The Decision Paradigm: An approach to better choices

By Derek Flint

Decisions, decisions, decisions… Throughout history, people have had to step up to the plate, and make tough decisions. Sometimes they have had time to plan, but often they have had to act spontaneously, knowing that the choices they make there and then are quite likely to be sifted over for months and years after should the outcome be ‘wrong’. In today’s litigious, ‘trial by media’ society, it is little wonder that people are less willing to put themselves in the firing line. But what if there was a better way? The Decision Paradigm gives an insight into that world. Using a step-by-step approach, the ‘Problem Oriented Decision System’ (PODS) leads to better problem analysis and provides a clear, evidence-based approach which enables the user to explain how they came to make the choice they did, and not just why? The Decision Paradigm is an essential handbook for anyone in the public or private sector who needs to take their organisation forward with accountable decision making.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Austin Macauley Publishers
• Release date: Mar 3, 2023
• ISBN: 9781398413467

Derek Flint

Derek Flint enjoyed a long career as a senior police officer, working in a diverse range of specialisms from Armed Policing to Public Relations. He went on to work on entrepreneurial projects in the private sector and today practices as an executive coach and training specialist. He is a Lecturer in Policing at the University of Central Lancashire’s School of Justice, working on the degree programmes for student officers. He is married to Jacqui, has two grown up children and lives in Lancashire where he indulges in his passion for sports cars, carbon fibre bicycles and the beauty of the countryside.

Book preview

The Decision Paradigm

An approach to

better choices

Derek Flint

Austin Macauley Publishers

The Decision Paradigm

About the Author

Dedication

Copyright Information ©

Acknowledgement

1. Why Decision-Making Matters

2. Decision Inertia

3. Empowerment. Setting Your People Free

4. Mission Statements, Visions, Values and Ethics

5. A Model for Decision-Making

6. What Do We Know?

7. Threats and Risk

8. Strategy to Achieve

9. Legal and Policy

10. Options

11. Testing the Option

12. Do It!

13. Assess and Review

14. Using PODS as a Coaching Tool

15. Closing the Circle

References

About the Author

Derek Flint enjoyed a long career as a senior police officer, working in a diverse range of specialisms from Armed Policing to Public Relations. He went on to work on entrepreneurial projects in the private sector and today practices as an executive coach and training specialist. He is a Lecturer in Policing at the University of Central Lancashire’s School of Justice, working on the degree programmes for student officers. He is married to Jacqui, has two grown up children and lives in Lancashire where he indulges in his passion for sports cars, carbon fibre bicycles and the beauty of the countryside.

Dedication

To Jacqui, you give me more strength than you may ever truly know.

Copyright Information ©

Derek Flint 2023

The right of Derek Flint to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by the author in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers.

Any person who commits any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library.

ISBN 9781398413450 (Paperback)

ISBN 9781398413467 (ePub e-book)

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First Published 2023

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Acknowledgement

This book wouldn’t have been written had I not taken the decision to walk through the Gates of Lancashire Constabulary in 1990, and then more lately those of the Isle of Man Constabulary some eight years hence. As an officer of slowly increasing rank, I learned so much about accountability and scrutiny from that career, it compelled me to develop some of the techniques learned into a decision-making model fit for the wider world. In particular, mention has to go to the Firearms Command training teams in West Mercia, Kent, South Wales and South Yorkshire Police. You crafted me, and many others into better decision makers than we might ever otherwise have been!

1

Why Decision-Making Matters

Fig 1 Definition of ‘decision’

On 15 April 1989, David Duckenfield went to work. He was a recently promoted Chief Superintendent, one of the highest ranks in British policing. Attainment of that sort of position takes many years, and throughout the journey, many different experiences are had, and are learned from. One experience Duckenfield hadn’t had, was that of modern training on how to command a sell-out football match.

By the end of that day, 94 people had died and 766 had been injured at the FA Cup semi-final between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest. Another three would later succumb to their injuries. It was an unimaginable tragedy, played out live on the nation’s television sets and remains the worst disaster in the British sporting calendar. What followed was thirty years of inquests, inquiries and eventually a trial of Duckenfield for Manslaughter. (Conn, 2019) Duckenfield retired from the service in 1991 but spent the next 28 years under intense scrutiny. It wasn’t until he was found ‘not guilty’ at a second trial after the first jury failed to reach a verdict, that the now 74-year-old could be reasonably sure he wasn’t going to be imprisoned for what happened on that day.

On 22 July 2005, Cressida Dick went to work. She held the rank of Commander in the Metropolitan Police Service. Commander is a rank unique to ‘The Met’, reflecting its scope and scale of over 30,000 police officers. It is a rank above Chief Superintendent, and those that hold it are often set for promotion to Chief Officer positions. On 22 July, Dick was operating as Gold Commander in the aftermath of the London Bombings of 7 July 2005, which claimed the lives of 56 people. (Unattributed, 2005) She was leading the operation to track down further suspects at a time of huge national tensions. The scope and scale of the attacks had caught the United Kingdom on the back foot, having experienced nothing of this magnitude even during the protracted ‘Troubles’ in Northern Ireland, which had brought overt terrorism directly to the streets of England as part of the IRA campaign. (Dorney, 2015) Part of that operation involved the deployment of armed surveillance teams.

