The Third World War Is in Progress Now

By Tawny Eagle

A story of dishonesty, intrigue and brutal manipulation showing
how the superpowers manipulated the Coronavirus and how
the opportunity was seized to fiercely attack the American and
European Oil Industry, during the resultant short term glut
of Oil that they caused. In parallel they manipulate the Oil
supply and Governments with loans that all countries need,
whilst advancing their long term aims of a worldwide empire
but causing terrible damage on the way. Suddenly I realized
that we are already in the third world war with many fronts
open, but instead of geographical fronts they are dimensional
ones. Non-military conflicts are the struggle for domination of
energy source control, energy price control and manufacturing
monopolization. In the shadows the communications and
information domination with surveillance results in immense
intrusion and mounting mistrust. Military conflicts between
large powers, inside the less powerful countries, are played out
by proxy causing catastrophic loss of life and destruction and in
the background the Super Large Corporations who influence
Governments directly at the highest level, get them to act in
the interests of Super Large Corporations.

• Language: English
• Publisher: AuthorHouse UK
• Release date: Jun 8, 2020
• ISBN: 9781728354057

Tawny Eagle

After a 40 year long career as an Oil Industry International Executive, I wanted to tell this story to illustrate in a fictional manner, the brutal modern world we live in.

Book preview

© 2020 Tawny Eagle. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

Published by AuthorHouse 06/08/2020

ISBN: 978-1-7283-5406-4 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-7283-5407-1 (hc)

ISBN: 978-1-7283-5405-7 (e)

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Getty Images are models,

and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

Certain stock imagery © Getty Images.

Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

CONTENTS

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Dedication

Introduction

Chapter 1   The Virus Comes Up and the Oil Goes Down

Chapter 2   Biggest Ever Lock Down and Lock Down Confusion

Chapter 3   Attacking the Western Oil Industry with the Oil Price.

Chapter 4   Big Oil Influences

Chapter 5   Superpower Moves and Deals

Chapter 6   Chaos Reigns

Chapter 7   European Power Struggle and the UK

Chapter 8   World Poilitics

DEDICATION

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I would like to dedicate this book to my children Christian, Samantha and Carmelo, without their leadership by example, I would never have had the courage and belief to write it.

I need also to mention the constant encouragement received from my wife, who also acts as a manager.

I would also like to mention the efforts of Tim my good friend who helped me at all stages of the book with research on book writing and edits of the manuscript. Without Tim’s efforts I doubt that I would have got this far with the book.

INTRODUCTION

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This is a fictional story of how the superpowers manipulated the COVID-19 virus and how the opportunity was seized to fiercely attack the American and European Oil industry, the resultant short term glut of Oil that this attack caused and in parallel how the world is manipulated with the loans that all countries need.

This is a total set of my own thoughts, opinions, and conclusions. I have no way of knowing many real facts about the working of the governments or conversations between their leaders.

I have written this book as a work of fiction, to show one way I think the modern world could theoretically be. To show that it is driven in a brutal fashion, never far from chaos but with great self-interest and corruption rather than social responsibility, social order, transparency, and decency.

A surprise in all of this to me is the seemingly total corruption, self-interest, and lies seen in the actions of government in most countries, especially noticeable in some, even the leading Western governments.

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CHAPTER I

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THE VIRUS COMES UP AND

THE OIL GOES DOWN

The president of Russia is on the telephone talking to the Chinese president in early December 2019.

I have intelligence information that there is a virus starting in China, says the President of Russia. It seems to be quite a severe outbreak. Have you any idea where it came from and what it will take to stop?

The President of China No, we do not yet know the source other than a general area in a city. We do know the nature of the virus, which is a SARS type we call it COVID-19, as we cannot identify it as one of the known types. We, indeed, seem to have a problem, but I think it is under control as it is remaining local. In any case, taking measures to avoid a pandemic will be extremely costly and something that only China would bear the cost of, which would severely damage the economy short term. T e could then lose our position in many markets, or market share at least. We are hoping to avoid these losses. If we do have to take measures, we must discuss the best strategies so that we do not damage our economic position. I think Russia and China could work together closely. We may be able to get some leverage on the West and others if the COVID-19 does spread in a rapid fashion, then at least the shutdown would be general and hopefully China and Russia could open up before our competitors.

(They generally talk as agreed in international protocol, in mostly pre-prepared, large sections over a video link, allowing translation, and less delays or misunderstandings than would occur if each point were individually replied to.)

