Alberta Oil Sands: Energy, Industry and the Environment

By Elsevier Science

At 170 billion barrels, Canada's Oil Sands are the third largest reserves of developable oil in the world. The Oil Sands now produce about 1.6 million barrels per day, with production expected to double by 2025 to about 3.7 million barrels per day. The Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeastern Alberta is the largest of the three oil sands deposits. Bitumen in the oil sands is recovered through one of two primary methods – mining and drilling. About 20 per cent of the reserves are close to the surface and can be mined using large shovels and trucks. Of concern are the effects of the industrial development on the environment. Both human-made and natural sources emit oxides of sulphur and nitrogen, trace elements and persistent organic compounds. Of additional concern are ground level ozone and greenhouse gases.

Because of the requirement on operators to comply with the air quality regulatory policies, and to address public concerns, the not-for-profit, multi-stakeholder Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) has since 1997 been closely monitoring air quality in AOSR. In 2008, WBEA assembled a distinguished group of international scientists who have been conducting measurements and practical research on various aspects of air emissions and their potential effects on terrestrial receptors. This book is a synthesis of the concepts and results of those on-going studies. It contains 19 chapters ranging from a global perspective of energy production, measurement methodologies and behavior of various air pollutants during fossil fuel production in a boreal forest ecosystem, towards designing and deploying a multi-disciplinary, proactive, and long-term environmental monitoring system that will also meet regulatory expectations.

• Covers measurement of emissions from very large industrial sources in a region with huge international media profile
• Validation of measurement technologies can be applied globally
• The new approaches to ecological monitoring described can be applied in other forested regions

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Nov 7, 2012
• ISBN: 9780080977676

Book preview

Contributors

Numbers in Parentheses indicate the pages on which the author’s contributions begin.

K. Baumann (315), Atmospheric Research & Analysis, Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA

S. Berryman (315), Integral Ecology Group Ltd., P.O. Box 23012, Cook St. RPO, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

J.D. Blum (373), Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

L.-W.A. Chen (145, 171), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

J.C. Chow (145, 171), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

T. Dann (47), Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

M.J.E. Davies (267), Stantec Consulting, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

J.D. Demers (373), Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

E.S. Edgerton (315), Atmospheric Research & Analysis, Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA

V. Etyemezian (145), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

J.M. Fort (315), Atmospheric Research & Analysis, Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA

J.D. Gleason (373), Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

J.R. Graney (315, 343, 427), Geological Sciences and Environmental Studies, Binghamton University, Binghamton, New York, USA

M.C. Hansen (47, 93), Wood Buffalo Environmental Association, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

D.R. Jaques (219), Ecosat Geobotanical Surveys Inc., North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

R.K.M. Jayanty (391), RTI International, Post Office Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, Durham, North Carolina, USA

M.W. Johnson (373), Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

S.D. Kohl (145, 171), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

S. Krupa (311, 315, 343, 373, 391, 427, 469), Plant Pathology, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA

M.S. Landis (315, 343, 373, 427), US EPA, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, Durham, North Carolina, USA

A.H. Legge (93, 113, 171, 193, 219), Biosphere Solutions, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

M. Lowey (35), Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy(ISEEE), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

B. Mayer (243), Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

D.G. Maynard (193), Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, West Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

E.M. Nosal (93), Wood Buffalo Environmental Association, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

M. Nosal (93), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

R.J. O’Brien (113), VOC Technologies & Portland State University, Damascus/ Portland, Oregon, USA

R.L. Orbach (1), The Energy Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA

J.P. Pancras (427), Allion Science and Technology, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA

K.E. Percy (47, 113, 171, 193, 427, 469), Wood Buffalo Environmental Association, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

B.C. Proemse (243), Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

J.H. Raymer (391), RTI International, Post Office Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, Durham, North Carolina, USA

D.A. Sodeman (171), County of San Diego Air Pollution Control District, San Diego, California, USA

R.K. Stevens (427), Cary, North Carolina, USA - Formerly with U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA

G. Stringham (19), Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

W.B. Studabaker (391), RTI International, Post Office Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, Durham, North Carolina, USA

X.L. Wang (145, 171), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

J.G. Watson (145, 171), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

Acknowledgments

The Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) is an independent, not-for-profit organization that operates through consensus among its membership. Sincere appreciation is extended to the WBEA nongovernmental, governmental, aboriginal, and industry members who from 2008 have supported this work and continue to do so. Financial support for the May 23 International Symposium Alberta Oil Sands: Energy, Industry and the Environment and the associated 43rd International Air Pollution Workshop was provided by the following WBEA industry members: Suncor Energy Inc., Syncrude Canada Ltd., Shell Albian Sands, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Nexen Inc., Imperial Oil, Total E&P Canada, Devon Canada, Husky Energy, MEG Energy, Conoco Phillips Canada, and Williams Energy, with additional assistance from Finning Canada.

