How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)

By David Goldman

You’ve heard about the Death of the West.
But the Muslim world is on the brink of an even greater collapse.

WILL WE GO DOWN IN THE IMPLOSION?

Thanks to collapsing birthrates, much of Europe is on a path of willed self-extinction. The untold story is that birthrates in Muslim nations are declining faster than anywhere else—at a rate never before documented. Europe, even in its decline, may have the resources to support an aging population, if at a terrible economic and cultural cost. But in the impoverished Islamic world, an aging population means a civilization on the brink of total collapse— something Islamic terrorists know and fear.

Muslim decline poses new threats to America, challenges we cannot even understand, much less face effectively, without a wholly new kind of political analysis that explains how desperate peoples and nations behave.

In How Civilizations Die, David P. Goldman—author of the celebrated “Spengler” column read by intelligence organizations worldwide—reveals how, almost unnoticed, massive shifts in global power are remaking our future.

Goldman reveals:

• How extinctions of peoples, cultures, and civilizations are not unthinkable—but certain
  
• How for the first time in world history, the birthrate in the West has fallen below replacement level
  
• Why birthrates in the Muslim world are falling even faster
  
• Why the “Arab Spring” is the precursor of much more violent change in the Islamic world
  
• Why looming demographic collapse may encourage Islamic terrorists to “go for broke”
  
• How the United States can survive the coming world turmoil
  

In How Civilizations Die, David P. Goldman has written an essential book for understanding what lies in the future for America and the world.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Regnery Publishing
• Release date: Sep 19, 2011
• ISBN: 9781596982802

David Goldman

David Goldman received his B.S. from Yale University in 1974, graduating in only three years, and his M.D. degree from the University of Texas Medical Branch in 1978. He joined the intramural program of the National Institutes of Health in 1979, and is currently Clinical Director and Chief of the Laboratory of Neurogenetics of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Throughout his career, he has identified genetic factors responsible for inherited differences in behavior, his laboratory pioneering in functional genomics – how differences in DNA sequence translate into behavioral differences from molecule to intermediate brain processes to behavior. He is recipient of many awards for his research and is one of the most highly cited scientists in biological psychiatry. His laboratory is currently exploring the genetics of substance use disorders and related health problems.

Reviews for How Civilizations Die

[leandrod-2 · Rating: 4 out of 5 stars]

Augustinian geopolitical realism by a modern orthodox Jew. What a ride!

[jarlalex_1 · Rating: 3 out of 5 stars]

Not the best-written in the world, but presents a pretty clear demographic fact that many are unwilling to admit - even when they're intellectually aware of it. Put another way, I'd be hesitant to cite this as a principal source in an academic paper, but it would make for a useful discussion point.

[dcunning11235 · Rating: 2 out of 5 stars]

There are interesting figures/facts about population trends, projections and reproduction rates here.

Is there a coming demographic crisis coming in e.g. Middle Eastern countries? Possibly. I myself have wondered what the heck the various countries and peoples of the region will do in 30 or 50 years when oil really begun to tap out. Poor European countries? Possibly there as well.

But I don't know how much weight I give his projections... do I really believe that in 100 years Germany will be have lost 98% of its population... no. That Japan, Spain, Germany, etc. will have "ceased to exist." No.

Was "Spengler" using hyperbole? Possibly, but he sure doesn't sound like it. And, generally, the 20th time someone has repeated a claim you can be safe in assuming they are serious.

Do I give much credence to his other thoughts here? No. It is a hodgepodge dubious assertions and half-supported claims, contradictory moral reasoning, and cheerleading for Christianity of a certain flavor hitched together with Judaism of certain flavor. He doesn't seem to have seriously addressed a single competing theory in 270 pages; that right there is a problem for me.

While the book points out some interesting -and, I agree, potentially very serious- demographic issues, it really falls down on doing any kind of real analysis. And while I sort of knew what I was getting into re: the author's religio-cultural-political beliefs, I'm still disappointed he was *so* beholden to them (to the point of illogic in a handful of places.)

Lastly, while the swath of countries from Turkey to Pakistan are surely "benighted" (a word I think he would approve of) his evident... distaste?.. for the people is, ah, a bit much. I came away with a definite sense that he is dancing on the graves of millions of people, before they've even died. That was only a sense "between the lines", to be clear, but I don't think I'm 100% off. If "Islam" goes down in a firey multi-decade convulsion, then the author's religio-cultural-political side "wins." I think that is the sense that comes across, his happiness with that "win", and a morally bankrupt callousness, to put it mildly, to the misery along the way.

I'm giving 2 stars, despite the obvious issues, because there is enough here to make you think, especially if you are not a demographer.

[vpfluke · Rating: 4 out of 5 stars]

This was an intriguing book to read. David Goldman frequently overstates his case against the possibilities of change in civilizations. The Scandinavians of today do not resemble the Vikings of a 1,000 years ago. So, one can ask if there is substance to the hope of Americans for Mideastern countries being able to participate comfortably in the global sphere. But Goldman does bring out interesting concerns about population decline in the East, but also the decline of religion as well as population in the West.