A week before the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of his country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a sombre warning that Ukraine would fall without more long-range weapons, drones and air support. The February 24 anniversary is one that neither side will relish: for Russian President Vladimir Putin, a “special operation” that was meant to be over in weeks has cost the lives of more than 300,000 soldiers, according to a US intelligence report. The capture of the strategic eastern town of Avdiivka on February 17 provides a timely boost for Putin on the eve of presidential elections.
Ukraine has lost an estimated 70,000 soldiers and at least 11,000 civilians – although estimates of both sides’ casualties are open to dispute. According to the UN, 40% of Ukraine’s current population of about 37 million (more than 6 million have fled abroad) need humanitarian assistance. With the absence of a realistic diplomatic solution, 2024 is proving to be a race for both sides to replenish and resupply their reserves, both using increasingly aggressive measures.
But Zelenskyy is finding it difficult to extract weapons and other support from Western allies distracted by the Middle East and their own economic and political circumstances. The US Congress’s delay to a vote on a US$60 billion military aid package is the latest blow. Zelenskyy has warned that the drip-feed of arms is playing into Putin’s hands, allowing him time to rebuild and replenish.
SPRING
In April 2023, I visit Kyiv for the first time. Curfew has been relaxed until midnight, the