The key role of my WBEA science advisor colleagues Drs. Allan Legge (Biosphere Solutions, Calgary, AB) and Douglas Maynard (NRCan-Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC) in monitoring program design, as well as the science advisory contributions from our university/agency colleagues Drs. Sagar Krupa (University of Minnesota, USA), Robert Stevens (retired U.S.EPA, USA), Dale Johnson (University of Nevada, USA), Tom Nash III (University of Wisconsin, USA), Sandy McLaughlin (retired Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA), Mike Miller (Argonne National Laboratory, USA), Ted Hogg (NRCan-Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC), Ken van Rees (University of Saskatchewan, SK), Suzanne Visser (University of Calgary), and Neil Cape (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK) is gratefully acknowledged.

The WBEA member committees have played an important role in providing regional context, scoping, and oversight of the work contained within this book. The WBEA Terrestrial Environment Effects Committee and its Science Subcommittee are especially recognized here, as they have enabled most of the scientific content presented. The role of the former WBEA Executive Director Carna MacEachern for her early vision in seeing the need for the new science represented in this book cannot be underestimated.

Appreciation is extended to all the peer reviewers whose incisive and constructive comments enhanced the final quality of the chapters. The editor duly acknowledges the dedicated, expert, and diligent editorial assistance provided by Dr. Sagar Krupa, which made the publication of this book a reality in 2012.

Kevin E. Percy

Preface

Since the Industrial Revolution began in the 1750s, humans have increasingly depended upon the burning of fossil fuels for essential activities such as heating, cooking, manufacturing, electricity, and transportation. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development reported that, since 1800, the world’s per capita income has increased 10-fold, while the world’s population has increased over sixfold. According to the Nobel Laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr., … the living standards of the masses of ordinary people have begun to undergo sustained growth … Nothing remotely like this economic behavior has happened before. To fuel this growth, the world initially turned to coal and, post WWII, oil. In 1900, global crude oil (petroleum) production was minimal, rose steadily to approximately 10 Mb/d (barrels per day) in 1950, and has risen exponentially ever since. Between 2003 and 2011, annual global oil and condensate production has ranged between 72 and 74 Mb/d, despite concerted efforts made on efficiencies in combustion technology. Against this backdrop, global energy demand is expected to grow by 39% by 2030, or 1.6% annually. By 2030, BP (http://www.BP.com) predicts that coal, oil, and gas together will contribute to meeting most of this demand.

The Canadian Oil Sands deposits are located in the Peace River, Cold Lake, and Athabasca deposits in Alberta and Saskatchewan (Figure 1). Together, they comprise the third largest oil reserve in the world, with 170 Bb recoverable using today’s technology. Eighty percent of the oil can be recovered by in situ drilling and 20% by mining where deposits are sufficiently close to the surface. Canada’s oil sands currently contribute 1.5 Mb/d toward meeting this global demand. By 2030, this is expected to have increased by 2 Mb/d. The oil sands are predicted to contribute 12% of the global production increase expected to have occurred by 2030!

Figure 1 A map of Alberta Oil Sands Region (AOSR).

Courtesy of: Wikipedia.

With any large-scale industrial development activity comes the challenge of managing it in a sustainable manner, in order to reduce its impact on the environment. Alberta’s oil sands lay under 142,220 km² of Boreal Forest. Until the 1960s, this area was largely undisturbed. In recent years, the development in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR), in particular, has come under intense public scrutiny. During 2010 and 2011, the federal and provincial governments convened expert panels to examine current monitoring activities and to recommend enhancements. These reports were made public and a Joint Canada/Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring (http://www.ec.gc.ca; http://www.environment.alberta.ca) has emerged.

