The Last Story? - Mankind and Ai

By Xiao Ming and Mark Xiao

This book discusses the developments of artificial intelligence, information technology, and other advanced technologies, and their profound impact or influence on many aspects of human society. These effects have both a very positive side and a potentially negative side. Human society will change completely, and a new human ecology will be born. This book also discusses the nature of human beings and the evolution of human civilization. It reveals that human selfishness or lust is the fundamental driving force for the development of human society. Therefore, under this driving force, if artificial intelligence is not effectively controlled, its negative impact will be difficult to contain. This book also provides a preliminary discussion on the issues in dealing with the negative effects of artificial intelligence while continuously promoting it.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Lulu.com
• Release date: Apr 4, 2019
• ISBN: 9780359561698

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The Last Story? - Mankind and Ai

The Last Story? – Mankind and AI

Author: Mike M. Xiao

Translator: Mark Xiao

Author Biography

Mike M. Xiao

Businessman in the US; used to be a farmer, worker, fireman, engineer, production manager of steel mill, company executive. EMBA, University of Minnesota, MS in Engineering, Georgia Tech. 

Preface

There is no doubt that artificial intelligence (AI) is the most impactful technological revolution in human history. Previous technological revolutions have revolved around the enhancement of tools, while AI is a transition of society from humans using tools to tools using tools.

The fast-growing modern technology that is centered around AI will, in one or two generations, significantly increase computer’s intelligence. This does not mean that AI will replace humans, but hybrid intelligence will create a new species, whose intelligence will overpower that of traditional humans.

The most fundamental difference between humans and other species is the difference in intelligence. The new species of humans who are more intelligent will bring an end to the biologically and traditionally defined humans. Therefore, whether

AI replaces humans and becomes the main force of production; or

AI upgrades humans into a new kind;

or

3.     AI replaces humans.

No matter which version of the stories occurs, we are entering a Post-Human Era.

It does not matter which version occurs, or how it ends, strategy or comedy, we are departing from the society that we know, and entering a brand, new era of post-mankind.

The age of hunting and gathering was a time when survival depended on nature.

The age of agriculture was a time when humans began to create survival conditions.

The age of industry and technology was a time of the development and revolution of tools.

The age of AI is and will be a time when humans are slowly replaced by machines; machines will learn to use other machines ­­by themselves -- a Post-Mankind Era.

We are bidding farewell to the traditional society where humans are the main forces of production. 

Many have already analyzed and discussed the pros and cons that AI and technological advancement in general will bring to human society. While benefitting humans, the digital development, especially AI, will cause three impacts to humanity that are fundamentally different from those caused by the technological revolutions in the past. The first impact may occur very soon.

The first impact – at one point, the jobs and opportunities that technology will bring to humans will start to go down rather than up, and very drastically as well. New jobs and opportunities belong to machines, not humans. Traditional human jobs will be taken over by machines, or at least will be devalued greatly. (The human substitute has been developing and the process has two phases).

The second impact – technology will change humanity, creating a new species with a hybrid intelligence that transcends the traditional and biological human race, becoming super. Humans will upgrade to supers by upgrading their intelligence.

The third impact – AI will eventually surpass humans and super humans, possibly replacing humans. Even if AI does not replace humans, humans will lose their control in AI, thereby losing control over themselves. The latter can occur more easily as AI does not need to attain complete self-awareness and consciousness for humans to lose controls over themselves. AI only needs to gain the will of survival.

The first impact is closer than most would think. In fact, it has already begun.

I had a casual yet alarming talk with my taxi driver about technology on my way to McCormick Place in Chicago. We talked about the impact Uber had had on the taxi industry, and the near future impact of driverless cars on Uber and on the entire driving industry, including truck drivers and deliverers. It did not stop there. The impact would spread throughout the automobile market, automobile manufacturers, insurance companies, and automobile shops. The driver stopped the car, and he, who was a middle-aged man, someone’s father, helplessly said, yes! I thought these were only going to happen after I retired. The driver’s expression at the moment often appears in my mind.

