Africa and the World: Navigating Shifting Geopolitics

By The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MIST

Africa and the World: Navigating Shifting Geopolitics is one of the first books to analyse the global geopolitical landscape from an African perspective, with a view to the opportunities and challenges facing the African continent. Authors in this edited volume argue for the need to re-imagine Africa s role in the world. As a cradle of humanity, a historical fountain of profound scientific knowledge, an object of colonial conquest and, today, a collective of countries seeking to pool their sovereignties in order to improve the human condition, Africa has a unique opportunity to advance its own interests. Authors re?ect on all these issues; they outline how developments in the global political economy impact on the continent and, inversely, how Africa can develop a strategic perspective that takes into account the dynamics playing out in a fraught global terrain.

• Language: English
• Publisher: The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MIST
• Release date: Feb 2, 2020
• ISBN: 9780639995571

Book preview

First published by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) in 2020

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ISBN 978-0-6399955-6-4

© MISTRA, 2020

Production and design by Jacana Media, 2020

Editor in chief: Joel Netshitenzhe

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Please cite this publication as follows:

MISTRA. 2020. Africa and the World: Navigating Shifting Geopolitics. Francis Kornegay Jnr and Philani Mthembu (eds.). Johannesburg: Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.

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Contents

Preface

Acknowledgements

Contributors

Acronyms & abbreviations

SECTION ONE:

AFRICA IN THE CHANGING GLOBAL SCENARIO

Chapter One: Africa and the epicentre: Exploring shifting global political geographies in a changing strategic landscape

– Francis Kornegay Jnr & Philani Mthembu

Chapter Two: The multiple determinants of geopolitics and Africa’s place in a potent economic, ideological and psychological mix

– Joel Netshitenzhe

Chapter Three: The convergence of history and theoretical paradigms: Reflections on geopolitics shaping the African continent

– Tlhabane Motaung; Themba Moleketi; Duduetsang Mokoele and Nqobile Mangena

Chapter Four: The geo-economics of global trade: Implications for the African continental free trade agreement

– Garth le Pere

Chapter Five: Russia’s New Outreach to Africa: Economic and geostrategic implications

– Gerrit Olivier

Chapter Six: China’s Belt and Road Initiative: How can Africa advance its strategic priorities?

– Philani Mthembu

SECTION TWO:

ISLAND AFRICA AND CONCEPTUALISING THE GLOBAL STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE

Chapter Seven: Island Africa: Toward a Continental-Maritime Zone of Peace and Cooperation geostrategy?

– Francis Kornegay Jnr

Chapter Eight: Can Africa ever achieve continental sovereignty in the Shifting West-to-East Strategic Landscape? The geopolitics of integration and autonomy

– Babatunde Fagbayibo

Chapter Nine: The Eurafrican geopolitics of the Mediterranean: Prospects for an interregional AU–EU Permanent Joint Commission

– Elizabeth Sidiropoulos & AnaSofia Bizos

Chapter Ten: Afro-Latin equations: Revisiting the Zone of Peace and Cooperation in the South Atlantic

– Gladys Lechini

SECTION THREE:

AFRICA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN NEXUS

Chapter Eleven: Northeast Africa and interregional power dynamics: The Nile-Red Sea- Persian Gulf Nexus

– Faith Mabera

Chapter Twelve: The plausibility of an Indian Ocean Zone of Peace initiative: An Indian perspective

– Probal Gosh

Chapter Thirteen: Locating ASEAN as the strategic centre of an emerging Indian Ocean community: Implications for Africa.

– Shankari Sundararaman

SECTION FOUR:

ATLANTIC-PACIFIC EQUATIONS

Chapter Fourteen: The rise of Bolsonaro in Brazil, Obrador in Mexico and the future of Latin American regionalism: Prospects for Afro-Latin relations?

– Guilherme Thudium & Erik Ribeiro

CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS & CHARTING THE PATH AHEAD

Chapter Fifteen: Africa’s continental integration: A pathway towards strategic autonomy

– Francis Kornegay Jnr & Philani Mthembu

Preface

This volume analyses the shifting global landscape from the point of view of challenges and opportunities facing the African continent. It explores how Africa’s future prospects intersect with, and are impacted by, agendas external to the continent. Geographically, Africa is situated at the very crossroads of geopolitical dynamics.