It is noteworthy that one monitoring organization in the AOSR embarked on a scientific enhancement of its activities several years prior to the panels being convened. The Fort McMurray-based Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA; http://www.wbea.org) traces its origins back to 1985, when the Air Quality Task Force was established to address environmental concerns raised by the Fort McKay First Nation (aboriginal community). In 1997, WBEA was officially incorporated under the Alberta Societies Act. Today, WBEA operates as a consensus-driven, independent, community-based not-for-profit association with 29 members representing nongovernmental, governmental, aboriginal, and industry sectors. Its membership along with a professional staff and science advisors plan, execute, and oversee large air-quality and terrestrial ecosystem monitoring programs, along with human exposure monitoring currently focused on odors.

Recent federal and provincial expert panels have positively recognized WBEA for its scientific underpinnings and capacity in environmental monitoring, evaluation, and reporting. In mid-2007, WBEA members supported a review of the terrestrial monitoring program. This external scientific review led to a proposal from science advisors to members in the fall of 2007 for a major scientific enhancement in both the extent and the intensity of monitoring activities. With a significant funding increase on January 1, 2008, which has been sustained since, WBEA has built an international, multidisciplinary scientific team of over 35 senior scientists who are measuring and monitoring the environment at key points along the air pollutant pathway.

This volume presents the results from a number of the WBEA projects conducted as part of the strategic science enhancement begun in 2008. We believe that this practical science will contribute needed new knowledge and information, and inform stakeholders, the public, and decision makers engaged in air-quality regulation and environmental management.

Kevin E. Percy

Book Editor

Introduction

The Oxford Dictionary (http://oxforddictionaries.com) defines the adjective practical as … concerned with the actual doing or use of something rather than with theory and ideas; or, … likely to succeed or be effective in real circumstances; feasible. In January 2008, the Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) embarked on a multiyear enhancement of its environmental monitoring activities. Projects enabled by a threefold, step-change increase in funding from WBEA members were at the outset designed to undertake practical, science-based measurement and monitoring. Between 2008 and 2011, contracted principal investigators from Canadian, U.S., and European universities, research labs, and governmental agencies carried out a number of projects in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region of northeastern Alberta, Canada. Critical infrastructure and staff were put in place by WBEA in support of air-quality and forest-health monitoring, and the determination of potential effects of air emissions from oil sands development on the boreal ecosystem.

On May 23, 2011, in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, WBEA hosted the International Symposium Alberta Oil Sands: Energy, Industry and the Environment in conjunction with the 43rd International Air Pollution Workshop (May 24–26). This book comprises chapters with content presented at the symposium, as well as others representing selected WBEA projects initiated under the 2008 science enhancement. Bound together, these chapters provide original scientific data on emissions, transport, deposition, and source contributions to terrestrial receptors. This information will be used by decision makers on air-shed management, contribute new knowledge to support environmental impact assessments, inform stakeholders and the public on air quality, provide guidance on what has been learned since 2008 and what is still needed to achieve a more holistic evaluation of the role of oil sands development on the air and terrestrial environments.

This book is organized into six sequential groupings of chapters followed by a summary chapter. We begin with three chapters that review energy production and the history and place of Canada’s oil sands in that production and provide a summary of environmental challenges being addressed by the oil sands producers. Next, we move to the three chapters that report on air quality, new approaches to processing air-quality data, and new technology being used to co-measure odor-causing compounds. Two chapters follow that report on real-world characterization of emissions from fixed (stacks) and mobile (mine heavy haulers) sources operating in the region. Then, the reader will find three chapters that describe a now-deployed deposition/ecosystem-based approach to tracing the fate of emissions and assessing the health of boreal forests that receive those emissions. Chapter 12 that follows summarizes some 30 + years of regional source plume dispersion modeling carried out within the AOSR, reports on a recent model run, and relates model predictions to actual measured WBEA receptor data.

