shopping actions’ buy ebay/fedex Jason Walmart - growth slows due to completion of grocery build out. Marc Lore leaves Walmart. Amazon - Opens affordable grocery concept. Digital grocery wars heat up. Owned brands continue to grow. 5% of retail in 2019, could be 8-10% in 2020 (as measured by IRI, for CPG private label). Installment Payments heat up - At least one company is acquired (Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, QuadPay, Sizzle) Digital in-store heats up, QR codes make a comeback Bonus:  Cashier-less stores (Amazon Go), blockchain, 5G, big data, and personalization won’t have a significant impact on retail. No DNVB will break out. No major retail anti-trust actions in US. Brick & Mortar Marketplaces won’t take off (Showfields, Neighborhood Goods, B8ta). Shopify won’t compete with Amazon.   Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 204 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 2nd, 2020. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. http://jasonandscot.com Google Automated Transcription of the show Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode at 204 being recorded on Thursday January 2nd 2020 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners will Jason happy New Year happy new decade hope you had a really good last decade and I hope you had a good holiday. Jason: [0:53] I did Happy New Year to you. I'm with you on that new decade but they're you know there's some controversy about whether it is a new decade or not. Scot: [1:01] Yeah I don't believe that it's a it's a 10 plus one problem we'll just to sweep sweep past. Jason: [1:07] Yeah it's the twenties as far as I'm concerned so. Yes but it has a