This raises a number of questions, chiefly: what does the broader west-to-east shift in the global political economy’s centre of gravity mean for Africa? What are the contours of this evolving terrain? What does the changing balance of forces mean for the future of the continent?

Relevant to these dynamics are matters to do with economic interests, global military strategies, demographics, migration and environmental challenges – all impacting on humanity in a variety of ways.

Over the centuries, geopolitics has played out in many guises. From changing habitats against the backdrop of ancient migrations, to the wars of nation formation and conquest, the rise and fall of empires, the Cold War as well as the struggles for independence and self-determination, these human experiences have etched themselves into the memories of nations across generations. As such, beyond issues of the political economy, psychological factors do influence how nations of the world receive and interpret signals of the present and assess prospects for the future.

Geological Africa is contiguous to the Afro-Eurasian landmass, extending from the western Euro-Atlantic to the east Asia-Pacific. It encompasses the Indian Ocean Rim that links it to the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Africa is configured in a manner suggestive of a mega-island located in the south between east and west. This carries geo-strategic implications for the continent’s relations with the rest of the world.

It is these questions and issues that this volume sets out to explore, with Africa as the central frame of reference. The authors in this study seek to contribute to discourse on geopolitics from a perspective that is currently lacking: that is, locating ‘Island Africa’ as a strategic centre in terms of its geographic location, its endowments and its long-term potential. As a cradle of humanity, a historical fountain of profound scientific knowledge, an object of colonial conquest and, today, a collective of countries seeking to pool their sovereignties in order to improve the human condition, Africa has a unique opportunity to advance its own interests in a fraught global terrain.

The authors reflect on all these issues, outlining how developments in the global political economy impact on the continent and, inversely, how Africa can develop a strategic perspective that takes into account the dynamics playing out on the global terrain.

The authors assert that the African continent’s central geographic positioning in relation to all other continents and its endowments present unique political, security and geo-economic benefits. Yet, they also acknowledge that, as has happened in history, these very advantages can serve as a basis for perverse manifestations of new forms of domination and exploitation. In a world characterised by the resurgence of chauvinistic nationalism, mercantilistic protectionism, right-wing religiosity and the rise of a ubiquitous security–industrial complex among the global powers, Africa indeed has to be vigilant.

As such, the authors go beyond analysis of what is, to venture concrete proposals on what can be, with Africa exercising its social agency. This requires the strengthening of continental integration and cohesion in pursuit of ideals that the African Union has enshrined in Agenda 2063. In this way, Africa would be able to engage, in a more systemic and disciplined manner, with external powers, based on its own interests, which, in their framing, are also the interests of humanity.

A continent united in both purpose and action can be an active agent in shaping the evolving global order. This volume makes a strong case for precisely such a perspective and contributes to what should be an ongoing effort to analyse geopolitics with Africa as a critical frame of reference.

The Mapungubwe Institute (MISTRA) wishes to express its appreciation to all the authors and other intellectuals – both from the African continent and further afield in the global south – who helped shape this volume. Our thanks also go to the funders who have ensured that MISTRA is able consistently to bring into the public discourse ideas that transcend the vagaries of the moment to explore vistas beyond the horizon.

– Prof Sibusiso Vil-Nkomo

Board Chairperson

Acknowledgements

A project of this nature owes its completion to a wide array of stakeholders, who at different stages have made important contributions towards the quality of the final product. We wish to especially thank all the scholars who contributed to this important research project.

Our gratitude also goes to the blind peer reviewers, whose reviews and comments greatly improved the quality of the papers produced. We also especially wish to thank all the contributors who made it to the workshop hosted by MISTRA and the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), which was beneficial in finalising the conceptual overview of the book and in refining the first draft papers.

The project team of editors was led by Mr Francis Kornegay Jnr and Dr Philani Mthembu, both from the Institute for Global Dialogue, associated with UNISA. The MISTRA project coordinator was Mr Tlhabane Motaung, assisted by Mr Themba Moleketi, who provided the institutional support and guidance from MISTRA. Professor Susan Booysen and Mr Joel Netshitenzhe ensured that this publication meets the highest possible standards.

