‘I Believe That the U.S.A. Can Be the Crucial Player’

Protest movements aren’t designed to last forever. And when they do reach their inevitable conclusion, they tend to follow one of two familiar sequences: In one scenario, a protest triggers the resignation of an opposed leader, the reversal of an unpopular policy, or other concessions (think of the successful recent revolutions in Algeria and Sudan). The alternative is that a protest fails—as a result of government repression, splintering within the movement, or a simple loss of momentum (recall the failed uprising against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the dormant “yellow vest” demonstrations in France, and the crumbling prodemocracy movement in Hong Kong).

In Belarus, things could still go either way. For months, the largest anti-government protest in Belarusian history has sought to oust the country’s longtime leader, Alexander Lukashenko. At least four people have been killed in clashes with government security forces and more than 30,000 people have been arrested. Lukashenko, whose disputed claim to victory in the country’s August 9 election has made him an international pariah, has rejected calls to negotiate or hold fresh elections.

But Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya isn’t deterred. From exile in Lithuania, the self-styled leader of democratic Belarus has taken up the presidential mantle, meeting world leaders who greet her as Belarus’s sole legitimate representative. Between the protests and Tsikhanouskaya’s efforts, the prodemocracy movement has elevated the crisis in Belarus to the world stage—winning the