Color Revolutions: Techniques in Breaking Down Modern Political Regimes

By Andrei Manoilo and Oleg Karpovich

The monograph is devoted to the analysis of the problems associated with the dismantling of the political regimes in modern states (both authoritarian and democratic type) and with the role of technology in the process of color revolutions.

• Language: English
• Publisher: AuthorHouse
• Release date: Feb 20, 2015
• ISBN: 9781496970190

Andrei Manoilo

Oleg Karpovich, a doctor of law science, a doctor of political science, professor, the head of the Department on Comparative Studies of the Institute for USA and Canada studies, Russian Academy of Science. The author of a number of publications on the international relations, international law, criminal law of the Russian Federation. The chief editor of Geopolitics magazine. Andrei Manoilo, a doctor of political science, professor of department on Russian politics of Moscow State University. A member of consulting council before the Council on Security of the Russian Federation.

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COLOR REVOLUTIONS:

Techniques in Breaking Down Modern Political Regimes

Oleg Karpovich;

Andrei Manoilo

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2015 Oleg Karpovich; Andrei Manoilo. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

Published by AuthorHouse 02/11/2015

ISBN: 978-1-4969-7018-3 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-4969-6953-8 (hc)

ISBN: 978-1-4969-7019-0 (e)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2015902400

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Contents

Introduction

SECTION I. World Politics and International Relations in the Emerging Multipolar World

1.1. Global Problems of International Relations in the Context of the Emerging Multipolar World

1.2. Strategy of Controlled Chaos in the Conditions of Chaos in International Relations: Myth or Reality?

1.3. Actual Aspects of the New World Order on the Platform of the Russian Model of the Noosphere Policy

SECTION II. New Challenges and International Security Threats

2.1. Geopolitical Picture of the Modern World in the Context of Growing Instability

2.2. Separatism: World Experience and Russian Realities

2.3. Color Revolutions and the Problems of Dismantling the Political Regimes in a Changing World

2.4. Syrian Vector of Color Revolutions

Conclusion

Bibliography

INTRODUCTION

The monograph is devoted to the analysis of the problems associated with the dismantling of the political regimes in modern states (both authoritarian and democratic type), and with the role of technology in the process of color revolutions. The problems with dismantling of political regimes and the problems associated with the color revolutions in modern conditions become extremely severe and urgent. This is not only due to the fact that the events in Ukraine, if looked at in detail, repeat the exact scenario of the color revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East, known as the Arab Spring, in particular, the revolution in Egypt, which indicates no coincidence in the event data. The reason is that instead of the traditional dismantling tools that are familiar to the world community comes a new generation of more delicate instruments that combine power methods of influence with technologies of manipulative control of mass consciousness and mass behavior of the broad masses of the civilian population.

It should be noted that in the history of the world, there have always been problems with the dismantling of political regimes. Before, instruments of such dismantling tools were mostly violent methods in the classical sense, applied in armed coups, local armed conflicts, civil wars, and military interventions. The international community was able to develop effective methods to counter this threat and to create effective mechanisms of political regulation of these processes, including at the international level. No matter who and how they criticize the UN, the organization operates and its potential and ability to manage the political stability and settlement of international conflicts even in the collapse of the Westphalian system is far from exhausted. The acuteness of the problems that is associated with the threat of military coups in the various countries of the world, does not cease to be relevant and is not removed from the agenda. However, in general, for the world community, this category of threats is familiar and the international community knows how to react to it.

However, today the world is changing, and more subtle technologies of color revolutions are replacing the armed coups technologies. They cleverly disguise as the true revolutionary movements and are virtually unopposed by countries with already well-established democracy and by the Oriental States that have preserved the traditional way of life. Repetition of the scenario of color revolutions in Ukraine is a legitimate concern, since a strong confidence is developing that Ukraine is not the end point of this scenario. It is a bargaining chip in the geopolitical game, where the punch of American directors of color revolutions could be directed at Russia, China, and Kazakhstan.

The reasons for the increased attention to the color revolutions lie in the fact that during the last three years there were coups in a number of countries with completely stable political regimes, which led to full or partial dismantling of the political regimes that for many years successfully resisted external and internal enemies; for example, the Egyptian, Tunisian, Syrian and Libyan regimes successfully resisted Islamism.

There is a striking similarity in the scenarios of regime change in these countries, which can be seen as a pattern or an organizational chart; and it is used for guessing the general features of the so-called velvet revolutions that have destroyed the communist regimes in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

It is unlikely that such a coincidence could be called accidental, since the probability of an exact match of such scenarios of regime changes in countries differ significantly at the level of political organization of power, as well as in terms of socio-economic development, and with the spectrum of unresolved problems, relatively, if not negligibly small.