Three-time Pulitzer Prize-winning Thomas L. Freeman wrote in Thank You For Being Late, [A]s an opinion writer; what is not okay is to have no mind––to stand for nothing, or for everything, or only for easy and safe things. An opinion writer has to emerge from some framework of values that shapes his or her thinking about what should be supported or opposed. Chapter 1 (page 13). Freeman (2016), in his book, seems to hope that more people would discuss AI. Freeman’s words inspired me, which led to this book: a book for the common people about the influence that AI will bring to them, including the positive effects we have seen and are experiencing and the potentially huge negative effects.

This is not a science book, nor is it a technology book, but a discussion about the significant pros and cons that AI will bring to the society. While the people will enjoy the substantial benefits of high technology, they should also take caution in the uncontrollable development of AI and information technology (IT) and prepare themselves accordingly.

There are already countless books and articles that talk about AI, IT, the Internet on a technological standpoint. Entering relevant keywords on search engines will bring million results. From these articles, people can get a general picture of these technologies. Therefore, this book is not meant to discuss the details behind technology, but to focus on AI’s current and future influence on mankind. On another note, at the rate that AI is growing, no author can include all the updates on AI in one book. (There will likely be new AI updates before this book is even published).

For your convenience, I have tried to avoid using technical terminologies in natural science and social science. I have also tried to avoid using labels that might easily mislead people.

One thing that is worth emphasizing: using past or present information, data, or incidents to predict the upcoming, AI-centered technological revolution is dangerous, misleading, and will most likely lead to erroneous conclusions. Technology is currently changing society fundamentally, so any information before and after will present completely different meanings. The first ever nuclear explosion completely reformatted military and war on a global scale. Many previous strategic thoughts about warfare had been completely changed.

Similarly, we cannot simply use our past knowledge and data to analyze the upcoming revolution in technology.

Tilly’s Story

In the morning of December 26th, 2004, people are enjoying their vacation under the sun on Maikhao Beach in Phuket, Thailand. The sound of waves is so relaxing. Suddenly, a ten-year-old girl named Tilly runs towards high ground while yelling Tsunami! Run!

Tilly saw a white line far away on the sea horizon. At the same time, the waves were receding, and foams were appearing, which according to what she learned in school, meant a tsunami was probably coming. Some got up and ran with her, but some did not; they might have even felt displeased with Tilly for interfering with their peaceful morning. Tilly did not need to feel sorry for interfering with their peace, because a few minutes later, a tsunami came. A 9.3 M super earthquake that occurred in the Indian Ocean led to this deadly tsunami. A ten-meter monster swallowed the entire beach along with those who did not run, and two-hundred thousand others on the coast of the Indian Ocean.

There’s a white line on the horizon right now.

But it is not a tsunami, but a much wider and bigger blow to mankind – artificial intelligence. If it is not watched and regulated, it will likely bring a monstrous impact to human society. Like tsunamis that wipe out the coasts that do not take precaution, artificial intelligence will erase humans who are not prepared.

Artificial intelligence will definitely bring immense wealth to society, improve health conditions, increase our lifespan (maybe even bring everlasting life), and provide unlimited convenience. Artificial intelligence will be the greatest invention of mankind thus far. It is the most worshipped product of human technology. But at the same time, if we do not try to control and regulate the development of artificial intelligence and, instead, let it grow freely, artificial intelligence will likely bring danger to our society.

The rise of powerful AI will either be the best or the worst thing ever to happen to humanity. We do not yet know which.

--Stephen Hawking

AI is far more dangerous than nukes.

--Elon Musk

Chapter One - A New Species

An airplane with a unique logo landed in the governmental airport in the capital. A group of people is walking down the airplane and getting in a limo that had been there for a while. The car leaves in a hurry.

An hour later, this group appears in the President’s office. The one in front is the Dean of the National Academy of Sciences. The President and her subordinates have already been waiting.

Madam, as we’ve stated in our report, we did indeed discover a highly intelligent species. –the dean says.

