Crisis Management: A Guidebook

By Anthony J. Asquith

"What happens to an economy when a war occurs in a local town or village?" The original purpose of the book explored how war severed the economy from society and sought to identify potential solutions. Research for the book advanced into three rationales. The first rationale explored deterrence theory literature and intrastate conflict phenomena and literature. The second rationale contributed to the intrastate conflict scientific body of knowledge. The third rationale established a foreign policy to fill a knowledge gap in understanding. This guidebook contributes to fixing the intelligence blueprint for the 9/11 wars.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Page Publishing, Inc.
• Release date: Jan 18, 2022
• ISBN: 9781662440878

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Crisis Management

A Guidebook

Anthony J. Asquith, Jr.

Copyright © 2021 Anthony J. Asquith, Jr.

All rights reserved

First Edition

PAGE PUBLISHING

Conneaut Lake, PA

Originally published by Page Publishing 2021

ISBN 978-1-6624-4086-1 (paperback)

ISBN 978-1-6624-4087-8 (digital)

Printed in the United States of America

Table of Contents

Chapter 1

The Rule of Law and Deterrence Theory

Chapter 2

Reflections on Worldly Affairs, 2001-2021

Chapter 3

Research Design

Chapter 4

Codebook

Chapter 5

Results

Chapter 6

American Foreign Policy for Concluding the Iraq War First

Chapter 7

The Rationality Approach

Executive Summary

Crisis Management is a guidebook to fixing the intelligence blueprint for the 9/11 wars. Assembly of the theory for this project occurred in the fall of 2021. Synthesis of the theory, hypotheses, data and methodology, results and the policy and implications into a book format started in January 2017. Transition from scientific inquiry to synthesis and publication occurred in this interim. Scientific inquiry occurred from fall 2013 through spring 2016. Scientific inquiry includes advanced research methods and hypothesis testing in a controlled university environment. The official starting point for formal processes of discovery is fall 2013. Informal processes for starting the research can be observed as early as fall 2003.

Events generate information that applies to different periods along the timeline and contributes to a satisfactory resolution to a challenging puzzle. Creating a policy within a duration spell becomes a matter of managing overwhelming and underwhelming forces that percolate from the left and the right, push and pull the policy scientist in different directions, figuratively fall out of the sky and motivate the conditions for the ground to crumble from beneath one's feet. Based on criteria provided by knowledgeable persons of policy science, the end point of the formal process is eight academic years. This means that substantial performance via first draft transmission for this publication project to a knowledgeable policy scientist is complete as of July 31, 2021. The force majeure event of Coronavirus that effected people throughout the world extended the duration for a reasonable period for full performance of the publication of this book project.

Preface

The student asked Professor Walter Block in a brief conversation that lasted no more than a couple of minutes at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, during an academic conference in the early spring of 2004. The student's inquiries started to take shape the previous fall semester while in attendance at a Provocative Lecture Series Session hosted by the department of economics in the Tower Auditorium at San Jose State University. The student listened attentively to the same professor lecture on free market economics in the Austrian tradition. The professor responded, It stops. This guidebook is primarily aimed at individuals engaged in public service, policy makers, academics in institutions of higher learning, business professionals, and graduate and undergraduate students. Sophisticated readers with interests involving current affairs could benefit from the book also.

Evan Perez, a national security correspondent for CNN, moderated a question and answer discussion and presentation at the Aspen Institute with Army LTG Michael Flynn that was posted to YouTube July 28, 2014. The YouTube presentation remained undiscovered by the author until approximately April 2022. Defense Intelligence Agency Director Flynn referenced a work the agency engaged entitled Fixing The Intel Blueprint For Afghanistan. The first published draft of Crisis Management occurred in November 2021. A book revision occurred in April 2022 and facilitated the author's pursuit of due diligence in the creation of the foreign policy in the book. This final draft contains seven chapters and completes the refining process of discovery, integration and application.