Police operations of this type are complex, fast-moving and multi-dimensional. The flow of information and intelligence is relentless, and critical decisions must be made rapidly. On this day, the operation directly under Dick’s command resulted in the death of Jean Charles De Menenez. He was shot by specialist armed officers, in the carriage of a train at Stockwell Tube Station. Within just a few hours, it was apparent that De Menenez was in fact just a Brazilian national who had overstayed his visa. He was a totally innocent, unconnected victim. (Hughes, 2008)

It will come as no surprise that the incident has been the subject of thousands of column inches, inquiries, inquests and debates – just like Hillsborough. Both incidents were a consequence of decisions taken in rapidly developing situations. But that is where the similarities end. David Duckenfield spent nearly as long as he had served in the police awaiting an outcome. In stark contrast, Cressida Dick’s life took a very different direction. She was exonerated of any personal blame within a short period of time. Soon after she was promoted to Deputy Assistant Commissioner, and completed her service as an Assistant Commissioner in 2015. Then, in 2017, she re-joined policing as Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police – the highest office in the UK police service. (Anon., 2020).

In both these tragic cases, lives were lost as agents of the state did their jobs. Subsequent investigations – the gift of hindsight we all have, identified errors and omissions in both the operations on the day and the subsequent actions. But why should there be two very different outcomes for those where the buck stopped well and truly at their door? The answer lies in two discrete areas; practice at the time, and writing things down. In 1989, policing was a much less sophisticated animal. Decisions would be made, with little recorded by way of deep rationale. Things just tended to happen, with very little evidence base. There was also a general acceptance that if you wore rank, you knew what you were doing. This was despite a service which in reality provided very little in the way of effective command and leadership development.

Record-keeping was also ‘sketchy’. It was a starkly different control room in which Cressida Dick operated sixteen years later. A loggist diligently wrote down every decision that was being made (Casciani, 2007) and the commanders would make their decisions against a cyclical model, setting out a clear rationale for each action taken. The difference is clear; Dick was, by submission of her command logs, and being able to refer to them at subsequent hearings, able to recall and articulate what led her to a particular decision. Only by the lack of sophistication at the time, was Duckenfield denied that safety net.

There is, of course, one other differentiator; Dick was trained to command. Duckenfield wasn’t. Operational competence is a significant factor in freeing up cerebral capacity. Had there been a trained match commander in place at Hillsborough, the outcome that day may well have been different. Conversely, training and competence still led to a loss of life at Stockwell. The difference was the depth to which the decision-making that led to it could be fleshed out with detail. That only comes with practice.

Both of these brief case studies tease out some important key points within decision-making;

Competence Is Crucial

Being a competent decision-maker doesn’t just happen. The first component has to be a degree of competence in the subject matter. Whether it is being versed in the science of commanding a football match, or an armed policing operation that is no different to understanding how a power station works, or the way your company produces widgets. Once that competence exists, any person can be trained to become a competent decision-maker.

Practice Makes Perfect

Decision-making can be practised anywhere once the model in this book is understood. Whether it is strategic or tactical, at work or at home, practising the cycle makes you better at what you do.

Decisions Can Go Wrong, Even If They Aren’t ‘Wrong’

Right from the outset of this book, it is essential for readers to understand that some decisions will result in adverse outcomes. In the most extreme cases, they may cost lives. We will look in detail at risk in subsequent chapters, and why it must always be at the forefront of our thinking whatever the scenario. Whereas most of us won’t be dealing with dangerous incidents, our decisions could easily affect the bottom line at our place of work and as a result, leave it in danger of collapse. But even if the outcome is one of poor consequences, it doesn’t mean the decisions were necessarily wrong. A sound, recorded process enables us to ‘show our working out’ to anyone who may inquire.

If It Isn’t Written Down, It Didn’t Happen

It is a literal translation, but if your decision is challenged, how will you evidence your actions? It could equally be an audio record – like a cockpit voice recorder, but it is important that you are able to refer to something of substance, made at or near the time. Having that record makes things an awful lot easier whether explaining to your boss or gripping the rail in Court.

Assume Nothing, Believe No One, Check Everything

In UK armed policing operations, commanders are supported by trained and accredited tactical advisors. The definitive guidance on how those operations are prosecuted is found in Authorised Professional Practice (APP) – Armed Policing, which is published by the College of Policing. It carries a very important caveat;

The responsibility for the validity and reliability of the advice lies with the advisor, but the responsibility for the use of that advice rests with the commander.

(College of Policing, 2014)

Where there are qualified individuals in support it is reasonably safe to assume that the information that is being provided is accurate. However, as was found in the case of the Gulf War, people who wish a particular course of action to be followed may not be averse to ‘sexing up’ intelligence. (Day, 2003). It is important to put in place your own checks and balances to assure yourself that you aren’t being led up a garden path.

Ultimately, when you make a decision, the buck will stop there. That can be daunting, but shouldn’t prevent you from stepping up to the plate. Over the following chapters, we will seek to build that confidence. The reason we need sound decision-makers at all levels is pretty straightforward;

If You Are the Boss, It Gives People Confidence in You

As a ‘senior middle manager’, there are few things more frustrating than having to send a decision ‘upstairs’. That can be because of ‘control freakery’ in the c-suite, archaic protocols which mean it has always been that way, or perhaps even