Do you know which planet they came from? –an assistant of the President asked.

They didn’t come from anywhere else in the universe but our very own planet earth. –the dean paused, and said, specifically, from the ground below us.

The dean continued, They vanished a long time ago. This species disappeared almost 130 million years ago. According to our initial analysis, they called themselves human. Before extinction, the civilization they carried, including science, technology, culture, and art was way beyond us. (To avoid confusion, the us in this story represents Ikind, and not human).

A day later, a Board of Inquiry for humans is established. The Chairman is the Dean of the National Academy of Sciences. Different departments and agencies of the government have been asked to assist this board in research, which began instantly upon the board’s establishment.

A year later, the board returns to the President’s office. The president, her assistants, and the board enter the meeting room. The room had already been filled a while ago with governmental officials and societal influencers.

The president says, ladies and gentlemen, we are here to announce the results of our board’s research. Based on humans’ creation, maintenance, and development of their civilization and their sudden disappearance, they are an invaluable reference and example to us, our descendants, and even to our species.

The chairman of the board of inquiry continues, ladies and gentlemen, our search team discovered, by accident, a human library deep underground. This library belonged to their military base that discontinued in the year 2020, but it was not abandoned at the time. Some facilities are still preserved.  The files in the library contained paper and electronic documents, including newspapers, magazines, books, and charts. Many of these documents have corroded and are not recognizable. Perhaps in response to the attack of destructive weapons, some files that were considered by humans to be particularly important are stored in storage facilities that are resistant to chemicals, high temperatures, high pressures and shocks. These files even include information relevant to their society, in the past, and in the future, which is extremely important for our research. We are assuming that someone saved this information because he or she had some sort of premonition of the near future.

"Humans suddenly vanished sometime after the year 2020; we still are not certain about the specific time it happened."

The information we have will help us learn about humans and what happened to them before 2020. We can only presume what happened next; and we need to find more evidence and records to have a more accurate presumption. Just for convenience, we will refer to the few decades before and after 2020 as contemporary mankind".

"What is extraordinary is that human science, technology, culture, and art in 2020 are comparable to what we have now. When they vanished (years after 2020), their technology surpassed ours by far, and their rate of development was a lot faster."

The chairman then introduces several incredible accomplishments by humans.

He then says, according to the human files, 65 million years ago, earth was ruled by a gigantic species known as the dinosaurs, which became extinct suddenly. Humans theorized that the extinction was due to a sudden change in the earth’s atmosphere, greatly lessening sunlight, thereby affecting the process of photosynthesis, which lowered the oxygen level in the atmosphere, causing dust and poisonous gas to emerge and the temperature to drop. And the sudden change in the atmosphere was caused by a collision between an asteroid and earth.

We speculate that 130 million years later, similar to what happened to the dinosaurs, human extinction was also caused by a change in the atmosphere. But the cause of that change was probably not by an asteroid from outer space. The dean looks closely at the audience, then says,

the cause may have been humans themselves.

Impact

The audience starts murmuring and one person asks, if humans were just as intelligent as we (Ikind) are, they should have known that they were in the process of self-destruction. It seems illogical and irrational."

The dean responds, "this is a complicated story. To understand this story, we must know more about human nature, which is the driving force of all human activities. The deepest, most fundamental element of human nature is personal interest; specifically speaking, it is the desire to fulfill oneself.

The humans in 2020 lacked discipline and control, which led to the high-speed, unlimited, and eventually uncontrollable development of human technology, especially AI and IT. These technologies started to impact humans themselves in many ways in which I will discuss in detail later."

The audience asks, why couldn’t have humans established laws and standards that would have been beneficial in the long run, like we do?

The dean states, we, the Ikinds, have united into one entity with one legal system a long time ago. We are controlled by one united will, and under the united will, we act in a way that is beneficial to our kind as a whole. Naturally, the invention and spreading of our technology happens at a slower pace than those of humans because their development resulted from endless competitions. Moreover, our united willpower will never let machines or AI replace our kind.