Contributors

AnaSofia Bizos has a Honours degree from Leiden University, The Hague, where she specialised in Liberal Arts and Sciences: World Politics. Having focused on Peace and Conflict Studies, with a special interest in African affairs and Afro-European relations, AnaSofia returned to South Africa where she worked for the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA) and the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). She is currently studying towards an LLB degree at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Duduetsang Mokoele is a researcher in MISTRA’s Knowledge Economy and Scientific Advancement Faculty (KESA) where she contributes towards research in the areas of mining, pedagogy of mathematics, and innovation systems. Before joining MISTRA she worked at the Department of Science and Technology’s International Resources division where she assisted with leveraging strategic science, technology and innovation partnerships. She has an academic background in International Relations, Political Studies, and Public Policy and Administration.

Elizabeth Sidiropoulos is the chief executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs, which she has led since 2005. With more than 26 years of experience in the field of politics and international relations, Elizabeth’s expertise lies in South Africa’s foreign policy, South–South cooperation and the role of emerging powers in Africa. She is the co-chair of the Think 20 Africa Standing Group, one of the task forces of the Think 20, which is one of the engagement groups of the G20. She is currently co-editing a volume titled, ‘A SA foreign policy for the 2020s’, which will be published in 2019.

Erik Herejk Ribeiro has a PhD in International Strategic Studies from the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil. Dr Ribeiro was a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in New Delhi, India, between March and October 2017. He is currently a research associate at the Brazilian Centre for Strategy & International Relations (NERINT) and the South American Institute for Policy and Strategy (ISAPE). He has previous experience as a reviewer for the following journals: Contemporary Review of the Middle East, Revista Perspectiva, Conjuntura Austral and Boletim de Conjuntura NERINT. His research has been previously funded by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES), a Brazilian government agency under the Ministry of Education.

Faith Mabera is a senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue, affiliated with UNISA, where she oversees the Foreign Policy Analysis programme. Her research interests include the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), African diplomacy, foreign policy analysis, African peace and security issues, norms dynamics in international relations and global governance.

Fagbayibo Babatunde graduated with a doctoral degree in Public Law, with specialisation in regional integration law, from the University of Pretoria, South Africa. His research interest primarily focuses on the institutional development of the African Union, in particular the process of supra-nationalising the institutional architecture of the organisation. Other research interests include international politics, transnational policy analysis, new paradigms of inter-state relations, and governance and democratisation in Africa. He has written widely on issues of African integration, democracy and good governance, and development in Africa. He has also granted interviews to print and broadcast media within and outside South Africa on African integration and development matters. He currently serves as the assistant editor of Southern African Public Law and is also a member of the editorial board of the African Journal of Democracy and Governance. He blogs at http://afrothoughts.wordpress.com/

Francis Kornegay Jnr is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Global Dialogue, University of South Africa. One of South Africa’s renowned students of global geopolitical and strategic trends, Kornegay is a long-term analyst of Global South and emerging power dynamics and US foreign policy. He was lead co-editor of Laying the BRICS of a New Global Order: From Yekaterinburg 2009 to eThekwini 2013 (Africa Institute of South Africa).

He is currently working on From Global Hegemony to Global Community: Critical Reflections on a US Foreign Policy Predicated on ‘Nation-Building at Home’. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he has a Masters in African Studies from Howard University and a Masters in International Public Policy from SAIS, Johns Hopkins. He is a former Congressional Black Caucus staffer, serving under Charles Diggs and Walter Fauntroy.

Garth Le Pere is Extraordinary Professor of International Relations at the University of Pretoria and an independent consultant. He is also the founding executive director of the Institute for Global Dialogue, where he served for 12 years. He received a BA (with highest honours) from Rutgers University (New Jersey) and did postgraduate work in political science at Yale University (Connecticut) from where he holds MA, MPhil and PhD degrees. His areas of interest and publications include international relations theory, political philosophy, multilateral trade and emerging markets, South African foreign policy, and the political economy of Africa and the Middle East. His recent work has focused on China as a great power and its increasing role in Africa, a subject on which he has co-authored a book, China, Africa and South Africa: South–South Cooperation in a Global Era. His most recent book is titled China’s Global Rise: Reconstructing Power after the Cold War.

Gerrit Olivier holds a PhD in International Politics from the University of Pretoria. He served as South Africa’s first diplomatic representative to the Soviet Union and its first ambassador to the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Before entering diplomatic service, he was professor of Political Science and International Relations at the universities of Zululand, Johannesburg (formerly Rand Afrikaans University) and Pretoria. He was a founder member and president of the South African Association of Political Science and a first editor of Politikon. He is author and co-author of various books and articles on South African foreign policy, African regionalism, the European Union, Russian security and foreign policy.