Chapters 13–18 comprise the WBEA Receptor Modeling (Source Apportionment) Project that uses original receptor and source data to link the air-quality and terrestrial systems. This section begins with the introductory Chapter 13 authored by the project leader and providing the rationale, theory, and practice for the five interlinked studies. Chapter 14 evaluates the utility of naturally occurring epiphytic tree lichens in modeling approaches and presents new methodologies developed to measure a wide range of heavy metals (e.g., As) in the AOSR. Chapters 15 and 16 report on novel studies in which stable lead and mercury isotopes analyzed in the lichens across the region have been used to attribute receptor concentrations and to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic sources. Chapter 17 reports novel data on PAH concentrations in lichens and their potential use in source attribution. Chapter 18 concludes this grouping and brings individual study results into the wider context. For the first time in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, concentrations of sulfur, nitrogen, and trace elements measured in lichens at 359 sites extending out over 150 km from oil sands plants and mines have been apportioned back to source type and contributions to deposition estimated in a scientifically defensible manner.

In 2005, Dr. Raymond L. Orbach (later undersecretary for science, U.S. Department of Energy), delivered an address to the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in which he stressed the need for scientific literacy. This address eloquently presented the case for what I have termed above practical science. It is logical then that Dr. Orbach was invited to be the first speaker at the May 23 Symposium and to be the author of the first chapter in this book.

The concluding chapter entitled Concluding Remarks attempts to put the book’s content into context. While WBEA members can be justly proud of the contents of this book, they also recognize that this represents one contribution to improved understanding of the environmental effects from oil sands development. The book, therefore, concludes with some insights by several chapter authors and discussion gleaned from the closing symposium panel discussion to summarize key findings in light of what has been learned, the gaps, challenges, and work remaining.

Kevin E. Percy

Book Editor

Introduction to the Book Series

Environmental pollution has played a critical role in human lives since the early history of the nomadic tribes. During the past millennium, the Industrial Revolution, increased population growth, and urbanization have been the major determinants in shaping our environmental quality.

Initially, primary air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and particulate matter were of concern. For example, the killer fog of London in 1952 resulted in significant numbers of human fatalities leading to the advent of major new air pollution control measures. During the 1950s, scientists also began to understand the cause and atmospheric mechanisms for the formation of the Los Angeles photochemical smog. We now know that surface-level ozone and photochemical smog are a worldwide problem at regional, continental, and intercontinental scales. As economic development, urbanization, and the combustion of fossil fuels continues worldwide, large geographic areas of agriculture, forestry, and natural resources, including their biological diversity, are increasingly at risk. As scientific advances increase our understanding of atmospheric photochemical processes, air pollutant transport, their transformation and removal mechanisms, so too is the effort increasing to control the emissions of primary pollutants (sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide).

During the mid-1970s, environmental concerns regarding the occurrence of acidic precipitation began to emerge to the forefront. Since then, our knowledge of the adverse effects of air pollutants on human health and welfare (visibility, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and materials) has begun to rise substantially. Similarly, studies have been directed to improve our understanding of the accumulation of persistent inorganic (heavy metals) and organic (polyaromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls) chemicals in the environment and their impacts on sensitive receptors, including human beings. Use of fertilizers (excess nutrient loading) and herbicides and pesticides in both agriculture and forestry and the related aspects of their atmospheric transport, fate, and deposition and their direct runoff through the soil and impacts on ground and surface water quality and environmental toxicology have become issues of much concern.

In recent times, environmental literacy has become an increasingly important factor in our lives, particularly in the so-called developed nations. Currently, the scientific, public, and political communities are much concerned with the increasing global-scale air pollution and the consequent global climate change. There are efforts being made to totally ban the use of chlorofluorocarbon and organobromine compounds at the global scale. However, during this millennium, many developing nations will become major forces governing environmental health, as their populations and industrialization grow at a rapid pace. There is an ongoing international debate regarding policies and the mitigation strategies to be adopted to address the critical issue of increasing energy demand being met by combustion of fossil fuels and climate change. Human health and environmental impacts and risk assessment and the associated cost–benefit analyses, including global economy through cross-border resource management, are germane to this controversy.

An approach to understanding environmental issues in general, and in most cases, mitigation of the related problems, requires a systems analysis and a multi- and interdisciplinary philosophy. There is an increasing scientific awareness to integrate environmental processes and their products in evaluating the overall impacts on various receptors. As momentum is gained, this approach constitutes a challenging future direction for our scientific and technical efforts.

The objective of Developments in Environmental Science is to facilitate the publication of scholarly works that address any of the described topics. In addition to edited or single- and multiauthored books, the series also considers conference proceedings for publication. The emphasis of the series is on the importance of the subject topic, the scientific and technical quality of the content, and timeliness of the work.