How does the foreign threat picture as outlined by LTG Michael Flynn, and the Defense Intelligence Agency intersect domestically with American values, interests and ideations? The rule of law ensures the preservation of democratic institutions and protections of an individual's rights. Politics, economics, and social traditions and culture shape the values, interests and ideations of individual citizens. LTG Flynn emphasized the importance of agility, adaptability, transparency, trust, and accountability in this process. LTG Flynn and DIA's emphasis on these five characteristics highlighted important aspects of the process for meeting the challenges to energy, food and drinking water access for individuals within America's domestic system of governance and international allies across the globe.

Although Crisis Management contains a foreign policy for application to the 9/11 wars using Iraq as a template, two institutions with great influence in American life are the independent judiciary and the Federal Reserve Bank. Starting points for understanding the law and economics relationship include Ronald Coase's work The Firm, The Market, And The Law, and David Friedman's The Law's Order What Economics Has To Do With Law And Why It Matters. Additionally, Shawn J. Bayern's article The Formal Limits of Economics in Tort Law The Puzzle of Negligence, and Justin Sevier's course on Torts in the Juris Master program at Florida State University are tremendously helpful contributions to understanding Coase's Theorem and beyond. The Federal Reserve Bank shapes the ideations, interests and values in part by increasing and decreasing rates of interest for borrowing money which effects the level of employment and the level of inflation in the economy. The rate of interest is the cost that producers and consumers pay to borrow money for goods and services. The Federal Reserve Bank and the FED's mission statement are discussed in this preface to ensure that the material content of the book is integral to subfields international political economy and policy science.

Chapter 1 framed the discussion according to three levels of analysis. Deterrence theory is identified and analyzed within the international system. An independent judiciary stabilizes the internal governance apparatus by addressing grievances at the state level and below the state level through court rulings. Chapter 2 is a survey of the literature and contains mediation, aid, peace agreement and civil liberties hypotheses. Chapter 3 is a research note consisting of the very first hypothesis considered upon initiating the formal research and seeks to determine whether to employ peacekeeping operations in Iraq. Chapter 4 is a codebook for testing variables in the hypotheses. All of the results related to the logistic regression, ordinary least squares, competing risk hazard model and ordered logistic regressions that test the hypotheses from the survey chapter can be viewed in Chapter 5. These results support and encourage decision makers to adopt the American foreign policy in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 identifies microeconomic assumptions as a starting point for identifying economic grievances in civil war and discusses the opium contraband, terrorism and strategic messaging to counter and undermine rebel organizations before pivoting toward a comparison of the total battle related deaths variable as a measurement of the death tolls of the Taiping Rebellion in China and the Civil War in the United States.

The book provides for theoretical foundations in international relations of structural realism, offensive realism and balancing in the international system. Thomas Schelling contributed to the modern understanding of the structure of anarchy in the international system and the issuance of threats by states to other states that compose the international system. John Mearsheimer built the concept of offensive realism in the anarchic international system around states seeking to achieve hegemony. Kenneth Waltz's theory of international relations focuses on causality and balance that is achieved in anarchy through distribution of material capabilities and military capabilities to deter undesirable behavior by states in the international system of states.

The discussion that follows in Chapter 2 is a survey of the literature to establish the five hypotheses for the project. Dependent variables in the hypotheses include mediation, population, peace agreements, civil liberties and peacekeeping operations. Independent variables in the hypotheses include war duration, aid and political rights. Armed conflict is an independent variable for peace agreements and peacekeeping operations. Methodology includes logistic regression, the competing risk hazard model, ordinary least squares and ordered logistic regression.

Peacekeeping operations is the dependent variable under observation in the regression models in Chapter 3. Intensity is an element of armed conflict. Armed conflict is the independent variable. Coding for the project started with a review of the peacekeeping operations variable in 2014. The peacekeeping operations variable was included with the data in the American Political Science Association dataset from the years 1975 to 2011. Data for the mediation, aid, and peace agreements variables is used as part of the first data set and discussed in a portion of the research to determine whether a larger study is needed. Logistic regression is used to test the peacekeeping operation hypothesis.