Glady Lechini has a PhD in Sociology (University of São Paulo, Brazil). She was principal investigator of the National Council of Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET); Professor of International Relations and Director of the Doctorate in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science and International Relations of the UNR, Argentina. She is Director of the South–South Relations and Cooperation Program (PRECSUR) and Project Director of the Center for International Relations Studies of Rosario (CERIR).

Guilherme Thudium is a doctoral candidate in International Strategic Studies at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil. He holds a Master’s degree in Political Science from UFRGS and a Bachelor of Laws (LLB) degree from PUC-RS, with academic specialisations in International Law and International Relations. He has been a visiting researcher at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology of the University of Würzburg, Germany. Currently he works as a researcher for the Brazilian Centre for Strategy & International Relations (NERINT) and the Centre for International Studies on Government (CEGOV). He is also a research associate at the South American Institute for Policy and Strategy (ISAPE) and assistant editor of AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations. He is a member of the Brazilian Academy of Defence Studies (ABED) and the King’s College London War Studies Society (WSS).

Joel Netshitenzhe is the executive director and vice-chairperson of the board of governors of the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA). He has a MSc in Financial Economics and a post-graduate diploma in Economic Principles from the University of London, as well as a diploma in Political Science from the Institute of Social Sciences in Moscow. Before his retirement from government in 2009, he served as head of Communication in President Nelson Mandela’s office, CEO of Government Communications and Information System (GCIS), and as head of the Policy Unit in The Presidency. He was a member of the first National Planning Commission (NPC) and is non-executive director of the CSIR, Nedbank Group and Life Healthcare Group. He has been a member of the National Executive Committee of the ANC since 1991. He is also a visiting professor in the Wits School of Governance.

Nqobile Mangena holds an Honours degree in Political Science from the University of KwaZulu-Natal. She was previously a research intern at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) and is currently contributing to a project assessing South Africa’s democratic trajectory. Her interests lie primarily within the realm of International Relations and current affairs, particularly as they relate to long-term development.

Philani Mthembu is the executive director of the Institute for Global Dialogue (IGD), associated with UNISA. Prior to joining IGD, he pursued a joint doctoral programme with the Graduate School of Global Politics, Freie Universität in Berlin, Germany and the School of International Studies at Renmin University, Beijing, China. The focus of his dissertation was on the rise of emerging powers as sources of development cooperation in Africa, which was awarded magna cum laude. He co-founded the Berlin Forum on Global Politics (BFoGP), a non-profit organisation dedicated to the promotion of academic, expert and public understanding of global politics. While completing his Master’s in International Relations at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, he headed the Academic Development Programme for first year students and was elected as the first independent candidate to the Student Representative Council (SRC). His recent publications include a single-authored book titled China and India’s Development Cooperation in Africa: The Rise of Southern Powers, and a co-edited book titled, From MDGs to Sustainable Development Goals: The Travails of International Development.

Probal Ghosh is a former SEAS fellow and has had the rare privilege of being the lead co-chair and India representative to two consecutive CSCAP International Study Groups on Maritime security (CSCAP – Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific is considered the Track II version of the ASEAN Regional Forum).

Themba Moleketi was a junior researcher at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA). He was the assistant co-ordinator for this publication, and has presented and produced a research report on the middle-class for the Indlulamithi South Africa 2030 Scenarios project. He holds a Master’s degree in Politics from the New School for Social Research (NSSR), New York. He previously worked as an intern at Deloitte’s Public Sector department, where he assisted on the Operation Phakisa ‘Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development’ project. During his undergraduate studies he also interned in the communications and research department of the African Centre for Migration and Society.

Tlhabane M. Motaung is a senior researcher at MISTRA as well as head of Humanity Faculty. Before working for MISTRA he worked as speechwriter in the Presidency of South Africa for 14 years. He is keen on history, political economy, international political economy and African philosophy. He has contributed peer-reviewed book chapters on subjects such as traditional leadership, decolonisation and Marxism, the Fees Must Fall movement, the impact of Nelson Mandela, social cohesion, and memory and race and history.