Sagar Krupa

Chief Editor, Book Series

Chapter 1

Energy Production: A Global Perspective

R.L. Orbach¹

The Energy Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA

¹Corresponding author: e-mail: [e-mail]

Abstract

Canada has the world’s third largest oil reserves, with 97% of these (170 Bb, billion barrels) in the oil sands. Of these, 20% are recoverable with mining, while most (80%) are recoverable only by drilling (in situ). Production from the oil sands has been rapidly increasing (millions of barrels of oil per day): 0.1 (1980), 1.5 (2010), and 3.5 (2030) expected. In 2010, there were 91 active oil sand projects, and of these, four were mining with the remainder using various in situ recovery methods. It is in this context that future world demand for energy resources will be analyzed. In the next two decades, as the world appetite for energy continues to increase, the oil sands will produce one-eighth of the total increase in global oil-based liquids. The major presence of oil sand production in the world’s energy markets will mean that many of the same constraints that face major producers elsewhere will be felt in Alberta. This includes CO2 production associated with global climate change. Current methods for CO2 capture and storage are not cost-effective, and have been slow (if not absent) to introduce at scale. This chapter describes research into some potentially economically feasible approaches: cost-effective capture and storage of CO2 through energy production from methane-saturated saline aquifers, fuels from sunlight without CO2 production, and large-scale electrical energy storage for intermittent (and even constant) electricity generating sources.

Keywords

Energy; Canada Oil Sands; Hubbert’s peak; oil production; energy consumption; CO2 capture; sunlight to fuels; electrical energy storage

1.1 The Situation

The world’s commercial energy usage will continue to increase. The BP Energy Outlook (2011) displays an inexorable global increase in energy appetite by some 46% over the next 20 years (Figure 1.1). The analysis of this chapter will focus on this period, but there are some who are not convinced that this increase can go on indefinitely. An example is the warning by Patzek (2012) that the original predictions of Hubbert are with us now. Figure 1.2 displays Hubbert’s curve for Global oil and condensate production, superimposed with the actual history of world production of crude oil (petroleum) and the associated lease condensate liquids…Over the last 8 years, this rate oscillated around 72-74 (millions of barrels of oil per day) despite of the whole world trying to do its best to meet the ever-growing demand for petroleum. From Patzek’s perspective, it is remarkable that Hubbert was only off by a factor of two in his predictions. Patzek contends that the supergiant oilfields have now been discovered and it is increasingly unlikely that more will be discovered in the future. This perspective suggests that there is not much more time to develop alternatives to combustion of oil for transportation. Hubbert’s curve falls precipitously by 2050, so that there is a mere 40 years to find alternatives. And, as discussed below, these alternatives must be essentially CO2 free. This is a tall order.

Figure 1.1 Global energy consumption by type from 1870 through 2030. TOE, tons of oil equivalent.

Modified from BP Energy Outlook (2011).

Figure 1.2 Hubbert’s original prediction of global oil production. Superposed is the actual history of the world’s production of crude oil (petroleum) and the associated lease condensate liquids in millions of barrels of oil per day, 10 ⁶ bbl/d.

Modified from Patzek (2012).

The expectation is that liquids production will increase to meet growth in consumption. Figure 1.3 suggests this may be true for the 20-year period covered by the BP Energy Outlook, but it would be prudent to express concern beyond. Within these 20 years, the mix of liquids that satisfy the growth in consumption will change on a global scale. Figure 1.3 projects the liquids supply by type.

Figure 1.3 Total liquids growth. This is based on the assumption that liquids production meets growth in consumption. NGL, natural gas liquids; OPEC, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Modified from BP Energy Outlook (2011).

From Figure 1.3, the global liquids supply will rise by about 16.5 Mb/day from 2010 to 2030. But the sources of growth in liquids production will change the global balance. The projection for biofuels production (largely ethanol) is in excess of 6.5 Mb/day by 2030, from 1.8 Mb/day in 2010. First-generation biofuels are expected to account for most of the growth.

Figure 1.3 provides evidence of the significant importance of oil sands to the global liquid supply. In particular, BP projects an increase of 2 Mb/day from 2010 to 2030, amounting to 12% of the increase in global liquids. Local projections are much higher, projecting an increase of 2.5 Mb/day by 2020.

