Hurricane Risk in the Gulf of Mexico

By John D. Irany

Houston is doomed. New Orleans is sinking. All of southern Florida is likely to be devastated by massive flooding.

Over the past 50 years, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have risen 69% faster than global sea surface temperatures, which are rising themselves as the planet warms. As this trend continues, communities along and near the Gulf of Mexico will experience an increase in destructive hurricanes with related problems of storm surge, flooding and high wind damage. This book makes the case, based upon statistical evidence, for this prediction.

• Language: English
• Publisher: John D. Irany
• Release date: Feb 19, 2019
• ISBN: 9780463217917

John D. Irany

The author holds a graduate degree from Harvard University.

Book preview

Hurricane Risk in the Gulf of Mexico

by

John D. Irany

Smashwords Edition

Copyright 2020 by John D. Irany

All rights reserved

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Chapter 1: The Gulf of Mexico

In 1975, crew members on a ship in the service of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) placed in the Gulf of Mexico a weather buoy to record and transmit basic weather data. The information to be gathered included measurements of sea surface temperatures (SST). The buoy, No. 42001, is located 180 nautical miles south of Southwest Pass, Louisiana. This is about at the center of the Gulf. At about the same time, a second buoy, No. 42002, was placed in the western Gulf, 207 nautical miles east of Brownsville, Texas. A third buoy, No. 42003, was placed in the eastern Gulf, 208 nautical miles west of Naples, Florida. Additional buoys have been placed closer to shore in more recent decades.

The buoy system, thus, is a valuable source of information about sea surface conditions in the Gulf, and provides an historical record from which trends can be derived.

Figure 1. A NOAA weather buoy with solar panels.

Using the buoy system data and data from other NOAA sources, this book presents a statistical analysis of the rise of sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico over the past five decades. The findings are ominous. Sea surface temperatures are rising worldwide. And sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are rising at an even faster rate than the global increase.

In 2019, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were the highest of any year in the past 50 years, and quite possibly, the highest of any year since Christopher Columbus sailed into those waters while looking for a passageway to Asia.

As a result, communities on and near the Gulf face a rising risk of catastrophic hurricanes for the foreseeable future. Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018) were not outlier events. They were the future.

(Additional data used for this study are available