Observations are a building block for data and defined by criteria from a codebook in Chapter 4. Information management requires individuals to manage data. Chaos management is the management of information. Crisis management is the management of chaos. Data sets are a collection of objective observations over a duration of time. Information is a building block of power. Power is required to secure a place in the international system.

Results from hypothesis tests can be reviewed in Chapter 5. The first hypothesis included mediation as a dependent variable and duration of war as an independent variable. Logistic regression is used to test the first hypothesis. The competing risk hazard model does not test a hypothesis and contributes to the methodological use of mediation to impact the likelihood of conflict onset. The results from this model show the survivability of a mediated event occurring as better than fifty percent. The second hypothesis included population as a dependent variable and aid as an independent variable. A hypothesis that included terror incidences as an independent variable is excluded. However, findings for the ordinary least squares regressions in the second hypothesis are included in Table 3 and include aid and terror incidences. The third hypothesis included peace agreement as a dependent variable and armed conflict as an independent variable. Logistic regression is used to test the third hypothesis. The impact of mediation on intra-state conflict reduces the likelihood of civil war onset and lends support for the adoption of the foreign policy. The fourth hypothesis included civil liberties as a dependent variable and political rights as an independent variable. Ordered logistic regression is used to test the fourth hypothesis. Findings from the fourth hypothesis show that decreasing polity of government can increase political rights and thus increase civil liberties.

The New York Times reported on November 28, 1989, that the State Department, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of Defense, and affiliated agencies interfered at that time with civilians that formulate policy for strategic decision makers in the government. Each department and bureau specialize in the advancement of agency objectives. Ordinarily, Department of State advanced American values overseas, the Federal Bureau of Investigation prosecuted violence occurring from white collar crime, and the Department of Defense defended the country against all enemies.

Rational actors define a set of preferences and the ability to choose an option from a set of alternatives that maximize utility for achieving objectives. Rebel organizations prioritize the set of alternatives in the use of violence according to the five w's in Chapter 7. Rebel organizations develop preferences from a set of alternatives to commit acts of violence against a population, the government or both. Rebel organizations select any number of alternatives to intimidate, coerce, and compel a population, the government or both through force, to increase the power of the organization in armed conflict. Rebel organizations use hoaxes, bombings, shootings, hijackings, kidnappings, and other actions to force populations and government to capitulate and change policies that are more favorable to extremists.

Abstracts have been removed from the beginning of each chapter and placed in this preface. This edit is performed to ensure the fluidity in the application of the policy process. Additionally, all citations found in the footnotes are cited in the references and codebooks and user manuals at the end of each chapter. Credits and Captions for the graphs, tables, figures, maps and appendix are included at the end of each individual chapter also.

Keywords: Deterrence, Strategic Counter Messaging, Conflict Termination, Collective Security Agreements, World Politics

Chapter 1

The Rule of Law and Deterrence Theory

First, causality, according to Sebastian Rosato (2003), can be defined as state A performing action X to affect action Y by state B. The causal and dyadic relationship between state A and state B is the foundation for a structure of an anarchic and violent international system of states. States build security alliances to reduce the impact of threats made by opposing states and reduce the violence and damage that occurs during conflict. The science behind this causal mechanism is the measurement of state A's impact on state B and the measurement of the effect of state B as a result of state A's action. Causal mechanisms are critically important in the scientific study of anarchy in the international system. In fact, causality is the preeminent and underlying basis for the study of the structure of anarchy and the dyadic study of states interacting in anarchy within the international system. A state's distribution of material capabilities and military capabilities in response to adversarial and allied states issuing threats can create balance among allies engaged in collective security arrangements.¹

Second, policy is paradoxical. This characteristic should be distinguished from causality because policy science should not be considered part of the discussion that proceeds into international relations theory. Policy science involves process(es) construction occurring internally within a state. Policies embody a state's internal interests, values and ideas, announced by a governing body and do not produce balance in the anarchic and violent international system of states. Policies, according to Kenneth Waltz (1979), are constructed from reductionist theories. Reductionist theories do not contain causal mechanisms. Policy scientist Peter DeLeon (1994) echoed a similar sentiment in defining policy construction as incoherent because