The importance of oil sands to global liquids growth is made even more evident by examining liquids growth from Non-OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries (BP Energy Outlook 2030) in Figure 1.4. It is a major component of the Non-OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) growth over the 20 years from 2010 to 2030.

Figure 1.4 Liquids growth from Non-OECD Countries. OPEC, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; OECD, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

Modified from BP Energy Outlook (2011).

The assumption of hydrocarbons to meet demand takes on a more striking consequence when one considers the consequence of hydrocarbon combustion, and its concomitant contribution to atmospheric concentrations of CO2. As seen from Figure 1.5, hydrocarbon sources (especially coal) will remain major contributors to world electricity production, and are a major source of this greenhouse gas. What is worse, the projection for electricity production from coal and natural gas continues to increase over the next two decades, further exacerbating anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric warming.

Figure 1.5 World electric power generation by source type and year. TWh, terawatt hours.

Modified from BP Energy Outlook (2011).

Breaking down the Non-OECD and OECD contributions to world CO2 production (Figure 1.6), it becomes clear that the former will be the major contributor over the next two decades, even while the OECD countries begin to restrain their CO2 production. By 2030, the Non-OECD output of CO2 is projected to be more than twice that of OECD countries. Further, hydrocarbon production of CO2 continues to increase, with coal being an ever-increasing bad actor.

Figure 1.6 Projected world production of CO 2 by source type and nation clusters.

Modified from BP Energy Outlook (2011).

This alarming prediction is often softened by the exhortation to conserve. Put in the simplest term, if we use less electricity, we burn less coal, and therefore we emit less CO2. The problem is that, historically, that does not happen. This is often referred to as Jevons’ Paradox after the nineteenth century economist William Stanley Jevons. Put directly: Improving economic efficiency enables the creation of more new energy uses than energy savings. The net effect is to increase the rate of resource depletion (Jevons, 1866). P.F. Henshaw put it most clearly in Figure 1.7: CO2 is being produced at the same increasing rate as total energy use. New clean energy sources are not replacing any fossil fuel use.

Figure 1.7 World growth, energy, CO 2, and energy efficiency, indexed to relative rates of growth with GDP = 1 in 1971.

Modified from P. F. Henshaw.

The consequences are stark. Keeping CO2 production at the same increasing rate as total energy use will lead to an explosive atmospheric concentration. Indeed, even keeping CO2 emissions constant will lead to increasing atmospheric concentrations over time. As Figure 1.8 shows that only through reductions of CO2 emissions by 80% can one stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the 2050 target of 80% reduction of CO2 is required, as difficult as it is, if the CO2 atmospheric concentration is to be kept constant.

Figure 1.8 Two plots displaying the consequence of increasing, stable, 80% less emissions rate of CO 2 in comparison to atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 , respectively. GtC, Global fossil CO 2 emissions (GtC/year); GtC = 1/3.67.

Modified from National Academies Press (2010).

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been increasing since 1880, when the world energy use of coal surpassed that of wood, rising from a historical value of 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) to today’s concentration in excess of 390 ppmv, and continuing to increase. Is there evidence that atmospheric temperatures have increased, as one would assume from an increase in greenhouse gasses?

Figure 1.9 displays the evidence for warming of the lower atmosphere from 1980 through 2010 (Santer et al., 2011). On the one hand, the upper curve displays clear evidence for a monotonic increase in atmospheric temperature when a moving average is taken over sufficiently many years (20 in this instance). On the other hand, for a moving average of only 10 years, there appear to be periods where atmospheric temperature changes are relatively flat in time. The difficulty arises from the noise in atmospheric temperature measurements. Santer et al., 2011 show that when averaging over a 10-year period, the fluctuations are comparable to the temperature change (i.e., the signal to noise is roughly unity). However, when averaging over periods longer than 17 years, the temperature change is four times the fluctuations (i.e., the signal to noise is four). Hence, results presented in Figure 1.9 are evidence of consistent warming over a period of 30 years.

Figure 1.9 Differing time average intervals for atmospheric temperature changes. Note that a 20-year moving average displays a monotonic increase of temperature over the full interval period, while a 10-year moving average displays periods of relatively constant temperature.

Modified from Santer et al. (2011).