Acronyms & abbreviations

Section One:

Africa in the Changing Global Scenario

CHAPTER ONE

Africa at the epicentre:

Exploring shifting global political geographies in a changing strategic landscape

FRANCIS A. KORNEGAY, JNR AND HILANI MTHEMBU

This volume analyses the geopolitics of a transitioning global strategic landscape from the vantage point of challenges facing the African continent. It explores how these intersect with, and are impacted by, agendas external to the continent. Geographically situated in the ‘Global South’ as the geological extension of the Afro-Eurasian land mass, Africa is centrally located at the very crossroads of global strategic dynamics. This raises a number of questions, chiefly: How does Africa and its future, intersecting with the continent’s geopolitical, economic and security dynamics relate to the broader West-to-East shifting of the global political economy’s centre of gravity in an evolving multipolar strategic landscape? These dynamics are affected by continental and maritime perimeters in proximity to Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the Americas. What are the contours in the making of this evolving terrain? How is it affected by the changing balance of forces in an international system implicating the geo-economics as well as the geopolitics of trans-Eurasia and the Indian Ocean nexus (China, Russia, India, Middle East, Africa) and Atlantic-Pacific equations? These are the questions this volume sets out to explore but with Africa as the epicentral point of departure.

As backdrop, these considerations factor into account disruptions to an international order under assault from a United States (US) administration under Donald Trump, which aims to unravel the American-constructed post-war system, thus portending an accelerated relative decline of the West. These disruptions link to America’s changing domestic socio-racial and class political landscape. We see similar ructions unfolding in the United Kingdom and Europe, in part reacting to pressures from the formerly colonised Global South. Indeed the North–South ‘chickens are coming home to roost’, combined with additional complex challenges to Euro-American hegemony from China and Russia. This also involves an Afro-Eurasian political geography, placing a ‘peninsular’ Africa interactively at the epicentre of a changing strategic terrain as the authentic ‘Middle Kingdom’.

Could this metaphorically herald a Gondwana-type reunification of the Global South amidst the decline of the North? Africa’s location within the southern hemisphere does, however, conceptually inform the notion of an ‘Island Africa’ in search of a continental-maritime peace and security system. This might shape what could evolve as a more broadly conceived global architecture, which addresses the international system as a whole. This volume thus amplifies the importance of creating the conditions for greater continental autonomy and agency in an evolving international landscape.

The volume addresses the rapidly changing global geopolitical terrain from a uniquely Africa-centred vantage point. It is a perspective informed by the African continent’s globally centred positioning relative to all other continents and continental-maritime interregional zones of political, security and geo-economic intercourse. As such, the continent is conceived of as a mega-island or, if you will, ‘Island Africa.’

Africa’s geographic centrality presents the continent with complex dilemmas emanating from its historical and contemporary interaction with the rest of the world. For varied reasons, Africa as a whole, from a security perspective, is essentially invulnerable to conventional invasion and occupation by any single military power external to the continent – or endogenous to it. The reasons for this include Africa’s geographic centrality within the global map of world politics, as well as the manner in which its geographical vastness is configured – with all its topographical diversity, varied ecosystems and expansive continental-maritime perimeter. This is open to argument though no one colonial power has ever managed to conquer the continent in its entirety and many suffered humiliating defeats in battles where an indigenous, regional imperium held sway. Nor, as in the case of the Americas, did a pan-European consolidation emerge in settler imperialism of ‘Manifest Destiny’ to subdue the continent, although imperial intrusions and settler colonialisms did gain footholds in different African regions. Inter-imperialist colonial penetration of continental Africa can be viewed as variations on a theme as with rival penetrations into the Americas and in the carving up of spheres of influence in China. A comparative analysis of these experiences might add to our understanding of how they relate contemporaneously. In any case, relations between Africa and Europe were especially salient. They were considerably more complicated than generally assumed, as surveyed by renowned journalist and commentator Howard W. French in his New York Review of Books critique of a number of works on ‘Africa’s Lost Kingdoms’.¹

From a contemporary perspective, these historical patterns and complexities militate, hypothetically, against an expansionist Africa in search of ‘strategic depth’ (the continent being its own strategic depth). They also militate against the notion of Africans needing to access resources, human or otherwise, from elsewhere in the world since these it has in over-abundance as sources of endless extractive attraction by external powers the world over. Africa’s vulnerabilities are its interregional proximities to non-African regions inhabited by external powers seeking to partake in this abundance for their own interests.