In this respect, Syria and Libya are radically different from Ukraine and Georgia, but it is not difficult to notice that the revolution of 2014 in Ukraine (which received the name Euro Maidan) is exactly the same as the scenario in the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, including the behaviors of the opposing sides.

All this may indicate that using the example of various countries and regions, we are dealing with the same phenomenon - the result of the application of the color revolution technology. However, despite the bright brand name, there is nothing revolutionary about them. Even today, the Western media says that the color revolutions, which they call the technology operations to export democracy through civil disobedience, are so perfected that their methods have become a guide to changing political regimes ¹. All these arguments together determined the choice of the theme and focus of the study.

The analysis of the role and place of the color revolutions in the transformation of the world political system are presented in the monograph in the context of global changes, which the system of world politics and international relations is experiencing today, including the entire world order as a whole. In this regard, the color revolutions and problems of the forced dismantling of political regimes are well inscribed in the global problems of international relations that shape the global agenda. To create a coherent and complete picture of the processes taking place in the modern world, the monograph presents the results of the analysis of some of the most acute and pressing global problems of international relations, playing the leading role in the formation of a new world order based on the principles of multipolarity, along with the color revolutions.

The authors refer the chaos in international relations and the immersion into the world of controlled chaos to these problems, as well as the fight against web-based forms of international terrorism and political extremism, countering of global production and transit of drugs (and the severity of this problem multiplies in connection with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan), and the managing of international conflicts.

The authors draw attention to the fact that many of these problems are a direct product of short-sighted policies of the Western world leaders, and especially the United States that, with their idealistic desire to build a democratic peace by any means from Tripoli to Kabul and from Belgrade to Astana, have artificially nurtured, educated, consolidated and armed the forces of those, with whom they will have to fight on all continental fronts in the coming decades. The tragedies of the Libyan, Syrian, and the Yugoslav peoples can serve as an example of such a policy, plunged into civil war, as well as the events taking place in Ukraine.

In this study, special attention should be paid to the analysis of the role of the controlled chaos technology, in shaping of the multipolar world and in reformatting of the modern system of international relations, which, in turn, is transforming into a state of anarchy itself, as was noted previously by American constructivists. This context analyzes the actual issues of the formation of the modern world order: the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity. Using the example of a color revolution in Ukraine, which received the name of Euromaid, a new question arises of the principal applicability of the Anglo-Saxon concept of the controlled chaos technology for the dismantling of the political regimes in the Commonwealth of Independent States in the interests of democratization in its North American understanding.

The crisis of the unipolar world clearly requires the nomination of new global alternatives based on restored principles of justice and values of peaceful coexistence. As Foreign Minister S.M. Lavrov rightly pointed out, today the fates of the world cannot define even the most powerful state, nor opposing military-political blocs, as it was during the Cold War, not even a narrow concert of the chosen" countries and centers of global power. The idea is to build a just, democratic and stable, ideally - a self-regulating system of international relations. Russia is playing a leading role in shaping this new just world, acting against the dictates of individual countries, even those with extensive experience in the development of democracy.

Today, Russia really got in the way of the wave of color revolutions and controlled chaos. This is no accident. It is thanks to Russia and its foreign policy that NATO’s military intervention in Syria did not take place; precisely because of the foreign policy of Russia that the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia escaped genocide and got a chance to gain real independence; precisely because of Russia, the people of Crimea escaped the fate of other civilians, murdered by the new Kiev authorities in the Donbass. Russia has a powerful foreign policy potential capable to stop the tide of chaos and channel the energy of the world leaders into re-creation. In this regard, it is appropriate to quote the words of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation S.A. Ryabkov: We have to work using our advantages ... a positive attitude of people to Russia, the absence of prejudice, understanding that our country is an important international power, a source of polycentric and multipolar world order. ²

Thus, Russia has the right to rely on the assistance and collaboration of all progressive forces, interested in maintaining global peace and stability, all who oppose the color revolutions and the chaos that they bring to the world civilization. With view of the above, I would like to quote the words of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov: The philosophy of the joint creative work lays in the basis of our entire foreign policy. We are ready to go far forward in the development of long-term deep-sided cooperation with all that show willingness. ³

SECTION I.

World Politics and International Relations in the Emerging Multipolar World

1.1. GLOBAL PROBLEMS OF

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EMERGING MULTIPOLAR WORLD

The modern world is experiencing an era of global change. The current political reality is increasingly determined by the global political instability, where the world has moved due to the erosion of the Westphalian system. In the background of its disintegration and chaos in international relations is the formation of a new world order based on the principles of multipolarity. ⁴ The system of international relations is becoming increasingly anarchic.⁵ There is a growing crisis of the idea of a democratic peace - the pivotal concept of era of