It is interesting to look at a longer period for atmospheric temperatures, specifically from 1880 when global energy production switched from wood to coal. Figure 1.10 shows that there were periods of modest increases and decreases, but the inexorable trend for temperature increase began in earnest in 1980. What happened in 1980? Nothing. This chapter contends that the increase in 1980 was a consequence of the net anthropogenic increase in CO2 as a consequence of switching from energy generation from biomass fuels to coal in 1880.

Figure 1.10 Temperature changes since the crossover between biomass and coal global energy production in 1880, displayed in Figure 1.11 .

Modified from NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (2011).

Figure 1.11A displays the primary global energy supply from 1700 through the beginning of the twentieth century. There is a crossover in 1880, with a sharp increase in global availability of useful energy at that time. Figure 1.11B displays the atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the same time interval. The increase from a rather stable 280 ppm takes place around 1880, and rises precipitously in proportion to the global availability of useful energy.

Figure 1.11 (A) Modified: Primary (natural source) global energy supply. Though the industrial revolution began much earlier in Great Britain, in 1880 the export of technology from Great Britain to the European continent and to South America began a global increase in energy supply. Modified from Smil (1994). (B) Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 measured from ice core data, and directly from Mauna Loa, Hawaii. CCGG, CCGG Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gasses Group, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

Modified from Smil (1994).

Why the delay in atmospheric temperature increases due to the increase in CO2? The thermal capacity of the upper layers of the ocean is much larger than that of the atmosphere. As a consequence, the upper surface layers of the ocean take roughly a century to come into thermal equilibrium with the lower atmosphere. Hence, what is seen in 1980 was a consequence of the increase in thermal energy of the ocean-atmosphere system. This suggests that temperatures for 100 years beyond 1980 will continue to increase, even if no further CO2were generated. That is, the industrial revolution that spread globally in 1880, and continues to this day, generates increasing temperatures roughly 100 years from when the original levels of anthropogenic CO2 was produced. Put bluntly, the CO2 added to the atmosphere today will result in increased atmospheric temperatures five generations hence. From Figure 1.6, global CO2 generation will continue to increase for at least another 20 years beyond today, increasing atmospheric temperatures at least to 120 years from today.

1.2 Some Remedies

There are few if any easy choices for significant reductions of CO2 emissions, given the global energy appetite exhibited in Figures 1.1 and 1.3. A global response is required, given what appears to be an inexorable increase in atmospheric temperatures, and the need to achieve an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions simply to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations and, presumably, stabilize atmospheric temperatures 100 years hence.

The first target should be coal. Is there an economical process to capture and sequester CO2 economically from coal-fired electric power plants? Next, is there a process to use solar energy to produce fuels for transportation? And, finally, is there a way to store electrical energy at base-load levels so that intermittent sources of electricity such as wind and solar power can respond to demand and stabilize the electricity grid. There are other options available for research and development, but the three options listed seem achievable on time scales of interest.

1.2.1 Cost-Effective Capture and Storage of CO2 Through Energy Production from Saline Aquifers

The current methods for capture and sequestration of CO2 from coal-fired power plants are pure cost, amounting to roughly one-third of the power plants energy. In monetary terms, the cost of capture and sequestration is at least $50 per ton of CO2 and can be as high as $75 per ton, using amine liquids for capture (Rochelle, 2009). This cost is prohibitive in competitive markets, and is probably not supportable in terms of a price on carbon. Recently, as shown in Figure 1.12, a proposal has been put forward that reduces the net cost of capture and sequestration, and adds to the efficiency of capture (Burton and Bryant, 2009).

Figure 1.12 A schematic for cost-effective capture and storage of CO 2 through energy production from saline aquifers.

Modified fromPope (2011).

The production of energy from geothermal aquifers has evolved as a separate, independent technology from the sequestration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in deep saline aquifers. A game-changing new idea combines these two technologies and adds another:

• Dissolution of CO2 into extracted brine which is then reinjected;

• Production of methane from the extracted brine;

• Production of energy from the extracted brine offsets the cost of capture, pressurization, and the subsequent injection of brine containing CO2 back into the aquifer;

• Methane production plus thermal energy offsets the cost of carbon capture and sequestration to a point that it can survive in a competitive market environment without subsidies or a price on carbon.