In addition, Africa’s extreme vulnerability is a product of its inherited lack of integrated governance and cohesion, as well as its vast and diverse landscape. Can an Africa embarking on the African Union’s Agenda 2063 ever marshal sufficient agency to overcome its endemic and externally driven contradictions? Africa’s geopolitical fragmentation – a result of colonisation by a diversity of external powers – reflects how no one external power, on its own, was ever positioned to subdue Africa in its continental entirety. This fragmentation is also a reflection of the geologic and geo-cultural divisions between Africa south of the Sahara and the Maghreb bordering the Mediterranean. This legacy, updated to contemporary realities of global economic integration, contributed to contemporary Africa’s vulnerability to illicit as well as conventional economic penetration, challenging the continent’s Agenda 2063 prospects.

Given these historical and contemporary circumstances, an African ‘geo-strategy’ would, of necessity, be preoccupied with aspirations for ‘continental sovereignty’ on the one hand – which would involve the African Union (AU) in conjunction with its regional economic communities (RECs) – and continental and regional integrationist de-fragmenting on the other. Fragmentation constitutes a panAfrican challenge to achieving an ‘Afro-continentalism’ of enormous proportions and complexity as Africa does not occupy a universe on its own, all by itself. Rather, it has interregional connectivity to other non-African regions. Africa’s fate cannot be de-linked from geopolitical, geo-economic and strategic contradictions unfolding in other landscapes, nor from external influences emanating from major powers. Compounding this complexity is perhaps the greatest security challenge facing Africa, namely climate change interacting with rapid urbanisation, demographic expansion and rampant resource exploitation – all driving ecological decline. Weak to failing and collapsed states, at the mercy of predatory internal and external forces, exacerbate this predicament. This volume interrogates the geopolitical dynamics associated with these challenging landscapes. This entails examining the geopolitical, economic and security challenges shaping the Mediterranean Sea and oceanic Indian, Pacific and Atlantic interregional zones. As such, the power agendas of the US, Russia, China, Europe and other important state actors, as well as regional groupings, are relevant to the analytical thrust of this volume.

As the 21st century unfolds, Africa’s global geo-strategic centrality is likely to increase in salience for better or ill. This will be contingent on how the continent’s demographic dynamism unfolds in relation to decline in the rest of the world, Asia included. By 2050, Africa’s population will outstrip both India and China individually (just as India’s is projected to outstrip China’s) and will equal that of all of Asia by the 22nd century. Of course, demographics are not destiny; their implications are contingent on any number of variables already alluded to above. This, though, potentially implicates levels of regional and continental integration as determinants of Africa and the world’s future. Africa’s population trajectory could prove destabilising and is already informing European threat perceptions which Europe is so far failing to cope with as it steps up divide-and-rule policies. It is hoped that contributions to this volume will reflect attempts to discern this future, including imagining what the global geopolitical strategic landscape might likely reflect – even, what it should reflect, wishful thinking though this might be. After all, the post-war and post-Cold War US-constructed international order is under stress, both from American domestic political dynamics and externally. This order is changing and will change in some form or fashion, and yet again, these changes will affect the world and Africa in the world.

What is important from an African point of view is how the continent will, or can, be an active agent in shaping the evolving global order. This is an important endeavour given how academic scholarship on geopolitics tends to imagine Africa as a passive passenger in a changing geopolitical order. This book makes a strong case for a different perspective and contributes to what should be an ongoing effort to analyse geopolitics with Africa at the centre. This will surely remain important for a continent being courted by various actors and experiencing a demographic and technological transformation that will only enhance its relevance in the changing geopolitical and economic landscape.

The themes covered in this volume are intended to offer scope for contributors to have sufficient flexibility to address a wide range of issues. The themes also vary as to how Africa-related they are, some very specific, others less so – but all still relevant to the whole. This is because this book is as much about global and regional geopolitical- and geo-economic-strategic multipolar dynamics as it is about Africa, though Africa is the volume’s point of departure.

OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTERS

The first section of the book, titled ‘Africa in the Changing Global Scenario’, with this opening chapter by the editors, lays out a conceptual overview of the volume. Here, we have sought to centralise Africa as the epicentre in humanity’s global political geography, leading us to pose various questions rendered important by today’s shifting geopolitical-strategic landscape. Besides laying out the broad thematic focus of this volume, this chapter articulates the salience of ‘Island Africa’ as a concept. This is by dint of its geography in proximity to other regions and both continental and maritime land- and -seascapes and corridors. Each of these regions carries its own geopolitical contradictions, drawing in different regions of Africa, especially throughout the continent’s northern tier and its eastern and southern African Indian Ocean littoral expanse. This concept is elaborated on more extensively later in this volume.