The President of Russia - I think this is an excellent idea. If there is a problem here, I can see,looking forward that the Oil price will be very much lower than we can manage our economy. I can see that any reduction in demand from China will certainly topple the Oil price, which has been unstable for many years now. This may be the time to correct the situation and get some people, their countries, and companies out of the game. We can get better leverage over a cartel that can better regulate the industry. We must also take the opportunity to reduce American Oil production, as their only aim to date is to increase production continually, which in the end reduces our market share.

To be effective you must keep me informed ahead of anyone else about the situation and your intended actions. I need to be able to predict the timing of the Oil price drop so that I can use my resources to their best advantage. The newly formed Russian Sovereign fund has the equivalent of 124 billion USD in it, and although this sounds like a lot, we are intending to use it to help compensate the loss of revenue in this Oil price drop. As you can understand, this will not last long, especially as we will have the extra costs from the virus measures as well as having to replace the Oil cash inflow. This number is not a lot if you look at how long and how low the Oil price will need to go to get the shale boys out. We normally earn about that much (124 Billion USD) per year from Oil and Gas alone.

We must tread carefully not to allow unintended consequences. In Venezuela, the immediate outlook is one of bankruptcy. They will be especially vulnerable at very long period of low Oil prices. One way out of that would be to have regime change, therefore better government, and better world co-operation. But I would like to avoid a regime change as I know this is a result which would be welcomed by America. We will have to consider how to help Venezuela as we proceed. Maybe we can get Iran to assist them, they usually get along well.

(Both parties know the position of Iran, and its Kurdistan region run by the KRG, it is a semi-autonomous region, which relies completely on funding from the central Iraq government. To date, it is in turmoil and has not been paid for six months. During this Oil price attack there could be millions of deaths there due to hunger and civil unrest.)

The Russian President continued- Maybe Turkey can assist with the problems in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, and then the Middle East, in general, the region needs our care and attention. It often serves as our buffer between us and the West, so we need to keep it. Wars by proxy have been fought there for decades now. I believe Iran is at great risk of American invasion or US backed Israeli aggression against its nuclear deterrent building. We must back them up and assist with the extreme poverty and suffering that the low Oil price will provoke there, otherwise millions will die of the effects. I believe that Syria will be additionally affected, so we must take care of Assad. Maybe direct funding will be the only way to allow him to continue paying for his heroic defence against the persistent greed-motivated western aggression. Which is destroying a people and a beautiful historic land.

There may be other opportunities as well, which we can opportunistically exploit, whilst we seize this lull in demand for Oil to attack the price without a physical war and reduce competition in the Oil markets in the future. Maybe there could be the possibility to bankrupt the US, or at least cause enough monetary loss to permanently damage their economy and allow our countries much better world freedom. We could at least end up with the power we had through Middle East co-operation to crush the Western economy through Oil. Remember the events of 1973. Whilst America is the world’s leading producer, we no longer have the power we had then, we need to get it back then we will dominate the world as America does now.

President of China replies, this is a complicated situation which requires some detailed planning. I think it will become clear in the next one or one and a half months, what action we need to take on this COVID-19. I believe the best we could do would be to allow it to get a hold as a pandemic before I shutdown and try to eliminate it from China. This will give us a timing advantage and a greatly weaker world economy to combat against.

We must consider, if we were to shut down now and ensure that no pandemic occurred, we would be severely weakened by the Oil price. Our loss in industry and the lead in many technologies such as electric cars, computers, batteries, telephones, and Wi-Fi would be severely worsened. For this reason, I must take the risk to allow some more time for the COVID-19 to permeate Europe and America before I take any action which will weaken our economy. I will try to unofficially limit visa restrictions communicated to my officials, but make this public, limiting travel to friendly countries as well as some of the poorer ones that may have trouble dealing with the outbreak.

President – I must ask you this, although I trust I know what your answer will be. Did you create the COVID-19 in a lab? Because if it was modified in anyway, then of course as we all know, the West will be able to see that. If they see that, they will consider it a chemical attack, which will almost inevitably lead to full scale physical World ar. I think neither of us wants that, so we would have to take a different course of actions were that the case to limit damage.

President – We were researching the COVID-19 in the lab to see how easy it would be to make effective antiviral drugs on vaccines for viruses that can occur. The origin of the COVID-19 was entirely natural, and we have not modified it. We do believe, but will never admit, perhaps one of the lab employees did make a mistake and infect himself or even infect himself in order that he could try the remedies. In any case, world relations towards China will never be the same again. I also believe that society will never be the same for decades because the remedy to this COVID-19 will shock the world greatly and hey will remain in great fear every winter. There will be huge money to be made on vaccines and antiviral drugs. This is an area that we were already looking into and want to aggressively pursue, which is why we have delayed giving out any sample of the COVID-19 from the sick people to foreign laboratories for analysis. Chinese laboratories have been growing in strength and capability significantly over the last ten years. We see the opportunity with ageing populations, not least our own, for significant drug requirements in the future. the antiviral drugs and vaccinations really do seem to be a huge opportunity.

resident of Russia I agree, but the timing and extent of the measures must be well thought out so they do not appear to be too late or in fact premeditated or contrived to cover up something. I would suggest that when you do commence any shutdown, probably around the end of January, you do so extremely aggressively. Shutdown China before the rest of the world has really grasped what is happening.

