Who Is Responsible for Uncertainty: The Process-Tree Theory

By Jiahui Zhu

Ever wondered why someone succeeded and someone failed? If you do, you are not alone because this has been a puzzle until the theory that has been introduced by this book.

• Language: English
• Publisher: AuthorHouse UK
• Release date: Mar 9, 2012
• ISBN: 9781467889186

Jiahui Zhu

Dr Jiahui Zhu is an entrepreneur after being a plant geneticist for many years. Here is his major achievement: • Founder of the Process Tree Theory • Founder of SelecGen Ltd • Winner of UK Young Entrepreneur Scheme • Award winning inventor • Inventions include Synchronized Listening Directed Creativity Genome Partitioning Four-question Analysis Stratified Success Factor Analysis Indextree Concept Forget Me Not (Indextree), an app for iPhone for information management Anadecider, an app for iPhone as an analytical and decision-making tool

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© 2012 by Jiahui Zhu. All rights reserved.

Founder of the process tree theory, an award winning inventor

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

Published by AuthorHouse 03/22/2013

ISBN: 978-1-4678-8919-3 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-4678-8918-6 (e)

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Thinkstock are models, and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

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Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Contents

Acknowledgements

Preface

Introduction

1. Process

1.1. Definition of a process

1.2. Being is also a process

1.3. Interaction

1.4. Interaction is the cause of changes

1.5. Definition of success

2. Process Tree

2.1. Divisibility

2.2. Idealistic view

2.3. Necessary factor axiom

2.4. Process tree

2.5. Mathematical expressions of a process tree

2.6. Necessary factor theorem

2.7. Three basic features of the process tree

2.8. Relationship within a process tree

2.9. Complexity and simplicity

2.10. Open processes

2.11. Solution for open processes

3. Impossibility, Uncertainty and Certainty

3.1. Formal definition of certainty, uncertainty, and impossibility

3.2. Calculating probability and risk through necessary factors

3.3. Calculating probability and risk through subprocesses

3.4. Risk transferring within process trees

3.5. Natural uncertainty theorem

3.6. Variation allowance theorem

3.7. Six deductions of variation allowance theorem

3.8. Causes of impossibility, uncertainty and certainty

4. Towards Certainty of Success

4.1. Certainty and uncertainty time theorems

4.2. Example for certainty and uncertainty time

4.3. Implication of certainty and uncertainty time theorems

4.4. Features of certainty and uncertainty time

4.5. Predictability theorem

4.6. Fate

4.7. Repetition theorem

4.8. Four ways to achieve certainty of success

5. Potential and Necessary Factors

5.1. General definition of potential

5.2. Inertia and momentum

5.3. Learning curves and plateaus

5.4. Value of projects and companies

5.5. Switch effect causes surprises

5.6. Examples of surprises

5.7. Stability

5.8. Designer of natural and artificial processes

Logic Flow of Process Tree Theory

Conclusions

Key Points in Each Chapter

Endnotes

To Shaobin, Yubing, and Lucy

Acknowledgements

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Cambridge University Library, where I sourced many of the references during the last a few years when I finally wrote up my thoughts. Moreover, reading, writing, and walking in Cambridge University gave me inspiration because it seemed that I could sense the history and footprints of great thinkers, including Newton and Darwin, through each path and at every corner in the campus.

Although the first draft of this book was written during 2011-12, my interest in the issues started when I was an undergraduate student during 1981-85. I appreciated the experience and education in my mother university, Beijing Agricultural University, which later became China Agricultural University. I often went to the library to read journals and books outside of my major, including philosophy of sciences and works about Einstein and Heisenberg. My major was plant biochemistry and physiology, but the side interests and readings laid the foundation for me to be able to pursue and establish the process tree theory.

My thanks go to my teachers who helped me become a biological scientist. They include my middle school and high school teachers: Mr Dasheng Zheng, Mr Zhongduo Lei, Mrs Xiuyun Chi; university teachers: Prof Longfei Yan, Prof Chenghou Lou, Mrs Shulan Liu, Mr Jianguo Gao; master of science degree supervisor: Prof Jigeng Li; and my Ph.D. supervisor, Prof Mike Gale; and other supervisors and mentors in John Innes Centre: Prof Rodger Hall, Prof Jeff Davis, Prof John Snape and Prof Noel Ellis. I have, unfortunately, forgotten the names of the other teachers that I feel I should include in the list. I am deeply in debt to them, and their images are still in my mind beside those mentioned above.

I would like to thank my parents, Prof Shihao Zhu and Mrs Hui Yu. I also thank my grandparents, Mrs Sunjun Han, Prof Youtai Yu and Mrs Yongzhen Ma, for their care and influence. I read the complete set of works by Lu Xun, one of the influential writers before New China was established, at my grandpa, Prof Youtai Yu’s, home. I also benefited from a series of old books, 100,000 Whys, which my grandpa gave to me.

My thanks also go to my two daughters, Yubing and Lucy. Yubing, who graduated from Cambridge University and is working as a lawyer in Alan and Overy in London, edited a few parts of the book more than once. She has not only been a good listener but also a good discussion partner for many topics. My first breakthrough was the concept of potential, for which I used a bow and arrow to illustrate. This concept trigged the development of the process tree model. Yubing was the first person who listened and gave me feedback about this concept. Lucy was only fourteen years old when I poured out my ideas to her as I drove her to school and her table-tennis tournaments. Her clever thoughts, questions, and comments surprisingly inspired me to clarify my thoughts on many points, including the necessary factor axiom. When Lucy was a baby, the way she learned to speak inspired me to create the method of synchronised listening for learning foreign languages, from which I improved my spoken English.

Finally, I am very grateful to my wife, Shaobin, who is a histopathologist. Both her criticism and her encouragement helped me, although the former was far more frequent than the latter. Her criticism is always the best way to calm me down when I am big-headed or when I get carried away. On top of it all, her love saved me when I was experiencing my worst failures and helped me to stand on my feet again.

Preface

This book introduces a theory that can be used to explain, analyse and predict the complex phenomena in everyday life. The theory provides a framework that can model activities at individual, institutional, national and international levels. It also elucidates a rational way to look into a complicated scenario and points out the best way to achieve a target with certainty. It is a systematic guidance for success at different levels.

Despite of the complexity and uncertainty in everyday life, it is found that how everything is formed, structured, associated, networked and influenced are based on or at least can be expressed by a coherent framework, namely the process tree, with a universally simple internal structure and relationships.

Readers will find that this book answers many questions, which have puzzled me for a long time. Some of the questions are listed here to provide an initial taste.

How to achieve a target in a complicated scenario? What is the best way towards certainty of success? Are there ways towards certainty of