Following this opening chapter, Joel Netshitenzhe interrogates the intersection of economic, ideological and psychological factors that have historically shaped geopolitics in the global political economy, and the implications of these factors for Africa today. The analysis aims to understand the developmental trajectory of the continent against the backdrop of an evolving socio-political world order. The study proceeds from the premise that the continuities and discontinuities of world history have shaped Africa’s own economics and politics. While many studies emphasise ideological, economic and political factors, Netshitenzhe’s study also seeks to inject subtle issues of psychological states of mind, and how these impact on the way that various nations and regions of the world have positioned themselves in relation to one another and to Africa – and inversely, how Africa has positioned itself in relation to the world.

This is followed by a multi-authored contribution by Tlhabane Motaung, Themba Moleketi, Duduetsang Mokoele and Nqobile Mangena, which takes a historical perspective on ‘Geopolitics and the shaping of the African continent’. External forces of the international political economy have transfigured the historical trajectory of the African continent since the late 15th century. Slavery, colonialism and neo-colonialism are the three distinct historical periods that shaped the geopolitically subordinate states of the African continent, as Europe advanced its economic and political interests. Threaded throughout the historical process has been the core notion of economic selfinterest, starting with economic liberalism, which later morphed into neoliberalism. Drawing on historical epistemology, this analysis argues that the global and continental political conditions under which African states attained political independence, the emergence of European industrial capitalism, and the end of the Cold War were decisive milestones that configured the current geopolitics of Africa. For its part, Africa has not just been a hapless victim of inexorable historical forces. Rather it did, in time and in the face of foreign hostility, evolve a form of self-consciousness which energised its own agency, at least to keep striving to define itself on its own terms. The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad), the Lagos Plan, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) processes, Agenda 2063 and various regional integration initiatives form part of Africa’s evolving, homegrown solutions to its challenges.

Garth le Pere’s chapter follows up by investigating the extent to which the current tensions that shape trade relations between major powers, especially the US and China could affect the stability of the post-war liberal trading order. Le Pere also explores how other sub-regional arrangements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), could affect this order. His chapter focuses on how the retreat into economic nationalism as a consequence of the 2008 global financial crisis has precipitated a move towards trade protectionism and economic populism, and has thus compromised the virtues of trade interdependence which has been a major outcome of economic globalisation. Against this backdrop, the chapter considers several dimensions of geo-economics as these will impact on the evolution of the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA).

Le Pere’s chapter thus seeks to understand how trade tensions will impact on the success or otherwise of the CFTA and whether the CFTA is a new opportunity for Africa to ‘go it alone’ by enhancing the continent’s prospects for intra-regional trade and hence, trade selfreliance. The chapter also explores the extent to which Africa is capable of addressing the multiple supply-side constraints that hinder the free movement of goods and services across the continent; how trade relations with traditional partners (like the European Union (EU) and the US) and new partners (BRICS countries and others) could be used to realise growth and development as envisioned in the CFTA; and how trade in services, especially the benefits of the digital revolution, could be harnessed to advance the frontiers of the CFTA.

The next chapter, authored by Gerrit Olivier, argues that South Africa should make a new assessment of how Russia, given its global status, power and influence, can play a more meaningful role in the advancement of its own as well as Africa’s national interests, and adapt its diplomacy accordingly. Africa is no longer the ‘hopeless continent’ but a continent of hope, filled with opportunities, particularly for business, development and combating national insecurity. Particularly as both countries are members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), South Africa and Russia could lead the way to help Africa to realise its true potential.

In terms of history, geopolitics and national interests, Olivier argues that there are many compelling reasons why Russo–South African relations should be more rewarding in both material and diplomatic terms. It would seem that the Soviet Union, as a pivotal force in ending colonialism and apartheid, had served its purpose and lost much of its traction. In addition, Russia grossly overplayed its hand by trying to bulldoze South Africa into accepting an unaffordable nuclear energy deal, leading thus to a diplomatic setback. Given these failures, a fresh look at the relationship has become imperative. Olivier’s treatment in this chapter offers a more focused look at South African foreign policy.

Philani Mthembu then looks at China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), identifying opportunities for Africa to advance its strategic and development interests through the BRI. His chapter completes the first section of the