The shutdown should be enormous. It will trigger a similar response from other world leaders as soon as they start getting a lot of cases. For the next one or two months whilst the rest of the world is probably still unaware, they will not really be taking it aggressively. A flu bug comes every year with usually low severity, and many times rumours start that it will be deadly and pandemic, but then it just fizzles out. You must co-operate with and mislead the WHO so that they keep the West calm.

With this COVID-19, the incubation and transmission methods will not be obvious because of the symptomless carriers, and it lives much longer than normal outside of the body, even up to nine days on hard surfaces. Think about that! it will be so hard to track where infections came from and who then got it. The West will panic when they realise, they must find how to discover who is infected, and then get all the testing, tracking, equipment, and treatment centres in place it will also take time.

Even when they do put shutdowns in place (their weak leaders may well hesitate to implement a shut down and for sure will be reluctant to enforce one.) They do not have the control over their people like we do, and many will disobey so it will take much longer for them to control the COVID-19 than us. We can continue to work on understanding the COVID-19 and recovery and planning from now so that we will already know. This preparedness and early start for us will hopefully mean that we could control the outbreak as in a short possible time for ourselves and are open for business before all the other countries are opening their businesses and at a lower cost.

There is a huge opportunity here for me to deliberately lower the Oil price to a level much lower than that at which the American shale boys and most of the industry can make a profit. Hopefully this will severely curtail the rest of the worlds producers (not ones in the OPEC plus Cartel) from overproducing and make the Oil price much more stable and higher for the future as people will have fear of what can happen, what we can do, having seen this huge drop in price and the consequences.

There is a great advantage to doing this during shut down as we estimate that the demand for Oil in a world that has major shut downs in place would be less than Two Thirds of the current production this means we would need to cut over fifteen million barrels a day off the current production which with OPEC alone is virtually impossible and would lead to OPEC in any case having a lower market share and less influence in the future. Our cutting without agreements with America and other countries outside of OPEC plus would also allow continual growth of the them and still a weak Oil price.

The only way we can improve our situation is to be the key to the price as OPEC was designed to be but making a larger OPEC where other partners traditionally non co-operative are forced to co-operate. This world shutdown would offer a unique opportunity to alter the balance sheets of many of these countries making them much weaker and alter the balance of power for air transport, world transport and many other consequences that we can then take opportunistic advantage of. We must make a concerted effort including with the OPEC countries to ensure that this Oil crisis although not too short lived is extremely damaging in all areas by using the COVID-19 shutdown to maximum effect. There will be millions of additional deaths, so we need to protect areas where these are not in our longer-term best interests.

Later the same day the President of Russia is calling the Saudi King of Saudi Arabia.

(Again, the call is managed, as the call with China was earlier in the day, to allow for the best result in different languages over a video link and mostly in sections, rather than free flowing conversation.)

I am glad to be having this call, I am very keen to talk to you on what I think is a very important matter as I am sure that you are aware we are to work on the Oil price to have an agreement by March this year, I want to agree a road map for this with you as I think that the road is complex. I don’t know what you think but inventories are high again (above 5 year averages) and we are losing market share with the cuts which don’t seem to be working and will be required to be even deeper this time. A straight cuts strategy does not seem to be working in the right direction and we need to discuss how to turn this around or include more countries in the cuts somehow as you have done with us Russians in the OPEC plus deal to date. This will be exceedingly difficult to negotiate as many of the non-OPEC countries are not friends of each other and some of them desperately need the Oil revenue in the short term.

The King of Saudi Arabia - I am sure that what you have said has an awful lot of merit I am not sure what is the best way to go about this, as we did try to overproduce and put the shale Oil companies out of business in 2014 as you know. I think we agree that it did not work as we did not get the Oil price low enough for long enough, but we did suffer an awful financial loss. We never expected the shale Oil companies to rebound so quickly and taking even more Oil share, then other countries outside of OPEC not agreeing to any cuts and deliberately overproducing whilst there was a gap in the market but we have learnt.

With modern technology there seems to be an awful lot of places where hydrocarbons can be found over