Humans were not this lucky. Due to many reasons in the past, they were never able to unite. In 2020, there were around 200 self-governing countries and districts. They were sometimes allies, sometimes enemies, and sometimes they even raged wars against each other. Even when they were allies, they still competed for their own benefits. Even though the intense and unlegislated competition between these countries prompted their technology to develop faster than ours, it also hindered any effective collaboration that was necessary. Countries lacked trust, therefore it was hard for them to work together. The wars between them were more destructive even to the entire human race. Of course, war was just one of the possible causes of human extinction (and less possible than the others according to the files we have).

The competitions between countries, especially in military and economy, required everyone to urge technology development in almost every area. No one was even considering laws to limit development. Also, new technologies could undoubtedly benefit mankind, especially in the medical field. It could also increase efficiency and convenience in almost everything. These factors made it hard for humans to draw the line on where to start imposing control. As a result, many companies, out of personal interests and pursuit for the highest ultimate profit, developed AI and other technologies in an uncontrollable manner, until it did go out of control.

The Third Impact: AI replaces humans

The dean continues, "After the year 2020, the human society may have experienced three impacts led by high technology. The last and most significant impact was disruptive (but its possibility was the lowest) – computers or AI replaced mankind. Humans lost the control of themselves. Another possibility was that AI didn’t replace humans, but humans lost their control over AI. Before this could happen, there would already have been two other impacts, so we name this the third.

Humans became controlled by computers or AI, which they worked so hard to create. They were either replaced by technology or controlled by technology, no matter which outcome, humans were no longer masters of their own. As a species, humans faced either destruction by computers, or they were being petted. As a result, they might have lost their ability to evolve or advance. After generations, they slowly degenerated into a less intelligent species."

After a brief discussion, the audience asks, technically speaking, is this sort of replacement even possible?

The dean replies, "even though our technology in computers and AI is similar to that of humans at that time, our understanding towards the prospect of future AI is united. Our understanding is as follows:

Theoretically speaking,

It all depends on the computers’ computing power (application must be minimized);

Computers’ development in computing power has no limit;

As long as computers’ computing power is advance enough, any tangible object can be subdivided, or mimicked, and digitalized. It then can be copied according to the digitalized data (assuming that materials technology allows);

As long as computers’ computing power is advance enough, the mechanism of invisible objects (can be different from human mechanism) can also be subdivided endlessly (or mimicked), organized, and digitalized, theoretically. Therefore, its data can also be copied. It can be generalized that invisible things can also be replicated, including thoughts. Of course, this would be harder than copying visible objects.

Many humans, including scientists and technicians, were used to limiting their thinking to the conditions at the time. That limited mindset caused many humans to doubt or even disbelieve that this could ever happen."

The dean continues, according to the information we obtained, humans had already started discussing the threat of computers and AI replacing them. Some scientists, entrepreneurs, and scholars even made certain warnings. These warnings were mostly mild at that time, or very uncertain (they were often hinting), even though the danger was becoming clear.

The audience, if the danger was so clear and there were warnings, why did no one take it seriously?

The dean, most humans didn’t believe this would actually happen. Or maybe they did, but since they thought it was far away, they weren’t worried.

He pauses for a while and continues, we think the issue wasn’t the possibility and reality of AI replacing humans, but the issue was before the third impact, another impact that was less difficult to achieve may have already happened, and the result was just as overturning.

The Second Impact: Hybrid Intelligence – Human Upgrade

"If cyborgs, transgenic humans, or any other new technology could greatly enhance human intelligence, it would have brought a fundamental change to human beings. If these technologies merely changed humans’ biological features, it wouldn’t have created as big of an impact on society. In nature, the largest mammals on land are the elephants, the most ferocious are lions, the fastest are cheetahs, and the smartest are gorillas, but these species couldn’t compete with humans. And there’s only one reason: humans’ much higher intelligence. Even if a new species emerged and carried the best traits of all the other species in nature, it would not have been able to beat humans