As noted in Figure 1.12, instead of direct injection of CO2 into an aquifer, saline water is pumped to the surface, and the CO2 captured from the flue gas is injected under modest pressure (∼ 1000 psi) into the water. This immediately reduces the cost of CO2 pressurization. Further, when CO2 contacts water with dissolved methane in it, the methane is expelled from solution resulting in a wave front of methane that can be captured, and then either sold commercially or used to generate the lost electrical energy through CO2 capture. The saline water comes to the surface from original reservoir temperatures of the order of 300 °F. This heat can be used to assist the energy required for CO2 capture, with preliminary estimates suggesting offsets comparable to the value of the released methane. Pressurization is required to return the saline water with injected CO2 into the aquifer, but injection is aided by gravity and less costly energetically than pumping the same amount of CO2 directly into the aquifer. Finally, the saline solution is taken from a different portion of the aquifer than the returned saline water. This provides a much more robust permanence for CO2 storage.

Issues that need further consideration to optimize and predict the potential for production of dissolved methane and geothermal energy by CO2 injection are the following: (1) the locations of suitable aquifers; (2) the volume and concentration of methane in the brine; (3) the most favorable aquifer conditions; (4) the fraction of dissolved methane that can be produced; (5) the best strategies for injecting CO2 and producing methane and geothermal energy; and (6) the best strategy for well types, locations, and the operating conditions. Pursuit of these issues may well provide a vehicle for capture and storage of CO2 from coal-fired power plants that would be attractive economically as well as environmentally.

1.2.2 Solar Energy to Produce Transportation Fuels

Photosynthesis combines CO2, sunlight, and water in plants to produce ATP and NADPH, the fuels or energy that enable them to grow and reproduce (with the production of O2, responsible for our atmosphere). Artificial photosynthesis has been the elusive target for solar energy researchers, but the stability of CO2 has frustrated ready success. At present, an achievable goal is to use sunlight to split water into H2 and O2 through solar-powered photoelectrochemical (PEC) reactions and reactors, as sketched in Figure 1.13.

Figure 1.13 A schematic of the photoelectrochemical splitting of water into H 2 and O 2 .

Modified fromBard (1995).

The production of H2 without CO2 would contribute to reduction of CO2 emissions. Currently, H2 is produced by reforming natural gas, leading to one CO2 molecule produced for every four molecules of H2. A typical petroleum refinery uses roughly a billion cubic feet of H2 a day. If it could obtain H2 without CO2 emissions, it would reduce its carbon footprint by 30% to 40%. So, solar PEC production of H2 is a further example of a carbon remedy.

The core of any practical PEC system involves:

1. Photocatalysts: This material is responsible for the transduction of solar energy into electron–hole pairs. The key needed characteristics are high efficiency of light capture and electron–hole pair formation, high mobility of these carriers, low recombination rates of the carriers, and high stability under irradiation. These should be composed of earth-abundant materials of low cost. It is probable that to attain practical efficiencies, multijunction systems that can capture light across the whole solar spectrum will be needed.

2. Electrocatalysts: These promote the capture of holes at the photocatalyst surface to oxidize water in the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and capture electrons to reduce water in the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). The efficiency of these materials contributes to the overall efficiency of the system. They must also be efficient, stable, and inexpensive.

3. Electrolyte: This should be highly conductive, noncorrosive to photocatalysts and electrocatalysts, environmentally safe, and conducive to both the anodic (OER) and cathodic (HER) reactions.

4. PEC: In integration of the components in steps 1–3, cell design should minimize ion flow resistance; prevent mixing of the evolved hydrogen and oxygen; and design electrodes and flow path to minimize gas stagnation. Preferably, the cells will not require an expensive conductive membrane to separate the anodic and cathodic sites.

A promising approach is through the use of semiconducting metal oxides. New tools (Liu et al., 2010) allow for a combinatorial approach for making a multitude of different complex compositions of metal oxides, all unique, and testing them rapidly for their promise as photoelectrocatalysts. The method is based on scanning electrochemical microscopy. Broad arrays of potential active materials and structures may be examined using this rapid new technique as shown for Cd–In–Bi oxides in Figure 1.14.

Figure 1.14 A display of photoelectrochemical activity for an array of different compounds of Cd–In–Bi oxide. The bright spots, labeled A, B, and C, represent Cd–In–Bi concentration ratios of 40:50:10, 30:60:10, and 20:70:10 (atom),